Friday, 13 November 2009

Market Rumours

GBP/USD has bounced from its 1.6554-12 support area, which contained both an uptrend line and its 20-day moving average, says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. However, she looks for this recovery to find resistance between 1.6620-95 and Monday's high of 1.6844, and with divergence on the daily RSI signaling a loss of momentum she would use this rebound as a selling opportunity. On the downside, any break below 1.65 should alleviate upside pressure and open the risk towards 1.6305 and 1.6240. GBP/USD now at 1.6662.

The technical outlook for USD shorts has deteriorated, says Lloyds Banking Group. The USD index has rallied sharply from a fresh '09 low with a potential double bottom in place. In individual currency pairs, many trend reversals have also occurred. AUD/USD and USD/CAD has seen key day reversals while EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/NOK and USD/SEK charts all suggest further upside risk, says the bank.

USD/JPY falls as speculators react to weaker Japan stocks (Nikkei last down 0.3%) which negative for risk sentiment, says senior sales dealer at major bank; but downside also limited as today is regular settlement day for importers, so account-settling related JPY selling from importers likely. Tips 89.70-90.70 band vs last at 90.29; EUR/JPY may fall to 133.50 vs last 134.13; EUR/USD last 1.4867, may rise to 1.4890.

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