Friday, 17 September 2010

My Forecast

12:30GMT
News on EURUSD:
Intervention by the Bank of Japan to push up the dollar from a 15-year low against the yen and expectations of further easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve have pushed the single currency to a one-month high against the dollar and a five-week high versus the yen, but these gains could be fleeting.The euro zone periphery's deeply ingrained debt problems, the social impact of austerity measures and a possible rebound in the dollar could see the euro re-test and break through four-year lows above $1.18 by mid-2011."There's potential for social unrest in a number of euro zone countries, even Germany," said Beat Siegenthaler, fx strategist at UBS, who thought the $1.31 area was likely to be the top end of the euro's current range."Structural issues are still brewing and we still think that sovereign risks will drive the euro lower to our $1.15 target in the medium-term."
News on USDJPY:
Japan's solo foray into currency markets on Wednesday, its first in six years, sparked fears other nations might follow suit to prop up sagging exports and that such competitive devaluations could prove lethal to the slackening global economic recovery.Japan will try to dispel international criticism of its yen-selling intervention by highlighting the damaging impact of the currency's climb on an economy mired in deflation, the finance minister said on Friday.Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who has retained his post in a cabinet reshuffle, told a news conference that even though he was aware of such concerns Tokyo was ready to act again if confronted with rapid currency moves.Noda said the yen's rapid rise -- which he said was deviating from the economy's fundamentals -- was the reason Tokyo intervened in currency markets, and that he had no specific currency levels in mind when deciding whether to intervene."I'm aware that there are various opinions. But Japan's stance is that a prolonged yen rise is undesirable as the economy remains in a severe situation with ongoing deflation. It is important to consistently explain our stance to the international community," Noda told reporters after a cabinet meeting.
03:40GMT The 1 min chart shows that most of our pairs are completing rangebound consolidation. It has nearly hit the roof of consolidation or counter trend.We are getting ready for breakout. I'll use RSIs to find with way it will breakout. I think JPYs will try down for pre-data stage..
01:00GMT Good Morning Friends, The drop in JPYs will be bigger than GBPUSD & EURUSD. I think "next session" tweet alert first entry i.e lotsX1 will be the best shot to enter for LONGs.

3 comments:

  1. Hi J, how do you see gu acting for rest of the day? I see rsi is high in all timeframe, plus it is in "sell" areas of your walls. Thanks

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  2. When you said that your not shorting until it is at 100, did you mean the price or RSI?
    Concerning crosses, I can see the larger rise but longs after this much of a rise? There needs to be a large retrace no??

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  3. I think Players will plan a guessing game for GU. I think they will try wild spikes and most probably end week with UP.
    Rich, I meant I'll not bet major Lots on JPY crosses until USDJPY crosses prices hit 100. May still try small lots but not for big profits. BOJ target is to hit 100 sooner to revive the economy..

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