My Forecasts

13:15GMT Made some small LONGs for EURs.. made some profit on earlier SHORTs ;D very nice day...
12:00GMT News on Banks Stress - reuters predict
*** COUNTRIES IN MARKET FOCUS, ALPHABETICALLY ***

FRANCE - PASS EXPECTED

BANKS PARTICIPATING: BNP Paribas; Societe Generale; Credit Agricole; BPCE, parent of Natixis.

OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Bank of France head Christian Noyer said there was "no reason" to believe French banks would fail Europe-wide stress tests as they were regularly tested by the regulator. (Europlace business forum, July 6).

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Most expect all banks to pass. Some brokers using a harsher stress test than CEBS have cast doubt on Credit Agricole's capital strength.

GERMANY - 1 FAIL, 13 PASSES EXPECTED

BANKS PARTICIPATING: Deutsche Bank; Commerzbank; Hypo Real Estate; Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg; Bayerische Landesbank; DZ Bank; Norddeutsche Landesbank; Deutsche Postbank; WestLB; HSH Nordbank; Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen; Landesbank Berlin; Dekabank Deutsche Girozentrale; WGZ Bank

COMMENTS: With the exception of nationalised Hypo Real Estate no German bank in the test is expected to fall below the minimum capital threshold required to pass the exercise, several sources close to the banks told Reuters. Head of German banks association said that "all in all" he expected German banks to perform well.

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Apart from Hypo Real Estate, some analysts using different stress test assumptions have said Commerzbank would need more capital in their scenario.

GREECE - PASS EXPECTED

BANKS PARTICIPATING: National Bank of Greece; EFG Eurobank; Alpha Bank; Piraeus Bank; Agricultural Bank of Greece; TT Hellenic Postbank

OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Central bank chief George Provopoulos has said he expects Greek lenders to "smoothly pass" the tests. Bank sources told Reuters on Thursday that European bank regulators had toughened the test criteria.

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Citi analysts say NBG would need capital in their own stress test scenario. Credit Suisse sees all but two Greek banks - ATEbank and Piraeus - out of the recapitalization zone. ATEbank's management said in May that it was considering boosting its capital.

IRELAND - 1 PASS, 1 CONDITIONAL PASS EXPECTED

BANKS PARTICIPATING: Bank of Ireland; Allied Irish Banks

OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and central bank Governor Patrick Honohan both said that the two Irish banks had already passed domestic stress tests that were tougher than the EU test.

ITALY - PASS EXPECTED

BANKS PARTICIPATING: Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, UBI Banca, Banco Popolare

OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi said last week he was confident stress tests would show individual banks' capital is strong enough and that financial bases are sound.

PORTUGAL - 1-2 FAILS POSSIBLE

BANKS PARTICIPATING: Caixa Geral de Depositos, Millennium bcp, Banco Espirito Santo, Banco BPI.

OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Treasury Secretary Carlos Pina said stress tests showed a solid, well-managed banking system without capital problems and tests results would reinforce investor confidence in Portugal.

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Millennium bcp and Banco BPI have failed stress tests by brokers including JPMorgan, Macquarie and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods using different assumptions than CEBS.

SPAIN - SOME CAJAS EXPECTED TO FAIL

BANKS PARTICIPATING: Banco Santander; BBVA; Banco Popular Espanol; Banco de Sabadell; Bankinter; Banco Pastor; Banca March; Banco Guipuzcoano; all unlisted savings banks or "cajas."

OFFICIAL COMMENTS: The director general of the Spanish Confederation of Savings Banks (CECA) has said he did not expect nasty surprises, but did not rule out some lenders having to raise capital. Newspaper El Pais reported on Friday that several Spanish banks would be found to need new capital under the test scenarios, citing unnamed financial sources.

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Analysts expect no problems at the big listed banks. They expect capital shortfalls at some cajas to be covered by the Bank of Spain's restructuring fund in a process that started before the stress tests were announced.

09:25GMT If you're wondering why I keep SHORTing EURs - Its b'cus of EU banks stress test. I expect some big holes in PIIGS especially Ireland, iceland (NonEU) and for that matter Italy too ;D you can call me sadist but I make my bread & butter from these expectations.
08:20GMT 100 pips target was small ;D Now I'm making SHORTs in EURs..target 50 pips
06:00GMT Entered Longs in JPYs and now waiting; From 8AM GMT data release will start.
05:00GMT Take Longs in almost all our pairs except GBPUSD on next RSI down in 1 or 5 min TF. I'm expecting 50-100 pips UP.
02:30GMT Good Morning Friends, EURUSD, JPYs pointing DOWN. It will be small DOWN and I expect it to continue after a small hill climb. GBPUSD is neutral - mixed signal.