I lived in UK for 10 years, worked for government departments, investment banks and for fund managers. Based on my experience I'll say 1.7069 target will be bubble. Check the ground reality - GDP is bad, unemployment is bad, Govt borrowing is bad, service sector is pretty poor state, oil in northern sea is near empty and overall people trust on government is negative.
If and only if Oil prices reach record levels GBP can outrun others like 2007 when we saw GBPUSD above 2.0000. But 99% analyst will say "no chance". All governments are borrowing money and they will try to keep oil prices below certain level to stimulate economy.
If we are looking for parity GBPUSD & EURUSD by christmas then they must meet at some place. Looking at probability of EURO rise and GBP fall the targets must be 1.5400-1.5800 range.
This may sound bad news for traders but good news for players. Euro is 20% above and Pound is near zero in comparison.
GBPUSD must fall another 700-800 points and EURUSD must rise another 500-600 points. Discount the USD influence, for any traders who bought GBP when they fell last week is bad news. I'll recommend long-term SELL for GBPUSD traders anywhere above 1.64; where as short-term BUY for players as we target 1.65 and if magic-wand start to work my first target 1.7069 will produce 700-800 PIPS. With november on corner and winter trending tendencies all I can say is we are sitting on a fence and follow the trend.
The big surprise will be EURUSD & USDJPY. Both these economies are technically out of recession but will they make "W" double bottom recession. The only hope is USD looses its ground. The forecast just based on fundamentals EURUSD & GBPUSD around 30% & -30% for parity; though my technical factors say no parity and GBPUSD at 1.7069
Global stocks has risen to level that it can crash anytime. This can launch another trend in all pairs. So please negate these theory on event of that -please!!
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