My Forecast

15:55GMT Day's assessment - NFP data showed U.S. job losses were less than expected in August, the second major report this week to ease fears the economy would slip back into recession. However, data on U.S. services companies showed the sector grew at a rate that was below expectations in August, even as it rose for an eighth straight month, leading investors to pare riskier bets.The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc weakened while higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar, gained as the employment report fanned expectations the U.S. labour market may not be as weak as many had feared.
My Tweets SHORTs on few JPYs trades made some 60-80 pips now.

09:35GMT Now some funnier FX scenario; Reuters reports:
The Chinese government's currency reserves, the world's largest such stockpile at $2.45 trillion (1.59 trillion pounds), are held roughly in line with what was described as the global average: 65 percent in dollars, 26 percent in euros, 5 percent in pounds and 3 percent in yen.Chinese net buying of Japanese debt has surpassed 1.7 trillion yen this year, far surpassing its record of 255.7 billion yen in 2005
China has also raised holdings of South Korean bonds by 2.48 trillion won ($2.11 billion) in the first seven months of this year from 1.87 trillion won at the end of last year. However, Chinese investors only started buying South Korean bonds in the middle of 2009.At the same time, China has slightly cut back its vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries, from $894.8 billion at the start of the year to $843.7 billion in June, according to the most recent data. China remains the biggest single holder of U.S. government debt.

Does China needs any other weapon - pump back USD back in market Japan will declare bankrupt; some chinese industry will do the same and Obama will be the happiest person in universe with exports going back UP ;D funny way of world governance!!!

08:40GMT Market winners interesting NFP analysis
Here are 7 scenarios for the Non-Farm Payrolls and their effect on the dollar:

1. NFP at -100K, private sector +40K – exactly as expected. Choppy trading but no significant move.
2. NFP at -70K or better, private sector at +70K or better – better than expected. Dollar gains sharply.
3. NFP at -70K or better, private sector at +40K – better than expected – dollar gains.
4. NFP at -70K or better, private sector unchanged – surprising but mixed – dollar stalls.
5. NFP at -150K, private sector at +40K – disappointing but not too bad – dollar retreats.
6. NFP at -150K, private sector unchanged – disappointing – dollar falls.
7. NFP at -150K or worse, private sector at -40K or worse, a significant loss of jobs in the private sector. This is the worst case scenario that will raise the talk of a double dip recession. In this case the dollar will gain on risk aversion.

07:40GMT News on JPY:
The Japanese yen is set to gradually weaken against the U.S. dollar over the year, although at a markedly slower pace than was forecast last month even as the Bank of Japan attempts to tame its stubborn rise.Consensus forecasts for the yen in the latest Reuters poll of more than 60 strategists taken this week were scaled back considerably from a similar survey a month ago.The dollar is expected to end September at 85.0 yen, before inching to 86.0 yen in three months, 89.5 in six and 95.0 in 12 months."Price action over the past few days has demonstrated that BoJ policy has become ineffective in slowing yen appreciation," said Kenneth Broux at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets."In the context of a weakening U.S. economy and the clouded outlook for risk assets, I suspect the yen will stay supported in the short term."Only three of 63 strategists in the latest poll see the dollar at below 80 yen over the period forecasted."People have that view that 85 (yen) was going to be some kind of line in the sand that would bring forward the Ministry of Finance to order the Bank of Japan in," said Ray Attrill at 4Cast."But we were never really thinking as high as that and the Japanese were still fundamentally quite reluctant to go back down the route of intervention." Calculated cross rates saw the EUR/JPY at 107.6 in one month, 108.0 in three months, 109.3 in six and 114.5 in 12 months.

06:45GMT On Monday US market will remain close..Today profit booking by many players are expected.
03:10GMT Good Morning Friends, Late start today - did some extra hours yesterday to see any momentum towards end of US session. NFP D'Day; usually excited about riding the waves on NFP but today I plan to work based on the walls. All our pairs are looking DOWN but I'm not sure whether this is the game plan. The patterns shows UP as the recovery hit 23-38% of X-A points i.e we are at B point now. C point will be another slide for taking entries. D point will be higher than this week's high. Now you know the normal plan; but factor in players your B point is not yet ready - we are at 38% it will hit 50-61% and then drop to -127% for stophunts. This is the exact reason usually I ride waves but since there was no major entries yesterday; my plan is based on players one.