Market Rumours

2010/06/29 21:08=DJ Redbook: US Retail Sales Down 0.6% First 4 Weeks June Vs May
National chain store sales fell 0.6% in the first four weeks of June compared with May, according to Redbook Research's latest indicator of national retail sales released Tuesday. The fall compared to a targeted 0.3% drop. The Johnson Redbook Index also showed seasonally adjusted sales for the period were up 3% from last year, and the targeted increase was 3.2%. Redbook said department and discount stores saw business slow last week because of a normal seasonal lull as consumers spend more time outdoors during the summer months. Discounters saw more emphasis on household basics and consumables and less emphasis on summer apparel and soft goods. Sales for the week were up 2.5% from a year earlier.

2010/06/29 21:07=DJ WORLD FOREX: Dollar, Yen Higher As Investors Seek Safe Havens -2-
TORONTO -The dollar and the yen rallied Tuesday morning, with the euro dropping to its lowest point since 2001 against the yen as nervous investors sought out safe-haven currencies amid worries about global growth and financial system stability. Risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar fell sharply. The flight from risk came 'amid heightened anxiety over the possible stalling of the global economic recovery and the fragility of the banking system,' said currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. The euro has borne the brunt of the adjustment, falling to levels not seen since late 2008 against the pound and probing new record lows against the Swiss franc as well as hitting its lowest level in more than eight years against the yen, they said. Tuesday morning, the euro was at $1.2203 from $1.2276 late Monday, according to EBS via CQG. It was down at Y108.45 from Y109.78, up from its low of Y107.80, also its lowest level since November 2001. It hit an all-time low of CHF1.3239 against the Swiss franc before rebounding modestly to trade at CHF1.3256. The dollar fell to Y88.85 from Y89.41, and was at CHF1.0901 from CHF1.0872 while the pound slipped to $1.5064 from $1.5105. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 86.117 from late Monday's 85.701. Investor flight from risk was apparent across asset markets Tuesday, said Adam Cole, chief currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in London. 'Equity futures are lower [and] bonds are yielding below 3% for the first time in a year. There's a consistency in the theme of risk aversion,' he said. The euro was pressured against the yen by portfolio managers and other investors trimming exposure to the common currency before the end of the April-June quarter this week. Its descent was exacerbated by automated stop-loss selling orders triggered around Y109.50, dealers said. The common currency was being hurt by ongoing concerns about the European Central Bank's plans to refinance a EUR442 billion funding program on Thursday and Greece's announcement of plans to return to the market next month. Further clouding prospects for the dollar this week are expectations that data will reveal weakness in the U.S. economy. The S&P/Case-Schiller housing price index for April will be released at 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT), followed by the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT). 'The U.S. data will likely be bad, and that's all going to help the yen, as people seek a refuge,' said Motonari Ogawa, a senior foreign exchange dealer at Barclays Capital. 'The U.S. yields will probably go even lower if the economic indicators are bad, and that means low Treasury yields and weak equities should persists, which will keep the downward pressure on dollar-yen,' said Ogawa. The Australian dollar dropped against the yen and the dollar as the weaker China share markets encouraged short-term investors to sell the currency, dealers said. China is a key export market for resource-rich Australia. Mitsui Banking. In morning trading, the Australian dollar is at $0.8565, from $0.8722 late Monday, according to EBS via CQG. Canada Morning The Canadian dollar was sharply lower Tuesday morning as it also suffers from the broad investor retreat from risk. Lower crude oil futures accentuated the selling pressures on the Canadian unit. The U.S. dollar was at C$1.0506 from C$1.0352 late Monday. 'The Canadian dollar finds itself at the lower end of the currency performance league this morning as oil prices slide, reflecting the broader worries in the commodity complex today that global growth trends are softening,' said strategists at TD Securities in Toronto.

2010/06/29 17:36DJ UK June Consumer Confidence -11 Vs May -10
LONDON -U.K. consumer confidence fell in June to the lowest level since August last year, according to a survey by the European Commission Tuesday. The U.K. consumer sentiment index declined to -11 in June from May's -10, while the broader economic sentiment index also declined in June to 99.4 from 102.4 in May. The decline in the U.K. was weaker than the overall European Union index which reported no change in the consumer sentiment measure at -15 in June from May, while the EU economic sentiment index declined marginally to 100.1 in June from 100.2 in May. The consumer sentiment survey was conducted ahead of the U.K. emergency budget held June 22, but is likely to have reflected concern about the expected severity of the government's planned spending cuts and tax hikes.

2010/06/29 17:34=DJ DATA SNAP: UK Broad Money Supply Gives Mixed Signals In May
LONDON -The Bank of England's preferred measure of broad money supply growth picked up to a near three-year high in May, but lending to households and businesses marked their lowest annual rates in decades. Figures released by the BOE Tuesday showed broad money supply, excluding financial institutions whose activities distort underlying trends, rose 1.0% on the month, stronger than a 0.3% gain in April. In three-month annualized terms, money supply expanded 9.2%, up from 6.2% in April, and marking the fastest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2007. Those figures indicate that monetary conditions in the U.K. are slowly normalizing, having been severely impaired by the financial crisis. However, other numbers Tuesday illustrated that many problems remain. The BOE data showed that M4 lending to households edged up by 0.1% on the month in May after being flat in April. But in three-month annualized terms it gained only 0.9%, matching April's result as the lowest rate since records began in 1963. The annual rate of 1.4% again matched April and was the joint weakest pace since those records began in the second quarter of 1964. Corporate M4 lending, meanwhile, shrank 0.6% on the month, versus a 0.5% decline in April, while in three-month annualized terms it dropped 5.2%. On the year, corporate M4 lending sank 4.3%, the weakest rate of growth since the second quarter of 1994.

2010/06/29 17:28=DJ DATA SNAP: Euro-Zone Confidence Holds Up In Face Of Crisis
LONDON -The fiscal crisis that threatens the euro zone failed to dent the confidence of consumers and most businesses during June, boosting hopes that the currency area's economic recovery will continue. In a monthly survey published Tuesday, the European Commission's overall Economic Sentiment Indicator, or ESI, rose to 98.7 from 98.4, surprising economists, who had forecast a decline to 98.0. Consumer confidence rebounded somewhat from the sharp falls recorded in May, when the implications of euro-zone efforts to bail out the Greek government began to sink in. The headline measure of consumer sentiment rose to -17 from -18 in May, driven by a slightly more upbeat assessment of the outlook for the economy over the coming 12 months, and a reduced fear of becoming unemployed. The commission's headline measure of industrial confidence was unchanged at -6, a better outcome than the decline to -7 that was expected by economists, while the measure for the services sector rose to 4 from 3. However, sentiment in the construction industry soured, with the commission's headline measure falling to -30 from -28. Economic sentiment in Greece and Spain strengthened after big declines in May, led by the services sector in both nations. In Portugal, economic sentiment continued to weaken. Among the large euro-zone economies that would be expected to foot the bill if further bailouts are needed, economic sentiment strengthened in Germany as a result of a strong pickup in export orders for manufacturers, while it fell sharply in France. A separate measure of the environment for manufacturers in the euro zone--the Business Climate Indicator--was unchanged at 0.37.

2010/06/29 17:04=DJ DATA SNAP: UK May Net Lending Firmer, Mortgage Approvals Flat
LONDON -U.K. net lending to individuals was stronger than expected in May, but mortgage approvals failed to live up to expectations, data from the Bank of England showed Tuesday. Banks, building societies and other lenders approved 49,815 mortgages for house purchase last month, down slightly from 49,828 in April. The total is higher than the 46,571 approvals seen in May last year, but well below the 58,151 level registered in December. Economists were expecting mortgage approvals to increase to 51,500 in May, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey last week. However, the BOE said total net lending to individuals increased by GBP1.52 billion in May after a GBP865 million rise the previous month. Economists were expecting a GBP1.0 billion increase. Net lending secured on dwellings increased by GBP1.18 billion after a GBP979 million rise in April, while net consumer credit gained GBP331 million in May after dropping GBP114 million the previous month. Economists were expecting net mortgage lending to rise GBP1.0 billion in May and net consumer credit to be flat. Bank of England Web site: www.bankofengland.co.uk

2010/06/29 16:42=DJ Forex Focus: The Yen Will Be Back On Top
LONDON -The yen's recent rally is about to get a new lease of life. As the outlook for the global recovery turns more uncertain and as international investors become more risk-averse, safe-haven currencies, such as the yen, are once again to the fore. See how the dollar has started to fall against the yen again: http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/4192 Instead of the Japanese currency suffering because of Japan's own uncertain recovery and the country's massive budget deficit, the yen will extend the gains that have already brought the dollar down from nearly Y95 earlier this year to under Y90 now. The more bearish outlook for the global economy has emerged over the last week or so as economic data has often disappointed expectations. In the U.S., last Friday's downward revision to the country's first-quarter GDP growth is expected to be followed by very soft employment numbers this Friday, as temporary consensus workers drop out of the picture. On a broader level, last weekend's agreement by G20 leaders to halve their deficits by 2013 has contributed to the view that the recovery will prove even more slow and more painful than originally anticipated. Hopes that China might have allowed the yuan to rise, now that its fixed peg to the dollar has been released, have also been dashed. A stronger yuan might have made exports from other major economies more competitive. However, Beijing has so far succeeded in keeping the yuan well capped around recent levels. In the meantime, worries about a European debt crisis aren't going away. Money market conditions remain tight, European banking sector concerns are still high and a major refinancing operation by the European Central Bank this week will very much be the center of market attention. Of equal importance to global sentiment is the political fallout, especially if German Chancellor Angela Merkel fails to get her candidate for a new president through Wednesday's Federal Assembly. 'If it's a defeat, it may spell the end for the government,' warned Steve Barrow, senior currency strategist with Standard Bank. 'Electorate discontent and political change are likely to feed the deep scepticism that exists in the market,' Barrow added. As we have already seen, the yen has continued to rise regardless of the bad news from Japan. Disappointing retail sales data Monday and Japan's exemption from the G20 fiscal cutting accord because the size of its deficits are so massive, failed to put much of a dent in the yen's advance. More spectacular yen gains could well be made elsewhere, with strategists at UBS recommending going short of AUD/JPY in case risk aversion 'flares up again,' intensifying the flows from high-yielders into safe havens. Early Tuesday in Europe, the yen was once again being bought as concerns about U.S. growth, a fall in U.S. Treasury yields, soft data out of Japan and a sharp downward revision to China's leading indicator by the Conference Board sent equities reeling. The Nikkei lost 1.4% and the Shanghai Composite is down as much as 4.0% so far. Concern over the ECB's refinancing operations on Thursday as well as worries about Greek plans to return to funding markets next month were helping to depress the euro. The euro was down at $1.2233 by 0645 GMT from $1.2276 late Monday in New York, according to EBS.

2010/06/29 16:16DJ Key JGB Yield Falls To 7-Year Low On Stronger Yen, Stock Falls
TOKYO -The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield dropped to a seven-year low on Tuesday, as a sharp appreciation of the yen darkened the nation's export-reliant economy and weighed on Tokyo shares, prodding investors to pile into safe-haven assets. Longer-term JGB yields could extend declines as speculation increases that major countries will pursue fiscal austerity down the road, weighing on global economic growth and dragging down stocks, analysts say. Such expectations come after the Group of 20 developed and developing nations over the weekend agreed to at least halve fiscal deficits by 2013 and stabilize debt ratios by 2016. 'With the economic outlook uncertain, investors are not in a position where they can buy risky assets,' said Masashi Shimominami, bond-market analyst at Mizuho Securities. Growing uncertainty over the U.S. economy is driving Treasury yields downward, which should also prompt many players to buy back JGBs actively, he said. Earlier in the day, the key 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped below 3% for the first time since April 2009. 'Long-term yields are falling across the globe. There are no sign that JGB yields will sharply rise soon,' Shimominami added. As of 0600 GMT, the 10-year JGB yield was down 3.5 basis points to 1.115%, the lowest level since August 2003, and lead September JGB futures closed up 0.38 at 141.47. The 20-year yield slid 3.5 basis points to 1.850% and the 30-year yield fell three basis points to 1.920%, making the yield curve flatter. The U.S. dollar briefly slipped to an eight-week low of Y88.60 versus the yen from Y89.41 late Monday in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average ended down 1.3% to 9570.67. Looking ahead, players are paying close attention to June U.S. jobs data due Friday, for clues on whether the U.S. economic recovery remains on track. 'If the data turn out worse than expected, that could strengthen the view that the U.S. central bank won't raise its policy interest rates soon, which could push down both Treasury and JGB yields further,' a trader at a Tokyo securities house said. A Dow Jones Newswires poll of economists forecast that the June U.S. non-farm payrolls report will show a 110,000 drop in the number of jobs, after A gain of 431,000 jobs in May. Another focus is on the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey, slated for released Thursday. Some analysts say that if the results indicate Japan's business sentiment is picking up despite growing fears about the global economy, it might help prevent JGB yields from decreasing sharply.

2010/06/29 15:06DJ Forex Options: Yen Options Down As Spot Stays In Narrow Range
TOKYO -Dollar/yen options fell in Tokyo Tuesday as a narrow trading range in the underlying spot rate weakened demand for hedges against sharp currency moves.But dealers said options prices are unlikely to fall much further as players await key U.S. economic data later this week that could influence the currency markets.The greenback has been trading in a narrow Y89.30-Y89.42 range so far in Asian hours, and that prompted investors to give up trading short-term option contracts, dealers in Tokyo said.If fluctuations in the spot rate remain subdued, options prices usually keep falling as players sell hedging contracts, but that may not be the case this time, several dealers said.'Though the spot is quiet now, you may not want to sell contracts immediately as the currency markets remain somewhat fragile to surprises in economic data,' said an options dealer at a major Japanese bank.Investors are focused on U.S. non-farm payrolls data, due Friday, and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index due later in the global day.Benchmark one-month at-the-money implied volatilities fell to 11.00%/11.70% from 11.10%/11.80% in New York overnight, but they may not fall below 10.50% in the coming days, the options dealer said.

2010/06/29 14:41=DJ WORLD FOREX: Dollar Hits 8-Week Low Vs Yen As China Stocks Slump -3-
TOKYO -The dollar dropped to an eight-week low against the yen in Asia Tuesday as slumping Chinese equities and falling U.S. Treasury yields prompted short-term investors to sell the greenback for its even less risky Japanese counterpart. Risk-sensitive currencies such as the euro and Australian dollar also fell against the yen, which traders said would continue to benefit for the rest of the week on any further falls in global equities. In Tokyo early afternoon trade, the dollar fell to Y88.84, the lowest since May 6. Selling by Japanese exporters for month-end settlements also weighed on the U.S. unit against the yen, dealers said. Further clouding prospects for the dollar this week are expectations that data will reveal weakness in the U.S. economy, dealers said. Housing and consumer confidence data are due later in the global day. An employment report for June due Friday is expected to show the economy shed 110,000 jobs in the month. 'The U.S. data will likely be bad, and that's all going to help the yen, as people seek a refuge,' said Motonari Ogawa, a senior foreign exchange dealer at Barclays Capital. While the dollar may hold above Y88.00 until Friday's non-farm payrolls, if the results are in line or worse than expected, 'it could certainly break that level,' Ogawa said. At 0450 GMT, the dollar traded hands at Y88.84, down from Y89.41 late Monday in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped Tuesday to its lowest level since April 2009, down at 2.994% at 0450 GMT. China's Shanghai Composite Average was down 1.77%, while other bourses in the region also weakened. 'The U.S. yields will probably go even lower if the economic indicators are bad, and that means low Treasury yields and weak equities should persists, which will keep the downward pressure on dollar-yen,' said Barclays Capital's Ogawa. The euro dropped to a three-week low against the yen at Y108.94, as Japanese exporters, portfolio managers and other investors trimmed exposure to the unit before the end of the April-June quarter this week. The common currency's falls were exacerbated by automated stop-loss selling orders triggered around Y109.50, dealers said. At 0450 GMT, the euro traded hands at Y108.96, down from Y109.78 late Monday in New York. The euro was at $1.2264 against the dollar, compared with $1.2276. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies including the euro, was at 85.708 from 85.701. The Australian dollar dropped against the yen and the dollar as the weaker China share markets encouraged short-term investors to sell the currency, dealers said. China is a key export market for resource-rich Australia. The Australian dollar could fall to $0.8600 later this week if China's stock markets remain weak, said Satoshi Okagawa, a senior foreign exchange trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking. At 0450 GMT, the Australian dollar stood at $0.8664.

2010/06/29 13:05=DJ FED WATCH: US States' Budget Woes Only A 'Modest' Drag -SF Fed Report
NEW YORK -Financial problems at the state level are unlikely to send the U.S. economy back into recession, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said Monday. 'State fiscal crises aren't likely to go away soon and will probably get worse before they get better,' bank economists Jeremy Gerst and Daniel Wilson wrote in the release. 'Painful budgetary choices lie ahead for many states, though the drag on the national economy should be modest,' they wrote. State and local government finance issues have been on the minds of economists and policy makers for a while now. Unlike the federal government, states are rather limited in their ability to make up for falling tax receipts, given that most are legally required to run balanced budgets. That often forces local leaders to cut back on spending and investment programs just at the time many economists believe they need to keep the stimulative power of those activities ongoing. The federal government has helped state and local governments deal with this situation by borrowing massive amounts of money and supporting programs that would have otherwise been cut. But the impact of federal stimulus is winding down, and even seemingly politically safe moves like keeping extending unemployment insurance are sputtering out. So why are the San Francisco Fed forecasters hopeful state and local troubles will not be the undoing of the recovery? For one thing, they assert economic activity on a national level is the ultimate determinant of what happens in the states, so the continued gains in activity should eventually aid governments below the federal level. There's also the matter of size. The economists note projected 2010 state budget gaps account for about 1% of GDP, adding 'the combined state budget gaps from 2009 through 2012, as calculated by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, total less than the estimated cost of the 2009 federal stimulus package.' The researchers reckon it will be some time before states get their footing back. Others back them up on this point. A report from earlier in the month by the Rockefeller Institute of Government noted states saw their first increase in tax receipts on a year over year basis in the first quarter, the first such rise since the third quarter of 2008. The good news was limited, as the increase was tied to tax increases in New York and California; most smaller states continued to see tax revenues fall. The Rockefeller report warned signs of trouble in the second quarter 'will push states to take hasty actions for dealing with the shortfall.' Some of the government finance problems now seen in the U.S. are in reality playing out in other nations. A report Friday from J.P. Morgan economist Bruce Kasman warns developed nations are all about to see government spending shift from a supportive stance to one of 'extreme' drag. He said this environment is particularly challenging because central banks are hard pressed to offset the government headwinds, given that most are already providing as much stimulus as they are able to generate.

2010/06/29 12:22DJ UK Business Minister Warns On Aid To Car Makers - Report
LONDON (AFP)--The U.K.'s business minister has warned car makers they can no longer rely on direct government aid, saying the 'emergency' situation in the industry is over, in comments Tuesday in the Financial Times. The country's previous Labour administration offered direct support to the sector as the economic crisis sent new car sales plummeting, notably with a scheme allowing motorists to trade in a vehicle for a discount on a new one. But Business Secretary Vince Cable, who has held the role since his Liberal Democrats formed a coalition last month with the larger Conservative party, ruled out 'direct support' for companies. 'We don't want to go around the country waving a chequebook,' he told the newspaper, in comments the paper said were aimed at car makers as he made his way Monday to a car launch at a Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) factory in central England. 'We're moving away out of an emergency time, and support will come in more indirect ways,' said Cable. 'Not in direct support for companies--we don't have the funding to do that, and it isn't good policy anyway.' The U.K. is currently battling to reduce a record deficit after its worst recession for decades. He said U.S. car maker General Motors Corp. (GM) hadn't approached the government about a grant to produce the Ampera car in the U.K., but added that such 'projects shouldn't depend on government support.' GM is hoping to build the electric Ampera, which goes on sale in late 2011, at its plant in northern England, according to the newspaper. GM operates in most of Europe through its Opel unit, and in the U.K. under the name Vauxhall.

2010/06/29 12:20DJ Japan's Auto Exports +47.1% On Year In May
TOKYO -Japan's exports of cars, trucks and buses increased 47.1% from a year earlier in May, rising for the fifth consecutive month, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said Tuesday. Exports totaled 340,721 vehicles in May, up from 231,590 vehicles in the same month a year earlier, the association said. Website: http://www.jama.or.jp/eng/

2010/06/29 11:14=DJ ECB WATCH: Eyeing Nervous Market As EUR442B 12-Month Tender Ends
FRANKFURT -The European Central Bank appears ready to take steps to keep banks afloat after a mammoth EUR442 billion worth of loans to them come due Thursday.Euro-zone banks borrowed the money a year ago in the ECB's extraordinary tender of 12-month funds.'We will make sure that the EUR442 billion is paid back on July 1,' ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said Friday, adding, 'We are confident that this very large financial transaction can take place without disruptions.'Banks in the region have been preparing for the event, hoarding massive amounts of cash instead of lending it to their peers and ramping up bids in the ECB's liquidity operations.Thursday's expiration of the 12-month tender could cause a liquidity crunch as banks clamor to get what they need in the three-month tender that is due one day earlier.Aware of possible tensions, the ECB will lend out needed funds for three months at an interest rate of 1% on Wednesday. It will also carry out a special six-day operation a day later.'We expect a huge take-up in the upcoming three-month refinancing operation in anticipation of the expiry of the one-year tender,' said RBS economist Nick Matthews. He estimated demand for the funds could top EUR250 billion, which would be an all-time high.Banks--especially from the euro-zone periphery--have been extremely reliant on ECB funding and demand for credit from the central bank has risen sharply since early May.A total of 114 banks participated in the ECB's latest main refinancing operation--up from 101 bidders at last week's auctions. The Eurosystem of central banks from across the euro zone currently provides roughly EUR878 billion in temporary funds to banks in the region.'The ECB, in my view, will be ready to re-implement another one-year tender if conditions deteriorate in the banking sector,' said Julian Callow, an economist at Barclays Capital.The ECB finds itself in a tough situation as it tries to wean European banks off its liquidity drip but, at the same time, tries to contain stress in the banking sector.'That's a very tricky exercise for the ECB to navigate,' Callow said. 'Of course, the ECB is replacing the 12-month funds with three-month and six-months tenders. But the expiry of the 12-month tender will result in a shortening of the maturity profile,' putting more pressure on banks to look for funds elsewhere.

2010/06/29 06:19=DJ WORLD FOREX: Euro Down, Eyes On ECB Loan Repayment
NEW YORK -The euro fell broadly Monday as worries mounted about financial-system strains ahead of the expiry of a large-scale European Central Bank lending facility later this week. Banks have to repay over EUR440 billion in one-year funds to the ECB on Thursday and some investors fear a liquidity shortfall. The euro fell to a fresh all-time low against the Swiss franc and its worst level since November 2008 versus the U.K. pound. Uncertainty about how much of the 12-month loans banks will be able to roll over into other ECB lending facilities soured sentiment toward the euro, said Jessica Hoversen, fixed income and foreign exchange analyst at MF Global in Chicago. Some banks in the euro zone have been extremely reliant on ECB loans in recent months as they face ballooning costs to raise funds in the market. However, many analysts expect that a big chunk of the loans due July 1 will be rolled into three-month loans or one-time shorter-dated offers, thereby helping the system avoid any significant problems. Sterling strengthened against the euro as markets recognized that the U.K. is in better fiscal shape than Europe following the tough U.K. budget released last week, analysts said. Comments from the Bank of England's Andrew Sentance, expressing his belief that British interest rates should be increased, also helped bolster the pound. The euro dropped to a 19-month low, at 0.8125 against the pound, according to EBS via CQG, while the pound hit $1.5121, its peak since May 6. 'Investors are fairly cautious, and are trying to continue trends that they're familiar with, such as the euro pushing lower,' said Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at BNP Paribas in New York. To see the euro's performance against the U.K. pound, please see: http://dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/4191 An unwillingness to place bold bets ahead of U.S. monthly employment data on Friday, as well as adjustments to positions that precede every quarterly close, helped keep trading tentative for the dollar and yen, said analysts. Both currencies stuck to narrow ranges Monday. Late afternoon, the euro was at $1.2276, from $1.2388 late Friday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y89.41, from Y89.26, while the euro was at Y109.78 from Y110.56. The U.K. pound was at $1.5105 from $1.5062. The dollar was at CHF1.0872 from CHF1.0927. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 85.701 from late Friday's 85.270. The outcome of the Group of 20 nations' summit in Toronto had given investors little new information upon which to base short-term trades. Currency movements weren't dramatically affected by a pledge over the weekend by G-20 leaders to commit jointly to at least halving fiscal deficits by 2013, and to stabilizing ratios of debt to gross domestic product by 2016. The Swiss franc continued its record-breaking march higher Monday as the euro sank as far as CHF1.3329, before recovering slightly to CHF1.3348. It had traded at CHF1.3507 late Friday. The Swiss currency has soared lately, particularly since late June, when the Swiss National Bank terminated its euro-buying program to limit the franc's appreciation. Unless the central bank sees fresh signs that the franc's ascent is causing deflation by making imports cheaper, it appears set to stand back and leave the currency to the whim of market forces. With the ICE Dollar Index strengthening, Deutsche Bank's PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bearish exchange-traded fund was down 0.60% from late Friday, while its PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish was up 0.48%. The two exchange-traded funds are based on Deutsche Bank currency futures indexes, whose composition mirrors that of the ICE's Dollar Index.