Monday, 4 October 2010

Market Rumours

2010/10/04 17:37=DJ DATA SNAP: Euro-Zone Producer Prices Up Slightly In August

2010/10/04 17:22*DJ ICBC (Asia) Appoints Zong Jianxin As Executive Director

2010/10/04 17:05DJ IW Institute Forecasts Germany 2010 GDP Up 3.25%, Up 2% In 2011
BERLIN -Germany's economy has emerged surprisingly quickly from last year's slump and the initial export-driven recovery is gradually being replaced by domestic demand as the country's growth engine, the IW economic research institute said Monday. The business-funded IW raised its forecasts for real domestic product growth to 3.25% in 2010 and 2.0% in 2011. Back in May, it had predicted 1.75% growth for 2010 and 1.5% growth for 2011. 'The recovery has initially been driven by exports. At the same time, however, German domestic demand is gaining again significance,' IW said in a statement. The Cologne-based think-tank said exports are set to grow by 16.75% in 2010 and by 8% in 2011, following the 14.3% contraction in 2009. Private consumption is seen flat this year and growing by 1% in 2011, with domestic demand rising 2.25% in 2010 and 1.25% in 2011. 'Domestic demand is becoming the driving growth force,' IW Director Michael Huether said in a prepared statement. Unemployment is seen falling to 7.5% this year, from last year's 8.2%, before falling to 7% in 2011. Surprisingly strong economic growth is helping Germany's public finances to perform better than previously thought, with IW forecasting the budget deficit to reach 4.0% of gross domestic product this year, after last year's 3.0% deficit, and narrowing to 3.0% in 2011. The German government is due to present its new growth forecast Oct. 21. Officials have already said growth in 2010 will come in at close to 3% or slightly above 3%. Website. www.iwkoeln.de
2010/10/04 17:00*DJ Euro-Zone Aug PPI Was Seen +0.1% On Month; +3.6% On Year

2010/10/04 17:00*DJ Euro-Zone Aug Ex-Energy PPI +0.2% On Mo; +2.2% On Yr

2010/10/04 17:00*DJ Euro-Zone Aug Producer Prices +0.1% On Mo; +3.6% On Yr

2010/10/04 16:31DJ UK Osborne: UK Economy Has Moved Out Of Financial Danger Zone
LONDON -The U.K. economy has moved out of the financial danger zone as a result of the budget cuts announced June 22, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said Monday. In an interview with the BBC ahead of his speech to the ruling Conservative Party's annual conference, Osborne said Spain's loss of its AAA credit rating last week and the likelihood that Ireland will have to introduce further austerity measures demonstrates how necessary it was for the U.K. to have acted quickly to cut its budget deficit. Osborne said the June 22 emergency budget had ensured that the U.K. retained its AAA rating, and that interest rates on government debt remained low. 'We have moved Britain out of the financial danger zone and given the country a plan that the rest of the world has confidence in,' Osborne said. Earlier, Osborne announced that from 2013, parents paying the 40% rate of income tax would no longer receive Child Benefit. That payment is one of a range of U.K. benefits that are universal, and available to everyone regardless of how much money they earn. Osborne said his decision to exclude higher earners from receiving the payment was not a precedent for a wholesale reform of universal benefits. 'This is a one off measure,' he said.
2010/10/04 16:15DJ JGBs Rise On BOJ Easing View; 5-Year Yield At 7-Year Low
TOKYO -The five-year Japanese government bond yield fell to a more than seven-year low Monday as market participants bought bonds on expectations of additional monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, but overall trading was relatively slow at the start of what will be an eventful week. Investors will be focusing on the outcome of the BOJ's two-day policy board meeting ending Tuesday as well as the result of U.S. non-farm payroll data Friday, with monetary easing competition between Japan and the U.S. being a major market theme. 'The 10-year yield fell as low as 0.920% last week as the market priced in the possibility of the BOJ expanding liquidity-provision measures tomorrow,' said a trader at a Japanese bank. 'The 10-year yield is therefore unlikely to break below the 0.9% threshold this week unless U.S. non-farm payroll data show a sharp deterioration,' or unless the BOJ takes radical measures, such as increasing the amount of JGBs it purchases, the trader added. The benchmark 10-year cash JGB yield had dropped 2.0 basis points to 0.935% as of 0600 GMT. The BOJ is widely expected to announce more easing Tuesday. Nine out of 10 economists surveyed by expect the central bank to expand liquidity-provision measures--possibly by increasing its supply of six-month loans or buying more short-term government bills. The bank is expected to keep its overnight call loan rate at 0.1%, where it has been since December 2008. Reflecting such views, the five-year JGB yield fell to 0.240%--its lowest since June 2003. Lead December JGB futures finished the day up 0.13 at 143.45 after hitting an intraday high of 143.49--its highest since June 2003. However, some analysts tip JGB yields to rise should the BOJ announce any further easing measures. If the board only expands its supply of short-term funds--as is widely expected--JGB yields may rise due to market disappointment, as many participants believe such measures lack easing effects, said Kazuhiko Sano, chief JGB strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities. Sano added that even if the BOJ goes beyond the consensus and decides to purchase more JGBs from financial institutions, that is also expected to push up yields by fueling concern over the nation's fiscal health. BOJ officials have long opposed the idea of increasing JGB purchases on the view it would fan market concern that the central bank is handing the government a blank check to spend wantonly, undermining long-term JGB credibility.
2010/10/04 16:10=DJ MONEY TALKS: Euro's Gain Contains Seeds Of Its Next Crisis

2010/10/04 16:10*DJ Malaysia Central Bank Suspected of Buying Dollar At MYR3.0850 - Dealers

2010/10/04 15:56DJ Swiss Govt Experts Detail New Capital Rules For Big Banks
ZURICH -A Swiss government expert group Monday proposed measures aimed at protecting Switzerland's economy from a potential failure of UBS or Credit Suisse Group , which would require the two major banks to stow more and better-quality capital. The measures add an additional, tougher "Swiss finish" to the country's adoption of new international Basel III bank reforms, which were agreed last month and come into force in 2013.At the heart of the proposals, applying specically to UBS and Credit Suisse, will be intensified capital requirements backed up by new capital instruments, as well as organizational measures to ensure the maintenance of essential services in payment transactions, the deposit business and lending business in the event of a crisis, it said."They are compatible with the new international requirements of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board, and go further than these requirements," it said.
2010/10/04 15:34DJ Tokyo Shares Fall; Uncertainty Over BOJ Stance; Banks Fall -2-

2010/10/04 15:20*DJ UK Osborne: UK Economy Has Moved Out Of Danger Zone

2010/10/04 15:05DJ Forex Options: Dollar/Yen Options Up Ahead Of BOJ Meeting
TOKYO -Dollar/yen options edged up in Tokyo Monday as investors sought hedges against falls in the U.S. unit amid lingering speculation that the Federal Reserve may increase Treasury buying, with the Bank of Japan seen unlikely to implement such dramatic bond-buying steps.Benchmark volatilities implied by one-month at-the-money options rose to 10.85%/11.55% in Tokyo from 10.50%/11.20% Friday in New York. Volatilities could continue trending up this week if Japan's central bank does not meet or exceed market expectations for it to expand liquidity-provision measures at the conclusion of a regular two-day policy board meeting Tuesday, dealers said. Any hesitancy on the BOJ's part to ease policy further would contrast with expectations for the Fed to possibly introduce more quantitative easing. That would weigh on dollar interest rates compared to those of the yen, possibly dragging the greenback below Y82.87, the 15-year low it hit on September 15 just before Tokyo launched its first yen-selling intervention in more than six years, dealers said. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said Friday that the central bank is almost certain to take further easing measures ahead as current economic conditions are 'wholly unsatisfactory.'
2010/10/04 15:05DJ Tokyo Shares Fall; Uncertainty Over BOJ Stance; Banks Fall

2010/10/04 15:02*DJ FTSE 100 Up 0.1% After The Open

2010/10/04 15:02*DJ Stoxx 600 Index Up 0.1% After The Open

2010/10/04 14:49*DJ BOK May Have Bought Around $500M-$1B To Curb Won's Rise -Trader

2010/10/04 14:48*DJ BOK Likely Intervened Mostly Near KRW1,123 In Afternoon -Traders

2010/10/04 14:34*DJ Euro Rises Above CHF1.3464 On EBS; Highest Since Aug 13

2010/10/04 14:25=DJ WORLD FOREX: Yen Falls On View BOJ To Ease Policy This Week -3-

2010/10/04 14:21=DJ FED WATCH:Fed Officials Take Opposing Sides Of Stimulus Debate

2010/10/04 14:03*DJ Nikkei Stock Average Closes Down 0.3% At 9381.06

2010/10/04 13:46=DJ WORLD FOREX: Yen Falls On View BOJ To Ease Policy This Week -2-

2010/10/04 13:44DJ Kuwait Investment Authority To Buy About US$1 Bln Of AIA Shares In IPO - Source
HONG KONG -AIA Group Ltd., the pan-Asian life unit of American International Group Inc. , has secured around US$1 billion from the Kuwait Investment Authority for its US$10 billion-US$15 billion IPO, a person familiar with the deal said Monday.The Gulf country's sovereign-wealth fund is one of the cornerstone investors in AIA, which AIG is listing to help repay U.S. taxpayers after a huge government bailout in 2008.AIA is slated to list in Hong Kong on Oct. 29, with the roadshow set to begin Tuesday, and pricing on Oct. 21, according to a term sheet seen by . It began pre-marketing the deal, in which no new shares will be issued, on Sept. 27.
2010/10/04 13:40=DJ WORLD FOREX: Yen Falls On View BOJ To Ease Policy This Week

2010/10/04 12:44*DJ BOK Suspected Of Intervening In FX Market To Slow Won's Rise - Traders

2010/10/04 12:34*DJ Credit Suisse Cut To Equalweight From Overweight By Morgan Stanley

2010/10/04 12:30DJ Japan DPJ Genba: Aim To Compile Supplementary Budget Plan Wednesday -Kyodo
TOKYO -The ruling Democratic Party of Japan aims to compile its proposals for a supplementary budget on Wednesday, with the government's proposals set to be drawn up within this week, Kyodo News cited DPJ Policy Research Committee Chairman Koichi Genba as saying Monday. The Japanese government aims to draw up an extra budget worth nearly Y5 trillion for the rest of the fiscal year through March 2011, Kyodo reported Friday, as it looks to fund an additional stimulus package aimed at fighting the impact of the recent sharp rise of the yen and boosting Japan's economic recovery.Prime Minister Naoto Kan is hoping to get the draft budget approved by the Diet during an extraordinary session that runs until Dec. 3. -By Tokyo Bureau, ; 813-6269-2770;
2010/10/04 11:44*DJ Kuwait Investment Authority To Buy About US$1 Bln Of AIA Shares In IPO - Source

2010/10/04 11:16=DJ IMF Urges Broader Financial System Restructuring Beyond Basel

2010/10/04 11:01DJ Rusal Signs US$4.58 Bln Loan Facility To Refinance Debt
HONG KONG -Russian aluminum giant United Co. Rusal PLC (0486.HK) said Monday it signed a US$4.58 billion credit facility with Russian lender Sberbank to refinance debt incurred from the acquisition of a 25% stake in miner OAO Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.RS).The new facility was drawn down on Sept. 30 to repay the debt and capitalized interest owed by Rusal to Vnesheconombank, another Russian lender, Rusal said in a statement.The new loan, due Dec. 7, 2013, has an option to be renewed for a further 18 months, with an interest rate of 5% over the London interbank offered rate, it said.Vnesheconombank's loan to Rusal was agreed in November 2008 and was used to repay another loan obtained in April of that year from a syndicate of foreign banks.
2010/10/04 10:50DJ Ireland Needs EUR4.5 Bln Of Cuts In Budget: Sources - Report
Ireland's government must find up to ?EUR4.5 billion ($6.2 billion) in savings in December's budget, the Sunday Tribune reported on its website, citing unidentified sources. Total 'adjustments' in excess of EUR10 billion over the next four years will also have to be found in order to curtail the country's deficit, the sources said, according to the report. The sources said this level of cutbacks would be needed to reassure markets and the EU that Ireland is serious about getting its budget deficit down to manageable levels by 2014, the report said. Full story: http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2010/oct/03/government-must-find-45bn-of-cuts-in-decembers-bud/
2010/10/04 10:20*DJ Hang Seng Index Rises 1.5% To 22,682.38; Highest In 2010

2010/10/04 09:32DJ Japan, Mongolia To Jointly Develop Rare Earth
TOKYO -Japan will cooperate in promoting projects to develop rare-earth minerals in Mongolia as it seeks to diversify sources of materials needed for high-tech products.Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Mongolian Prime Minister Sukhbaatar Batbold agreed on such cooperation during a meeting in Tokyo on Saturday evening, Japan's foreign ministry said in a release. Japan is heavily dependent on imports from China, which had curbed exports to Japan amid a diplomatic spat.'Development of mine resources in resource-rich Mongolia will benefit both countries. Our country's research team will launch exploration of rare metals this month,' Kan said.The move comes as Japan looks to broaden sources of rare-earth minerals after some Japanese companies late last month reported delays in receiving shipments from China due to more stringent customs checks by Chinese authorities. China has denied any interference. The most affected imports were rare-earth minerals, which are critical in making some high-tech products such as batteries for mobile phones and electric cars.The reported delays in imports came as a row between China and Japan intensified recently, triggered by collisions between Japanese coast guard ships and a Chinese fishing trawler. The incident was followed by the cancellation of some cultural-exchange programs and meetings between government officials of the two countries. Japan's Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Banri Kaieda said in a recent interview that Japan should diversify sources by accelerating the development of alternative materials outside China. Japan depends on China for 96% of its rare-earth minerals, while China controls more than 90% of the world's output.Japan will help Mongolia look for rare-earth minerals and other metals with its technologies under the agreement.
2010/10/04 09:26*DJ Euro Rises Above Y115.00 On EBS; Highest Since May 18

2010/10/04 09:26*DJ Yen Falls Against Dollar, Euro


2010/10/04 09:21DJ US Alerts Citizens Of 'Potential' For Terror Attacks In Europe
WASHINGTON --The U.S. State Department on Sunday issued a travel alert to Americans in Europe, warning of "the potential for terrorist attacks" and urging U.S. citizens to take precautions in public places."The State Department alerts U.S. citizens to the potential for terrorist attacks in Europe," the department said in its travel warning that had been expected since U.S. officials said Saturday that such an alert was forthcoming."Current information suggests that Al-Qaeda and affiliated organizations continue to plan terrorist attacks," it added."U.S. citizens should take every precaution to be aware of their surroundings and to adopt appropriate safety measures to protect themselves when traveling."
2010/10/04 09:04*DJ Rusal Signs US$4.58 Bln Loan Facility To Refinance Debt

2010/10/04 08:52=DJ FOREX WEEK AHEAD: Central Bank Actions Color Currency Outlook

2010/10/04 08:34*DJ 5-Year JGB Yield Falls To 0.240%; Lowest Since June 2003

2010/10/04 08:33DJ Goldman Sachs In Talks To Buy GBP3B RBS Loan Portfolio - Report
LONDON -Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is in talks to buy a GBP3 billion property loans portfolio from Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC , the Sunday Times reports without citing sources.Bids for the portfolio, considered non-core by 83%-government owned RBS, could also come from U.S.-based Lone Star and Blackstone Group L.P. , according to the newspaper.First-round offers are expected to be submitted in the next two weeks, it added.An RBS spokesman declined to comment on the report. Goldman Sachs wasn't immediately available.Newspaper Web site: http://www.timesonline.co.uk
2010/10/04 08:26*DJ Dollar At KRW1,123.4, Lowest Since KRW1,111.8 On May 4

2010/10/04 08:07*DJ Lead December JGB Futures Hit Highest Level Since June 2003

2010/10/04 08:07*DJ Nikkei Stock Average Turns Negative

2010/10/04 08:06*DJ Dollar Breaches KRW1,130 Support, Now At KRW1,126.8 Vs KRW1,130.4 Fri

2010/10/04 08:06*DJ Lead December JGB Futures Open Up At 143.42 Vs 143.32 Friday

2010/10/04 08:02*DJ Nikkei Stock Average Opens Up 0.1% At 9410.92

2010/10/04 07:46*DJ Lead Nikkei Futures Open Up 10 Points At 9395 On SGX

2010/10/04 06:50*DJ US Dollar Quoted At S$1.3108 Friday Trade; Now At S$1.3117

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