10:00GMT I think EURUSD will try a 40-60 pips drop from 1.3880..[*****] They were just waiting for me to show the target ;D
06:20GMT Market rumours are that we heading down on USDJPY fasten your seatbelt.. all JPYs may sink.. though based on my calendar the chances of hitting the depth is on Thursday and again on friday..
05:50GMT Last 12-14hrs its been raining very dull start here; an eye on EURUSD if it hits 1.3875ish then next stop is 1.3940ish nearly 100 pips there from now; though I wish it to hit 1.38 and then 1.3770ish.EURJPY likely to follow EURUSD..
04:45GMT IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn made the comments ahead of the fund's October8-10 annual meeting in which currency depreciations by governments to boost exports will be a key issue. "There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon," Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in comments. "Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery... Any such approach would have a negative and very damaging longer-run impact," he said. Countries risk undermining the global economic recovery if they use their currencies to try to boost domestic growth, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday in a newspaper interview.
01:00GMT Good Morning Friends, GBPUSD & EURUSD looking UP, I'm sure players will try to position this pair for t'mrrow's BOE & ECB decisions.EURJPY is following EURUSD but GBPJPY showing bothways i.e zigzag...will update on any changes.
Interesting article:
Why EURO is Soaring?
In the final week of September, Ireland's woes dominated the financial news agenda. The country's banks needed even more money. The national debt was soaring and the gap between government spending and tax revenues is set to make Greece look positively prudent.So you'd have expected the value of the euro to tank - right? After all, that's what happened when the fears over Greece kicked off. But you'd be wrong. In fact, sterling ended the week around 2% lower against the single currency. In other words, the idea of investing in British assets became less appealing than holding onto European ones, during a week in which the eurozone saw its biggest bout of sovereign debt fears since the last major panic. That can't be good. What does the currency market know that the rest of us don't? The thing you have to remember about currency markets is that everything is relative. Sometimes - when the global economy is roaring along happily - it's all about who has the 'best' economy. In rough times like these, it's all about whose is the 'least worst'. Ireland's situation is pretty worrying for the eurozone. Everything else being equal, it would probably have sent the euro down versus sterling. But all else isn't equal. Because, while Ireland was trying to tackle its problems, over in the UK various key representatives of the Bank of England were declaring to anyone who'd listen that the British economy is heading for serious trouble.First we had deputy governor Charles Bean urging savers to get out and spend for the sake of the economy. He effectively admitted that the Bank was deliberately courting inflation in order to discourage saving.
Then Adam Posen, the latest addition to the Bank's interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said that Britain needs another bout of quantitative easing (effectively money printing) if we are to have any hope of the recovery continuing.
The nation might be out of recession, but he's still worried about the prospect of a Japan-style slump. Posen is among those who blame Japan's current problems on the Japanese authorities' failure to print even more money than they did in their attempts to beat deflation.This is a debatable stance - certainly an unproven one - but that's a topic for another day. In essence, Posen is arguing that, until we've got the economy running at full tilt and heading towards full employment again, we should keep the printing presses churning. Why does this worry anyone who holds sterling? Well, despite all of the disasters and mistakes of the past decade or so, people still believe that central banks are nigh-on omniscient.So anyone who thought that the British economy was getting back on its feet is now wondering: if everything's OK, then why does the Bank want to print more money? What do they know that we don't?
Another slump in the economy would hit anyone holding sterling assets hard. Also, investors prefer to put their money in currencies that deliver a high return. That's partly driven by the level of interest rates in the country.A bank rate of 0.5% means you're not getting much of a yield (return) on your sterling holdings. And if the Bank seems to be more worried about deflation than inflation, then there's not much chance of rates rising in the near future. Thus far, quantitative easing (money printing) hasn't resulted in rampant consumer price inflation. That's because the money isn't getting through our banking system to the end user - the consumer.All that quantitative easing has actually done so far is drive asset prices - such as shares and bonds - higher, which has helped the banks to rebuild their profits (and bonuses).
Meanwhile, it has weakened sterling, which has made day-to-day living more expensive for the average man or woman in the street, at a time when most people are still living in fear for their jobs. In other words, arguably, it hasn't actually helped the 'real' economy. And while investors might be able to forgive the idea of experimenting with printing money in an emergency situation such as the financial crisis, the idea of printing money because inflation isn't quite as high as you'd like is another kettle of fish. So I suspect that news of another bout of quantitative easing would send the pound tumbling. And I don't think the Bank of England would be able even to pretend that it cares about the central 2% inflation target any more. Big exporters such as Japan and China want a weak currency to prop up their economic models. America wants a weak dollar for the same reasons Britain wants a weak pound - to spur exports and make home-grown industries more competitive. And while Europe seems to be keener to protect the euro for political reasons, there are too many fears over sovereign debts in that part of the world to be sure the euro won't be dealt a mortal blow at some point in the foreseeable future. This 'competitive devaluation' - also known as a 'currency war' - is why sterling may be unable to maintain its place as the 'ugliest of the ugly' for long. It's also the reason the gold price is rocketing (it's the only currency you can't print, as I've pointed out in the past).But for the last few years, as David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff pointed out recently, currency markets have been taking it in turns to sell down individual currencies - the euro, the dollar, the pound, even the yen - they've all had a shot.
How low for yen crosses?
ReplyDeletegj rsi is still pointing up I think.
ReplyDeleteI hate rumors.
well GJ dropped to 131.80ish GU is about to drop so I guess the rumour was true..
ReplyDelete