12:35GMT I think GBPJPY is highly likely to test 129.70ish as players will show their intention to hit stoploss for 129.90ish LONGs. EURUSD will try another above 1.400ish before the drop which must result 1.3780ish..
06:20GMT All Traders NFP Scenarios {Here "I" is the experts not Jeeson}
With today’s release, as per a special report by Bloomberg, the expectation ranges from -50K to +50K, counting on an increase in the private sector payrolls estimated at +77K versus the 67K release in August, and Census job in the public sector is expected at -78K. Market has shifted down its sentiment towards private sector jobs slightly after Wednesday’s ADP report of -39K versus +10K of expectation.
If you remember what took place during last NFP release, market reacted with optimism towards USD and risk appetite until the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which provided a reason for sharp reversal in the market.
We’ll probably see similar reaction if we get around 50K, but because we won’t have to deal with another high impact US news later on, market could strengthen and provide the much needed consolidation for the greenback.
One:If we get a significantly lower release on the NFP (-70K or worse) and Unemployment Rate (9.7% or worse), I’d be looking to BUY JPY (SELL USDJPY, SELL GBPJPY) on a retracement. There might be a chance to go LONG on GBP/USD or EUR/USD as “delayed trades” because the immediate reaction to another disappointing NFP release would prompt traders to SELL USD against JPY. But after the initial spike focused on strong JPY is over, traders will turn towards LONG on EUR and GBP while selling USD.
Two: if we get a positive NFP release (+50K or better) and the Unemployment Rate remains at 9.6% or better, JPY should weaken immediately as USD/JPY may recover and move above 84 throughout the trading session, and BOJ may just intervene taking advantage of a positive US data
Three:If we get a conflict release, we will wait and see how the market reacts first. If there is an overwhelming sentiment driving the market, there will be plenty of opportunities for entry. If you just wait for 5 minutes before making an entry, you’ll get a much clearer view.
01:00GMT Good Morning Friends, Like I mentioned yesterday, EURUSD must hit 1.3880-50ish and its yet to do the same. GBPUSD did a panic hit at 1.6110 - sounded like somebody booked a big sell from those levels. If it make same level for NFP then these range will stay for longer. A return to 1.5850s are showing that the -ve bias is bigger. The fireworks will be in EURUSD & JPY crosses. I think I'll watch EURUSD & GBPJPY, with USDJPY making new lows it will be interesting watch news too. At this moment all our pairs are pointing DOWN.
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