Friday, 24 September 2010

My Forecast

14:15GMT GBPUSD Pattern

10:15GMT EURUSD near 1.3470 is a good SHORT for 50-80 pips.
08:30GMT A useful external Analysis USDJPY:
The daily chart of the USD/JPY shows the after-effects of last week’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention. The move higher through Falling Wedge resistance was caused by the BOJ selling Yen last Tuesday morning in an effort to weaken the currency. (The strong Yen negatively impacts exports on which the Japanese economy relies heavily, and a weaker Yen would make these products more competitive in the global marketplace. Companies such as Sony and Toyota would prefer the weaker Yen because it would also boost profits.) However, since the intervention was unilateral—versus being coordinated with Europe, the U.K., and the U.S.—the move has thus far done little more than put a short squeeze on sellers, who have since used the ceiling at 86.00 to confirm that the rally has subsided and that prices have re-entered the range of this downtrending pattern.

Keep in mind: there is likely enough concern that the BOJ is not done intervening to keep the short sellers hesitant. Overall, the USD/JPY sentiment is still negative, as confirmed by the six-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading (the lowest possible reading for a trending market). The reversal of the Falling Wedge pattern may have pierced downtrend line resistance, but it was never able to establish support above the noteworthy highs at 85.90 and 86.37.
05:25GMT News Update :BoJ intervention campaign goes on, with Yen crosses having a meteoric rise once again, only over a week after the first capital injection took place. Investors were caught off guard, not expecting such an early response from Japanese authorities. No details were disclosed on the amounts of Yen sold, and the MoF is still reluctant to confirm the intervention."USD/JPY jumped from 84.50 area to 85.40 in a blink with price now consolidating above 85.10 price zone. Pair has completed this way, the double floor seen during past Thursday at 84.25. As long as above 85.10, bias por the pair remains bullish with resistances for the upcoming hours at 85.40/50 and weekly high around 85.93. Supports, under 85.10, are located at 84.70 nd 87.40" commented Valeria Bednarik. She added: "Reaction, has been of course more limited than past week one. Market has not been caugth by surprise, so rather than stronger accelerations a continuations, we could expect some consolidation around current levels in yen crosses; furter reactions yet to come, could be seen with European opening".
01:00GMT Good Morning Friends, At this moment GBPs showing UP but I think they will slide for EU session. EURs showing UP and I think they will climb for a stronger drop towards end or early next week. Levels of drop are limited as we are in UP trend month. Next week is the last and month-end cycle may start today. Data for Today - EURs IFO @8GMT, US Durable Goods & New home sales towards end of the day.

3 comments:

  1. Hi J, How do you see gbpusd in next few days? You know Dr S predicts a rise, I just feel that another extended stophunt might be due. Lots have taken longs I think. Whats your view? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think Stophunt is limited .. I placed BUYLIMITS below 1.5625..expecting it to hit that level sooner..

    ReplyDelete

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