Monday, 25 October 2010

Market Rumours

2010/10/25 17:44=DJ DATA SNAP: Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders Bounce Back In August

2010/10/25 17:34=DJ UPDATE: Sohu.com 3rd-Quarter Net Up 9.6%; Gives Upbeat Outlook
(Adds Sohu outlook, closing of Sogou investment deal, Changyou results.) By Owen Fletcher and Aaron Back Of BEIJING -Chinese Internet portal Sohu.com Inc. said Monday its third-quarter net profit rose 9.6% from a year earlier because of strong advertising and online gaming revenue, defying analyst expectations for net profit to fall as the company also gave an upbeat fourth-quarter outlook. Sohu said in a statement its net profit for the three months ended Sept. 30 rose to $41.0 million from $37.4 million a year earlier. The result was well above the average $34.8 million forecast of nine analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. Sohu said it expects fourth-quarter revenue of $163 million to $168 million, up from $135.8 million a year earlier and above the average $162.6 million forecast of 11 analysts. Sohu projected net profit excluding share-based compensation in the three months ending Dec. 31 to be between $43 million and $45 million, up from $39.3 million a year earlier. The company's third-quarter earnings per share rose to $1.01 a share from 88 cents a year earlier, compared with the average 90 cents forecast of 11 analysts. Revenue rose 20% to $164.1 million from $136.6 million. Brand advertising revenue rose 22% to $59.1 million. Sohu's online gaming unit, Changyou.com Ltd. , said Monday its third-quarter net income rose 20% to $45.3 million from $37.8 million a year earlier. The company was expected to report net income of $43.3 million, according to a Thomson Reuters poll of nine analysts. Changyou's third-quarter revenue was $85.6 million, up 25% from $68.7 million a year earlier. Sohu said operating expenses excluding share-based compensation rose 7% from a year earlier to $50.1 million. Sohu also said it closed on Friday the sale of new preferred shares in its online search unit, Sogou Inc., to investors including a unit of Alibaba Group. Alibaba Investment Ltd. invested $15 million to buy shares worth 10% of Sogou's outstanding share capital on a fully diluted basis; a vehicle of Yunfeng Fund LP, a venture capital fund co-founded by Alibaba Group Chairman Jack Ma, invested $9 million for 6% of the outstanding share capital; and a fund invested in by Sohu Chief Executive Charles Zhang invested $24 million for 16% of Sogou's outstanding share capital, Sohu said.
2010/10/25 17:29=DJ Forex Focus: UK Sitting Pretty As Sterling Looks Shaky

2010/10/25 17:13*DJ ECB Tumpel-Gugerell: Effective Fiscal Consolidation Would Boost Confidence

2010/10/25 17:11*DJ ECB Tumpel-Gugerell: Sees Positive Momentum In Euro-Zone Economy

2010/10/25 17:10*DJ 3-Month Euribor Rises To 1.032% Vs 1.029% Friday

2010/10/25 17:00*DJ Euro-Zone Indus Orders Were Forecast +3.0% MM; +22.0% YY

2010/10/25 17:00*DJ Euro-Zone Jul Orders Revised To -1.8% MM; +11.7% YY

2010/10/25 17:00*DJ Euro-Zone Aug Indus Orders +5.3% MM; +24.4% YY

2010/10/25 16:18DJ Tokyo Shares End Lower As Yen Rises After G-20; KDDI Jumps -2-

2010/10/25 16:06=DJ FOCUS: Race For Key Post In Asia Regional FX Fund Intensifies

2010/10/25 16:05DJ UK Cable: Recovery Will Be Slow And Difficult Process
LONDON -U.K. Business Secretary Vince Cable responded to concerns of a double-dip slump in the country Monday, saying the recovery will be difficult but the economy will continue growing. 'The world economy, Britain in particular, has been through a dramatic period... the near collapse of the financial system has done a lot of damage and recovery is going to be a slow and difficult process,' he said on Sky News television. Official data due at 0830 GMT Tuesday is expected to show U.K. quarterly economic growth slowed sharply to 0.4% in the third quarter from 1.2% in the second, according to a survey of economists last week. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, whose government spent its first months in power focused on austerity plans, will seek to shift the agenda to growth and job creation in a speech at the Confederation of British Industry later Monday, including plans to inject competition into key corners of business. 'There is a positive agenda to create growth and employment,' Cable said.
2010/10/25 16:01DJ PRECIOUS METALS: Gold Up After G-20; Palladium At 9-Year High
SINGAPORE -Precious metals rallied in Asia Monday after a weekend meeting of Group of 20 industrial and developing nations ministers and central bank heads concluded without any actual policy commitments, pushing the U.S. dollar lower against major currencies and boosting commodity markets. After losing 3% last week, gold was in need of a fillip--and one came from currency markets, which responded to the G-20 meeting result by pushing the euro to $1.4062 at 0645 GMT after closing last week at $1.3954. Spot gold was at $1,346.30 a troy ounce, up $18.60, or 1.4%, while silver was at $23.67/oz, up 38 cents or 1.6%. The other precious metals also joined the party, with palladium breaking to its highest level since 2001 at $612/oz, up $23 or 3.9%. Traders said strong buying of industrial metals out of China was boosting demand for palladium, which is a key input in autocatalysts. 'The rally in copper is signalling confidence in China's growth outlook and palladium is a play on that,' said a Sydney based metals trader. Spot platinum was at $1,688.50/oz, up $15.50 or 0.9%. The next cue for precious metals will likely come from a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at 1230 GMT, with traders looking for some clarity on the timing and extent of any further monetary easing ahead of a Fed meeting next week.
2010/10/25 16:01=DJ FOREX WEEK AHEAD: G-20 Accord Likely To Bolster Market Trends--Not Reverse Them

2010/10/25 15:39DJ JGBs Fall A Tad; Slow Trading Before BOJ, Fed Policy Meetings
At 0600 GMT Change TFX June 3-Mos Euroyen Price: 99.695 .005 TSE Dec 10-Yr JGB Futures Price: 143.42 .04 10-Yr 0.8% JGB No. 311 Yield: 0.895% +0.010 TOKYO -Japanese government bonds ended slightly lower Monday, following weakness in U.S. Treasurys over the weekend; but trading was subdued as market participants awaited monetary policy-setting meetings in Japan and the U.S. The JGB market 'is likely to come to a standstill, with (the 10-year yield) around 0.9%,' said Naomi Hasegawa, senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, pointing to caution ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy board meeting Thursday and the Federal Open Market Committee on Nov. 2-3. The benchmark 10-year cash JGB yield was up 1.0 basis point at 0.895%, as of 0600 GMT. Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities forecasts the 10-year yield to stay in a range of 0.860% to 0.930% this week. Lead December JGB futures ended the day down 0.04 at 143.42. JGB price movement was limited Monday as market participants showed reluctance to build positions aggressively before learning the outcome of Japan's and the U.S.'s central bank meetings, and because a statement from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations, released over the weekend, failed to reverse the dollar's declining trend. 'The more (the Federal Reserve's) monetary easing measures are appraised , the weaker the dollar will likely be. And the yen's strength and ensuing stock falls will likely continue supporting JGBs,' said Kazuhiko Sano, chief strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities. At their meeting in South Korea, G-20 leaders agreed that large economies will refrain from weakening their own currencies for trade competitiveness, while 'advanced economies, including those with reserve currencies, will be vigilant against excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates.' But the yen remains on an uptrend against the U.S. currency. The dollar earlier Monday fell below Y80.84--its lowest since April 1995. Other Cash Bond Yields At 0600 GMT Change 2-Year 0.1% JGB No. 297 Yield: no trade 5-Year 0.3% JGB No. 92 Yield: 0.290% +0.005 20-Year 1.8% JGB No. 122 Yield: 1.745% .010 30-Year 2.0% JGB No. 33 Yield: 1.925% .015 ***********
2010/10/25 15:34DJ French Minister: Strike Action Costing EUR200M-EUR400M A Day
PARIS -The current nationwide strikes that are disrupting France's public transport system and oil supplies are costing EUR200 million to EUR400 million a day to the country's economy, Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Monday.Speaking in an interview with Europe 1 radio, Lagarde said that the unions-led actions, to protest against the government's planned pension reforms, could weigh on the French economic recovery.The government is also determined to tackle any excessive increases in gasoline price as a result of the industrial action, Lagarde said.
2010/10/25 15:04DJ Tokyo Shares End Lower As Yen Rises After G-20; KDDI Jumps

2010/10/25 15:03*DJ Stoxx 600 Index Up 0.4% After The Open

2010/10/25 15:02*DJ FTSE 100 Up 0.1% After The Open

2010/10/25 15:01DJ Forex Options: Dollar/Yen Options Steady As Spot Keeps Above Key Level
TOKYO -Dollar/yen options remained unchanged in Asia Monday as the U.S. dollar fell only slightly against the yen without breaking any key level.Benchmark volatilities implied by one-month at-the-money options stood at 11.00%/11.70%, unchanged from New York Friday.The dollar was trading around Y81.05 at 0326 GMT, without having breached the key level of Y81.00 in Asia morning trade. It was at Y81.41 late Friday in New York.Some Tokyo foreign exchange traders said the dollar may test Y80.84--the 15-year low marked Wednesday--later in the global day as attention shifts from the weekend's Group of 20 industrial and developing nations meeting, toward possible quantitative easing measures in the U.S. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to announce new measures at its regular meeting next week.More measures could make U.S. interest rates even more unattractive, encouraging dollar selling and pushing down the value of the currency.An options dealer at a major brokerage in Tokyo said market participants have already bought hedges against the greenback falling toward Y80.50.Implied volatilities are therefore unlikely to rise sharply provided the U.S. unit stays above that level.However, if the dollar breaks below Y80.00, the mid point of implied volatilities may rise to above 12.00%, the dealer added.
2010/10/25 14:49*DJ Spot Palladium Hits $610/Oz; Highest Since 2001

2010/10/25 14:42=DJ WORLD FOREX: Dollar Weakens Post G-20 But Focus Swings To Data -3-

2010/10/25 14:37=DJ WORLD FOREX: Dollar Weakens Post G-20 But Focus Swings To Data

2010/10/25 14:09=DJ WORLD FOREX: Dollar Weakens Post G-20 But Focus Swings To Data

2010/10/25 14:02*DJ Nikkei Stock Average Closes Down 0.3% At 9401.16

2010/10/25 13:52DJ EU Leaders Will Back Diluted Budget-Rules Reform - Report
European Union leaders next week will back a reform of EU budget rules that introduces new sanctions for rule-breakers but retains political discretion over the process, draft conclusions of the EU summit showed, Reuters reported Saturday. The reform, which the European Central Bank, the executive European Commission and several smaller euro-zone countries wanted to be more ambitious by making the sanctions almost automatic, was watered down by Germany and France, the report said. Changes to the rules, the Stability and Growth Pact, are in a report that the president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy, who was chairman of the task force of ministers preparing them, will present to EU leaders next week, Reuters reported. 'The European Council endorses the report of the task force on economic governance,' draft conclusions of the leaders summit said, according to the Reuters report. 'The European Council calls for a 'fast track' approach to be followed, in order for the Council and the European Parliament to reach agreement on the Commission's legislative proposals by summer 2011 and to ensure the effective implementation of the new surveillance arrangements as soon as possible,' the draft conclusions said, Reuters reported. Full story at http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69M1WD20101023
2010/10/25 13:49*DJ Dollar Falls Below Y80.84 On EBS; Lowest Since April 1995

2010/10/25 12:42*DJ Dollar Falls Below Y81.00 On EBS

2010/10/25 11:02DJ Malaysia PM: Want Minimum 6% Economic Growth In 2011
DJ Malaysia PM: Want Minimum 6% Economic Growth In 2011 KUALA LUMPUR -Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said Monday he wants to achieve a minimum economic growth of 6% in 2011. 'I told my ministers that I want a minimum growth of 6%,' Najib told participants at a global Islamic finance forum. The government has projected economic growth of 7% this year and 5%-6% in 2011.
2010/10/25 10:12DJ G-20 Vows To Avoid 'Competitive Devaluation,' Curb External Imbalances

2010/10/25 10:03DJ IMF Chief: G-20 Agrees To Historic Governance Reform
GYEONGJU, South Korea -The Group of 20 industrial and developing nations have agreed to a historic reform of the International Monetary Fund, the head of the fund said Saturday.'We will be a totally legitimate board,' once the restructuring is ratified and implemented, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told reporters as G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors ironed out last-minute details of their communique.'This makes for the biggest reform ever in the governance of the institution,' he said.Strauss-Kahn also said the G-20 had agreed to move forward on building the architecture of global financial safety nets by linking the IMF to a network of regional financial safety nets, such as the Chiang Mai Initiative, a $120 billion Asian emergency financing facility.The governance reform is designed to update an anachronistic structure based on a post-World War II balance of power, now allowing emerging countries proportional representation at the world's premier financial institution, giving countries such as Turkey a greater voice and vote.Crucially, European countries have agreed to give up two of their eight seats on the board. The deal surpasses the mandate given by the G-20 in shifting the percentage that developing countries are represented. Instead of appointed members, the board will be entirely elected.The IMF board will meet in coming weeks to ratify the decision, and it will likely take around a year for the Europeans to decide which of their smaller countries will give up their seats.The U.S, Japan, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Brazil, Russia, India and China will maintain their seats as the biggest shareholders.Separately, asked how the G-20 will determine what's considered an 'excessive' current account imbalance--a term outlined in the draft G-20 communique and designed to resolve global imbalances and currency tensions--Strauss-Kahn said the IMF's spill-over reports would act as the G-20's alarm mechanism.He also said that the fund's mandate should be expanded to include surveillance of capital markets. By Ian Talley, , 202-631-5794; ian.talley@dowjones.com
2010/10/25 10:02DJ G-20 Vows To Avoid 'Competitive Devaluation,' Curb External Imbalances

2010/10/25 09:16DJ EU Official: Greece May Need Further Austerity Measures-Report
ATHENS -The Greek government may need to adopt further austerity measures to meet its goal of cutting the deficit to 7.6% of gross domestic product in 2011, an European Union official told the Sunday edition of a Greek newspaper."The target for 2011 must be kept," Servaas Deroose, deputy head of the European Commission's directorate general for economic and financial affairs told Real News. "But achieving that target may require further corrective action, either on the spending side or on the revenue side."Greece is struggling to fix its public finances after narrowly avoiding bankruptcy in May with the help of a EUR110 billion loan from the EU and the International Monetary Fund. In exchange for the loan, Greece agreed to a tough three-year austerity and reform program that will bring the deficit below an EU-approved 3%-of-GDP ceiling by 2014.Deroose's remarks come two days after Eurostat, the EU statistics agency, announced that it will need another three weeks to finalize its review of Greek public accounts.According to Eurostat figures from April, Greece had a deficit of 13.6% of GDP last year. But the agency is widely expected to revise that estimate to above 15% when it releases final figures in mid-November.That revision, the second this year, imperils the government's target of cutting the budget gap to 8.1% of GDP in 2010, while it may also hamstring efforts to reach the 7.6% of GDP target in 2011 foreseen under the terms of the loan deal."There is no doubt that the revision of the 2009 data will have an impact on 2010 and 2011, although the size of that impact is not yet clear," Deroose is quoted as saying.His remarks also mirror comments earlier this month by European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, who told journalists that "some additional measures" from Greece may be needed.Greece's Socialist government, facing local elections Nov. 7--its first real political test since coming to power in late 2009--has been stressing that no further spending cuts or tax hikes will be necessary.Writing in a newspaper commentary Sunday, Prime Minister George Papandreou reaffirmed the government's commitment to fiscal and economic reform, and vowed that the country will exit from the EU/IMF program in 2013 as foreseen.In the commentary in To Vima, he also promised that: "Whatever happens, there will be no further burdens placed on wage earners or retirees, nor any increase in tax rates, beyond what we have committed to."Deroose said Greece has made "significant progress" in its efforts to narrow the deficit and reform the economy, but he criticized the government for its poor effort at stamping out tax evasion and boost lagging revenue, the paper reports.He also said market worries that Greece will need to restructure its debt are "baseless," the paper says.
2010/10/25 09:05=DJ FOREX VIEW: Dollar To Keep Firm On Smaller QE Estimates

2010/10/25 08:25DJ Japan September Exports +14.4% On Year; Expected +7.9% On Year
TOKYO -Japanese exports rose in September, due in part to demand for autos in China and other Asian countries, marking the tenth straight month of growth. Exports climbed 14.4% from a year earlier to Y5.843 trillion, the Ministry of Finance said Monday. The result exceeded the median forecast for a 7.9% rise in a poll of economists by . Exports rose 15.5% in August to Y5.208 trillion. Japan's trade surplus rose 54.0% to Y797.0 billion. The result beat expectations for a Y712.00 billion surplus in a poll of economists by . Exports to China were up 10.3%, while shipments to all Asian countries rose 14.3%, the ministry said. Exports to the U.S. rose 10.4%. Overall imports rose 9.9% to Y5.046 trillion. In July imports were up 17.9% from a year earlier to Y5.122 trillion.
2010/10/25 08:05*DJ Nikkei Stock Average Opens Down 0.02% At 9424.44

2010/10/25 08:05*DJ Nikkei Stock Average In Positive Territory

2010/10/25 08:02*DJ Lead 10-Year JGB Futures Open Up At 143.47 Vs 143.46

2010/10/25 07:43*DJ PBOC Advisor: Recent Rate Hike Won't Have Big Impact On Property Market

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