Monday, 22 February 2010

Market Rumours

USD/JPY on rising channel, may rise above 92.00 soon as non-Japanese speculators pricing in a bit more JPY-weakness on improving risk appetite, says senior sales dealer at major bank in Tokyo. But pair may not be able to rise above 92.50 as "there's no reason to buy the pair much from a technical mark of 92.50," he says. Adds, pair rising due to last week's Fed discount rate hike, but the move's impact on FX now gone; "it's dangerous to join a bandwagon now." Adds "the Fed's move was normalizing, not tightening of monetary policy," indicating Fed won't hike its key policy rate for time being. Also bolstering expectations Fed on hold for now, U.S. January CPI below view, +0.2% on-month, core inflation down 0.1%, falling for first time since 1982. Pair last 91.67, tips in 91.20-92.20 range.

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