15:25GMT EURUSD sinking fast our indicators showing DOWN trend.
08:35GMT All our pairs showing UP though GBPs has already close to peak for now.
06:40GMT GBPs- most of the big players are saying current rates already factored in the Hung parliament. A big fall only for the worst result i.e 1 party get too good majority where they can do what-ever and nobody to question :D its funny to see how market changed its attitude.
03:25GMT Lookout for key data from 8AM-9AM. The price ride will be very important. With current trend I expect the last leg of "W" to start after data.
00:00GMT Good Morning Friends, As you can see we are in rebound trend for all our pairs. My instinct says that it will be a "W" pattern where the first leg is now complete. So wait for the RIGHT moment to enter Longs.
Showing posts with label Live FX TV. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Live FX TV. Show all posts
Tuesday, 20 April 2010
Market Rumours
2010/04/20 11:54DJ Bernanke, Shirakawa To Speak At Conference In Tokyo May 26
TOKYO -U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa will make opening remarks at an international conference in Tokyo held by the Japanese central bank on May 26, the BOJ said on Tuesday. Shirakawa and Bernanke are scheduled to deliver speeches at the opening of the two-day conference, the bank said.
2010/04/20 10:48DJ Japan Kan: To Achieve Positive CPI Within This Year Seems Difficult
TOKYO -Japan's Finance Minister said Tuesday that he hopes to push the country's consumer price index above zero from its current negative level within this year, but added that to achieve such a goal may be difficult.'My previous remarks to parliament about pushing the price level above zero within this year reflected my hopes. But I also said that, as the formal government position, it seems difficult to achieve within this year or over the coming year,' Naoto Kan told a parliamentary committee.
2010/04/20 09:59=DJ FED WATCH: SF Fed Downplays Long-term Jobless, Unemployment Insurance Link
NEW YORK -Those who believe the nation has made it too easy to be without a job are basically wrong, a new paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco argues.The research, published by the bank Monday, takes a look at the connections between extended periods of joblessness and the unemployment insurance system. The now ending recession has been defined by huge levels of unemployment, and the long periods of time that many are out of work.Congress has had to extend unemployment benefits on several occasions, but those actions have become more difficult and partisan. It's been a theme in some political circles that long-term unemployment insurance makes it too easy to stay unemployed. Sen. Jon Kyl (R., Ariz.) was widely quoted this spring as saying unemployment insurance creates a 'disincentive' to find new work.That's essentially wrong, economists Rob Valletta and Katherine Kuang write. They say the record high duration of unemployment has a 'quite small' relationship with the maximum amount of time one can draw unemployment benefits. 'Extended [unemployment insurance] benefits have had a relatively modest effect' on the jobless rate. 'We calculate that, in the absence of extended benefits, the unemployment rate would have been about 0.4 percentage point lower at the end of 2009, or about 9.6% rather than 10.0%.'The paper notes the economic crisis of the last few years has generated an 'unprecedented' level of unemployment duration. Those unemployed for more than six months hit 4.3% in March, 'well above' the previous high of 2.6% in 1983. The economists note that the current situation is all the more striking because the unemployment rate peak was quite a bit higher in that downturn, relative to what's been seen in this episode.The paper does warn, however, that if the current situation persisted it could create a permanent increase in the unemployed rate, although the researchers consider such an outcome 'unlikely.'Extended periods of unemployment are costly both to the government and to those without the jobs. Aside from the difficulty of paying for benefits in a time of huge deficits, joblessness lowers taxes receipts, dramatically depresses household income, and can lead to all manner of negative impacts on a worker's future ability to be hired. Skills atrophy, habits change, and workers can find it increasingly difficult to make their way back into the labor force.Economists and policy makers have been cheered by recent data that has showed the economy starting to add jobs in some strength. The unemployment rate in March was steady at 9.7% but the nation added 162,000 jobs, in what most believe is a turning point.But it will be a hard slog to make a big dent in the labor market given the economy's moderate rate of growth. The broadest government measure of unemployment, which counts the unemployed, those marginally attached to the labor force, and those working part-time involuntarily, has been rising this year, hitting 16.9% in March. While that remains under that measure's peak, it's a sign of the sickly underlying state of hiring.San Francisco Fed chief Janet Yellen warned earlier this month the unemployment rate may only tick down to 9.25% by year's end, before heading to a still high 8% by the end of 2011. If she's right, that suggests the problem of extended unemployment will be an enduring one. Economists and legislators alike will have to confront again the issue of unemployment insurance, both as a lifeline and as coddling element.
2010/04/20 09:40*DJ Japan Fin Min Kan: Hope To Push CPI Above Zero Within This Year
2010/04/20 09:38DJ Japan Finance Minister Kan: Forex Rates Should Be Set By Markets
TOKYO -Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said Tuesday that market forces should determine foreign exchange rates, effectively brushing aside calls by some ruling party lawmakers for efforts to lift the dollar to around Y120.'As finance minister, I am always supposed to say that markets should determine foreign exchange rates,' Kan said at a news conference after a regular Cabinet meeting.He said he wouldn't comment on recent proposals by a group of about 130 Democratic Party of Japan lawmakers that included calls for the government and the Bank of Japan to use their fiscal and monetary policy powers--including guiding foreign exchange levels--to combat deflation.But Kan said another proposal by the group that the government set an annual inflation target of over 2% was't unreasonable, and is worth considering.
2010/04/20 08:45DJ BOJ Shirakawa: Risk Of Double-Dip Recession Greatly Receding
TOKYO -Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said Tuesday that the risk of the Japanese economy slipping into a double-recession is receding greatly."Although the economic recovery is expected to be mild, the risk of a once-feared double-recession is greatly receding," Shirakawa told a parliamentary committee.Shirakawa also said the BOJ will patiently continue its very accommodative policy to beat deflation.The governor's words on the economic outlook and policy stance are in line with his recent remarks.
2010/04/20 07:33DJ Fed's Duke Sees Rise In Bank Loans To Small Firms Later This Year
WASHINGTON -U.S. bank loans to small companies should rise later this year thanks to a stronger economy, a top Federal Reserve official said Monday.Fed Board Governor Elizabeth Duke said although access to credit for many small firms remains restricted, she's optimistic that loans will increase in the near future."Notably, overall economic conditions, the most important determinant of the demand for and availability of small business lending, have improved considerably since the early and middle part of last year," Duke said in prepared remarks at an economic development forum.To be sure, the Fed official said the U.S. economy still faces considerable challenges, especially due to a high unemployment rate and a still weak commercial real estate sector.So far, most of the stabilization in the unemployment rate has come from a sharp reduction in layoffs, Duke said. "We have not yet seen any substantial improvement in hiring rates," the Fed official said, adding she expects employers to continue to add jobs cautiously.Following the worst recession since the 1930s Great Depression, almost one in 10 Americans don't have a job. The March jobs report showed some improvement in the U.S. labor market, but the Fed expects the unemployment rate to remain above 9% until the end of this year. Hit hard by the loss of businesses and employment, much retail, office, and industrial space stands vacant, Duke noted. A turnaround in commercial real estate is therefore likely to lag the improvement in overall economic activity.However, the Fed official added the sector's performance will gradually begin to improve as the economy continues to strengthen.
2010/04/20 06:40DJ EU Group To Mull Updating State Aid Rules For Airlines
BRUSSELS -The European high-level group convened to discuss the economic impact of the volcanic eruption on Europe's airline industry will look at updating state aid rules to clarify how airlines impacted by flight plans can benefit from government help, the European Commission's competition spokeswoman Amelia Torres said Monday.The commission has rules that allows member states to compensate companies for damage caused by natural catastrophes, Torres said.These could be applied to compensate airlines in these exceptional circumstances, she said.We are ready, if need be, to update existing guidelines put in place following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 to "provide guidance" to our member states rapidly, Torres said.However, the commission wasn't aware of any airline having so far requested to receive government support, she said.
2010/04/20 06:07=DJ Fed's Bernanke: Fed Had Limited Oversight On Lehman
WASHINGTON -The Federal Reserve was not aware of the use of controversial repurchase agreements undertaken by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ahead of its bankruptcy at the height of the financial crisis, Chairman Ben Bernanke said in remarks prepared for a Tuesday U.S. House hearing.Bernanke, in testimony for the House Financial Services Committee, said the Fed had limited oversight of the firm, with no authority over Lehman's risk management or disclosures. That meant Fed regulators were not aware of the so-called 'Repo 105' transactions.'Indeed, according to the bankruptcy examiner, Lehman staff did not report these transactions even to the company's board,' Bernanke said in the remarks.He also reiterated that the government had no choice but to let Lehman declare bankruptcy in September 2008 after the firm and federal officials were unable to arrange financing or an acquisition of the bank.'At that time, neither the Federal Reserve nor any other agency had the authority to provide capital or an unsecured guarantee, and thus no means of preventing Lehman's failure existed,' Bernanke said.The lesson of the Lehman collapse, he continued, is that lawmakers need to subject large, interconnected firms to 'robust consolidated supervision' and have the ability to resolve them if they start to falter.'Such a regime would both protect our economy and improve market discipline by ensuring that the failing firm's shareholders and creditors take losses and its management is replaced,' Bernanke said.
2010/04/20 04:17DJ Fed Paper Urges Better Data Use To Help Prevent Future Crises
WASHINGTON -Regulators should adopt a more dynamic approach in using economic data in order to help prevent a new financial crisis, a U.S. Federal Reserve paper said Monday.The paper, which was co-authored by Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, argues that combining macroeconomic data showing trends like the large rise in household debt with specialized data, such as borrowers' solicitations showing the rapid decline of underwriting standards, may have helped supervisors spot the crisis earlier.Supervisors should act like intelligence analysts, who begin by looking at grainy satellite images, which the paper compares to aggregate data. The supervisor should then follow up by bringing other resources to better understand the full picture, the paper says."We believe that such coordination, with the analysis of aggregate data leading to the identification of those areas where work with more-specialized data should be targeted, should be a key aspect of the paradigm in future financial stability work," the paper says.The 42-pages paper will be presented at the fifth European Central Bank conference on central bank statistics, which is slated to take place in Frankfurt on Thursday and Friday.In the wake of the crisis, financial supervisors and policymakers are working to expand and improve data collection. But that is only part of the process in developing early-warning system to prevent future crises, the Fed paper argues."More fundamental, in our view, is the need to use data in a different way - in a way that can deliver more flexibility in targeting than static data collection can allow," the paper says.An approach relying on expanded collection of aggregate data followed by more-targeted and specialized information "could have been helpful in the period leading up to the recent crisis," according to the Fed paper.
TOKYO -U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa will make opening remarks at an international conference in Tokyo held by the Japanese central bank on May 26, the BOJ said on Tuesday. Shirakawa and Bernanke are scheduled to deliver speeches at the opening of the two-day conference, the bank said.
2010/04/20 10:48DJ Japan Kan: To Achieve Positive CPI Within This Year Seems Difficult
TOKYO -Japan's Finance Minister said Tuesday that he hopes to push the country's consumer price index above zero from its current negative level within this year, but added that to achieve such a goal may be difficult.'My previous remarks to parliament about pushing the price level above zero within this year reflected my hopes. But I also said that, as the formal government position, it seems difficult to achieve within this year or over the coming year,' Naoto Kan told a parliamentary committee.
2010/04/20 09:59=DJ FED WATCH: SF Fed Downplays Long-term Jobless, Unemployment Insurance Link
NEW YORK -Those who believe the nation has made it too easy to be without a job are basically wrong, a new paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco argues.The research, published by the bank Monday, takes a look at the connections between extended periods of joblessness and the unemployment insurance system. The now ending recession has been defined by huge levels of unemployment, and the long periods of time that many are out of work.Congress has had to extend unemployment benefits on several occasions, but those actions have become more difficult and partisan. It's been a theme in some political circles that long-term unemployment insurance makes it too easy to stay unemployed. Sen. Jon Kyl (R., Ariz.) was widely quoted this spring as saying unemployment insurance creates a 'disincentive' to find new work.That's essentially wrong, economists Rob Valletta and Katherine Kuang write. They say the record high duration of unemployment has a 'quite small' relationship with the maximum amount of time one can draw unemployment benefits. 'Extended [unemployment insurance] benefits have had a relatively modest effect' on the jobless rate. 'We calculate that, in the absence of extended benefits, the unemployment rate would have been about 0.4 percentage point lower at the end of 2009, or about 9.6% rather than 10.0%.'The paper notes the economic crisis of the last few years has generated an 'unprecedented' level of unemployment duration. Those unemployed for more than six months hit 4.3% in March, 'well above' the previous high of 2.6% in 1983. The economists note that the current situation is all the more striking because the unemployment rate peak was quite a bit higher in that downturn, relative to what's been seen in this episode.The paper does warn, however, that if the current situation persisted it could create a permanent increase in the unemployed rate, although the researchers consider such an outcome 'unlikely.'Extended periods of unemployment are costly both to the government and to those without the jobs. Aside from the difficulty of paying for benefits in a time of huge deficits, joblessness lowers taxes receipts, dramatically depresses household income, and can lead to all manner of negative impacts on a worker's future ability to be hired. Skills atrophy, habits change, and workers can find it increasingly difficult to make their way back into the labor force.Economists and policy makers have been cheered by recent data that has showed the economy starting to add jobs in some strength. The unemployment rate in March was steady at 9.7% but the nation added 162,000 jobs, in what most believe is a turning point.But it will be a hard slog to make a big dent in the labor market given the economy's moderate rate of growth. The broadest government measure of unemployment, which counts the unemployed, those marginally attached to the labor force, and those working part-time involuntarily, has been rising this year, hitting 16.9% in March. While that remains under that measure's peak, it's a sign of the sickly underlying state of hiring.San Francisco Fed chief Janet Yellen warned earlier this month the unemployment rate may only tick down to 9.25% by year's end, before heading to a still high 8% by the end of 2011. If she's right, that suggests the problem of extended unemployment will be an enduring one. Economists and legislators alike will have to confront again the issue of unemployment insurance, both as a lifeline and as coddling element.
2010/04/20 09:40*DJ Japan Fin Min Kan: Hope To Push CPI Above Zero Within This Year
2010/04/20 09:38DJ Japan Finance Minister Kan: Forex Rates Should Be Set By Markets
TOKYO -Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said Tuesday that market forces should determine foreign exchange rates, effectively brushing aside calls by some ruling party lawmakers for efforts to lift the dollar to around Y120.'As finance minister, I am always supposed to say that markets should determine foreign exchange rates,' Kan said at a news conference after a regular Cabinet meeting.He said he wouldn't comment on recent proposals by a group of about 130 Democratic Party of Japan lawmakers that included calls for the government and the Bank of Japan to use their fiscal and monetary policy powers--including guiding foreign exchange levels--to combat deflation.But Kan said another proposal by the group that the government set an annual inflation target of over 2% was't unreasonable, and is worth considering.
2010/04/20 08:45DJ BOJ Shirakawa: Risk Of Double-Dip Recession Greatly Receding
TOKYO -Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said Tuesday that the risk of the Japanese economy slipping into a double-recession is receding greatly."Although the economic recovery is expected to be mild, the risk of a once-feared double-recession is greatly receding," Shirakawa told a parliamentary committee.Shirakawa also said the BOJ will patiently continue its very accommodative policy to beat deflation.The governor's words on the economic outlook and policy stance are in line with his recent remarks.
2010/04/20 07:33DJ Fed's Duke Sees Rise In Bank Loans To Small Firms Later This Year
WASHINGTON -U.S. bank loans to small companies should rise later this year thanks to a stronger economy, a top Federal Reserve official said Monday.Fed Board Governor Elizabeth Duke said although access to credit for many small firms remains restricted, she's optimistic that loans will increase in the near future."Notably, overall economic conditions, the most important determinant of the demand for and availability of small business lending, have improved considerably since the early and middle part of last year," Duke said in prepared remarks at an economic development forum.To be sure, the Fed official said the U.S. economy still faces considerable challenges, especially due to a high unemployment rate and a still weak commercial real estate sector.So far, most of the stabilization in the unemployment rate has come from a sharp reduction in layoffs, Duke said. "We have not yet seen any substantial improvement in hiring rates," the Fed official said, adding she expects employers to continue to add jobs cautiously.Following the worst recession since the 1930s Great Depression, almost one in 10 Americans don't have a job. The March jobs report showed some improvement in the U.S. labor market, but the Fed expects the unemployment rate to remain above 9% until the end of this year. Hit hard by the loss of businesses and employment, much retail, office, and industrial space stands vacant, Duke noted. A turnaround in commercial real estate is therefore likely to lag the improvement in overall economic activity.However, the Fed official added the sector's performance will gradually begin to improve as the economy continues to strengthen.
2010/04/20 06:40DJ EU Group To Mull Updating State Aid Rules For Airlines
BRUSSELS -The European high-level group convened to discuss the economic impact of the volcanic eruption on Europe's airline industry will look at updating state aid rules to clarify how airlines impacted by flight plans can benefit from government help, the European Commission's competition spokeswoman Amelia Torres said Monday.The commission has rules that allows member states to compensate companies for damage caused by natural catastrophes, Torres said.These could be applied to compensate airlines in these exceptional circumstances, she said.We are ready, if need be, to update existing guidelines put in place following the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 to "provide guidance" to our member states rapidly, Torres said.However, the commission wasn't aware of any airline having so far requested to receive government support, she said.
2010/04/20 06:07=DJ Fed's Bernanke: Fed Had Limited Oversight On Lehman
WASHINGTON -The Federal Reserve was not aware of the use of controversial repurchase agreements undertaken by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ahead of its bankruptcy at the height of the financial crisis, Chairman Ben Bernanke said in remarks prepared for a Tuesday U.S. House hearing.Bernanke, in testimony for the House Financial Services Committee, said the Fed had limited oversight of the firm, with no authority over Lehman's risk management or disclosures. That meant Fed regulators were not aware of the so-called 'Repo 105' transactions.'Indeed, according to the bankruptcy examiner, Lehman staff did not report these transactions even to the company's board,' Bernanke said in the remarks.He also reiterated that the government had no choice but to let Lehman declare bankruptcy in September 2008 after the firm and federal officials were unable to arrange financing or an acquisition of the bank.'At that time, neither the Federal Reserve nor any other agency had the authority to provide capital or an unsecured guarantee, and thus no means of preventing Lehman's failure existed,' Bernanke said.The lesson of the Lehman collapse, he continued, is that lawmakers need to subject large, interconnected firms to 'robust consolidated supervision' and have the ability to resolve them if they start to falter.'Such a regime would both protect our economy and improve market discipline by ensuring that the failing firm's shareholders and creditors take losses and its management is replaced,' Bernanke said.
2010/04/20 04:17DJ Fed Paper Urges Better Data Use To Help Prevent Future Crises
WASHINGTON -Regulators should adopt a more dynamic approach in using economic data in order to help prevent a new financial crisis, a U.S. Federal Reserve paper said Monday.The paper, which was co-authored by Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, argues that combining macroeconomic data showing trends like the large rise in household debt with specialized data, such as borrowers' solicitations showing the rapid decline of underwriting standards, may have helped supervisors spot the crisis earlier.Supervisors should act like intelligence analysts, who begin by looking at grainy satellite images, which the paper compares to aggregate data. The supervisor should then follow up by bringing other resources to better understand the full picture, the paper says."We believe that such coordination, with the analysis of aggregate data leading to the identification of those areas where work with more-specialized data should be targeted, should be a key aspect of the paradigm in future financial stability work," the paper says.The 42-pages paper will be presented at the fifth European Central Bank conference on central bank statistics, which is slated to take place in Frankfurt on Thursday and Friday.In the wake of the crisis, financial supervisors and policymakers are working to expand and improve data collection. But that is only part of the process in developing early-warning system to prevent future crises, the Fed paper argues."More fundamental, in our view, is the need to use data in a different way - in a way that can deliver more flexibility in targeting than static data collection can allow," the paper says.An approach relying on expanded collection of aggregate data followed by more-targeted and specialized information "could have been helpful in the period leading up to the recent crisis," according to the Fed paper.
Technical Play
BIG SELLs
GBPUSD - 1.5420s
GBPJPY - 142.70s
EURJPY - 125.50s
EURUSD - 1.3550s
BIG BUYs
GBPUSD - 1.5240s
GBPJPY - 141.00s
EURJPY - 124.10s
EURUSD - 1.3420s
GBPUSD - 1.5420s
GBPJPY - 142.70s
EURJPY - 125.50s
EURUSD - 1.3550s
BIG BUYs
GBPUSD - 1.5240s
GBPJPY - 141.00s
EURJPY - 124.10s
EURUSD - 1.3420s
Monday, 19 April 2010
My Forecasts
16:15GMT We are in for wild rides in JPYs - GBPJPY showing narrow UPtrend but EURJPY still thinking.
15:50GMT Indicators were good The DOWN trend to continue based on UK close.
12:40GMT I hope technical play section was useful, as mentioned earlier the slide happened and now jump started the UP trend. Don't get excited- indicators are still neutral not yet UP so wait for the big climb or confirmation..
00:00GMT Good Morning Friends, Well we saw a drop dead game in GBPUSD where as slide in EURs. GBPUSD. GBPJPY and EURJPYs are building their UP trend momentum by dropping below our BUY levels. My take is that they will slide and then jump start their UP trend. EURUSD still looks fragile with Greek+Volcano+plus many other issues. No major data other than 5GMT JPY, 9GMT EUR & afternoon USD minor releases. The surprise factor for GBP is that over the weekend Lib-dems took the lead in opinion poll. If it continues GBPUSD dip can go to new lows say 1.4 levels. Just a word of caution.
15:50GMT Indicators were good The DOWN trend to continue based on UK close.
12:40GMT I hope technical play section was useful, as mentioned earlier the slide happened and now jump started the UP trend. Don't get excited- indicators are still neutral not yet UP so wait for the big climb or confirmation..
00:00GMT Good Morning Friends, Well we saw a drop dead game in GBPUSD where as slide in EURs. GBPUSD. GBPJPY and EURJPYs are building their UP trend momentum by dropping below our BUY levels. My take is that they will slide and then jump start their UP trend. EURUSD still looks fragile with Greek+Volcano+plus many other issues. No major data other than 5GMT JPY, 9GMT EUR & afternoon USD minor releases. The surprise factor for GBP is that over the weekend Lib-dems took the lead in opinion poll. If it continues GBPUSD dip can go to new lows say 1.4 levels. Just a word of caution.
Market Rumours
2010/04/19 18:05DJ Min To Meet Industry Leaders Over Disruption Caused By Ash Cloud
BERLIN -The country's economics minister said he planned to meet Monday afternoon with leaders from domestic companies hit by air traffic disruptions caused by the volcanic eruption in Iceland. Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle said in a statement that continuing closure of airports and airspace in Germany has already interrupted the flow of customers and goods for many companies in sectors including tourism, logistics and postal services. The eruption that began Wednesday and has sent a massive cloud of volcanic ash billowing over much of Europe 'is impairing the economy's value-added chain to a formidable degree,' Bruederle said.
2010/04/19 18:03*DJ Germany's Bundesbank: GDP Probably Fell In 1Q 2010
2010/04/19 17:06=DJ Forex Focus: Euro/Dollar Fall Will Come--But Slowly
LONDON -Blowing the euro/dollar down and out of its recent narrow trading range could take some time. Last week's news that Greece is about to seek an actual bailout on its debt is hardly good news for the euro. However, disappointment that the Fed isn't closer to hiking interest rates in the U.S. isn't good news for the dollar either. As a result, the currency pair has once again shown little momentum in either direction and has slumped back into trading either side of $1.36. See the euro's recent moves against the dollar: http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3839 Nevertheless, a downside break in the euro still remains more likely as, with U.S. data still showing a strengthening economic recovery, it will only be a matter of time before dollar yields start to discount a rise in interest rates. The timing, of course, will probably depend very much on any increase in inflationary pressures as much as anything else. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen helped to drive this point home at the end of last week with her suggestion that current 'subdued' inflation levels aren't distorted too much by weak house prices. Her comments very much echoed the dovish stance taken by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier in the week when he repeated that interest rates will remain at their current low levels for an extended period. Many had hoped he was going to use his latest appearance in front of Congress to signal that tighter policy is on its way. So, anyone expecting yield differentials to move in favor of the U.S. currency were disappointed. The euro, though, was hardly able to capitalize on that as Greece edged ever closer to activating its debt rescue package. Until last week, the hope was that the package would reassure the investment community enough to allow Greece to continue funding its budget deficit by raising competitively-priced funds in the market. However, a small note auction last week proved that while investors may be prepared to continue lending to Greece they will only do so at a high price. By the end of the week, Athens was admitting that another bond auction due to be offered to U.S. investors was hardly likely to be successful and that it is now requesting formal negotiations with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. In essence, such a move suggests that all the negotiations aimed at ensuring that Greek could help itself have now failed. This not only means that the rather vague promise by the E.U. and the IMF to make EUR45 billion available to Greece will now have to be hammered out in more detail, but that Germany, the main provider of the funds, will now have to gain constitutional court permission to participate. Hans Redeker, head of global foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London, said it all: 'Greece activating the aid package is a sign of failure and will be watched by the German government with horror.' 'The Merkel administration has hoped that the pure existence of the aid package would prevent funds from the package being drawn, but now as the aid package is likely to be activated it will only take a number of days before the German constitutional court swings into action,' Redeker warned. If that happens, then it isn't just Germany's key participation in the package that will be put in doubt, but the whole future of its participation in the euro could be in question. Early Monday in Europe, the euro was coming under pressure, as were most other high-yielders, as investors once again headed for safe havens. Tumbling stocks, driven by the news that Goldman Sachs has been charged with fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission and fears that this will impact other U.S. banks, and a delay in an Athens meeting of E.U. and IMF officials because of European airport closures, are both driving sentiment lower. By 0645 GMT, the euro was down at $1.3439 from $1.3506 late Friday in New York, according to EBS. The single currency was also down at Y123.34 from Y124.47, while the dollar fell to Y91.79 from Y92.15. Bloomberg TNI FRX POV Reuters USD/DJ Thomson P/1066 or P/1074
2010/04/19 14:58DJ Forex Options: Dlr/Yen Options Up After Spot Hits 3-Week Low
TOKYO -Dollar/yen currency options rose Monday in Asia as the underlying exchange rate declined to a three-week low, causing players to buy both upside and downside protection. The greenback fell to Y91.83, its lowest since March 25, during the early Asian session due to an uncertain outlook on the U.S financial market following last week's news the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's is filing charges against Goldman Sachs on allegations it defrauded investors in mortgage securities markets. Benchmark one-month at-the-money dollar/yen implied volatilities gained to 10.20%/10.90%, compared with 9.75%/10.45% in New York Friday. As of 0300 GMT, the U.S. unit stood at Y92.08. On mounting views the spot market may extend its losses, some players bought at-the-money dollar/yen straddles, which benefit from greater volatility, expiring later in the day, an options trader said. The number of contracts was unknown. Meanwhile, one-month at-the-money euro/dollar currency options also gained to 10.10%/10.50% from 9.95%/10.35% in New York Friday after the euro marked a one-week low at $1.3446. A market participant sold one-week euro-call/dollar-put options with a $1.3500 strike price, the options trader said. Such protection makes money for holders when the euro rises above the strike price.
2010/04/19 10:05DJ UK's Brown Calls Emergency Meeting On Air-Travel Crisis
LONDON (AFP) --U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown called an emergency meeting of ministers Sunday to discuss how to respond to the volcano ash cloud that has grounded flights across Europe, his office said. Ministers including Transport Secretary Andrew Adonis gathered in Brown's Downing Street residence for the talks, which come ahead of a European Union ministerial video conference on the crisis Monday. The meeting was called to 'discuss the ongoing situation resulting from the presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, and look at what more the government can do to mitigate its effects,' said a Downing Street spokesman. The talks also covered issues including 'the assistance being provided to those Britons who have been unable to travel home, and the implications for industry.' 'They will also look at what more can be done on a European level,' the spokesman added, ahead of Monday's video conference of European Union transport ministers called by the 27-nation bloc's current Spanish presidency. The British meeting came shortly after London extended a ban on all flights in its airspace until 0600 GMT on Monday, and as British Airways flew a test flight to assess the impact of the volcanic ash. Brown is currently campaigning for May 6 elections in which his governing Labour Party is struggling to hang on to power after 13 years in office. Shortly after Brown succeeded Tony Blair in 2007, his handling of a series of crises, including foiled car bombings, floods and a major foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, was credited with a surge in his poll ratings, which then collapsed after he canceled widely anticipated snap elections.
2010/04/19 09:40=DJ FOREX VIEW: : Greece At Fore Of A Busy Week
NEW YORK -Major currencies are in for a volatile week as events surrounding debt-laden Greece will likely continue to dominate trade. Investors will also watch for any further fallout from the Securities and Exchange Commission's charges against Goldman Sachs (GS), which prompted a flight to the safety of the dollar and the yen Friday. With a host of major companies reporting first-quarter results next week, the stock market could also have a decisive role to play in the currency markets. Beyond these factors, the possibility of a yuan revaluation--widely expected sometime in the next three months--will also keep investors on their toes. Given all the uncertainty, analysts see the euro fluctuating next week between $1.30 and $1.35 and the dollar holding between Y90 and Y95. Late afternoon, the euro was changing hands at $1.3505 from $1.3577 late Thursday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y92.13 from Y93.04. 'Greece is definitely casting a shadow over trading right now,' said Brian Kim, currency strategist at UBS in Stamford, Conn. The market exited trade Friday in a distinctly risk-averse mood, with investors clearly favoring the dollar and the yen over growth-sensitive currencies. Investors increasingly expect Greece will be forced to tap emergency loans, but there's widespread uncertainty about whether the loans will be sufficient. Athens has yet to request support for its debt woes, despite a EUR30 billion aid package the European Union and International Monetary Fund crafted for it. 'There are no clear gauges on what's going to happen or what's going to be the spark to activate that package,' Kim said. Representatives from the European Union and the European Central Bank as well as International Monetary Fund officials are due to meet in Athens Monday to start formal discussions on an aid package for Greece. On Friday, Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the euro group of finance ministers and the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, said nothing 'noteworthy' will happen Monday regarding the Greek bailout package. The yen, the ultimate safe-haven currency, gained against its rivals Friday as investors fled risky assets after the SEC charged Goldman with fraud. Goldman shares plunged, and other bank shares suffered, too, pressuring the overall stock market. Jitters could persist after the SEC said it will look at other structured finance deals put together by Wall Street that are similar to the Goldman offering. Goldman is just one of several big banks due to report earnings in the week, as earnings season continues. Citigroup posts Monday before the opening bell in New York. Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon and U.S. Bancorp are up later in the week. The global economy will also be on investors' radar screen as global financial leaders gather end-week in Washington for the IMF and World Bank Spring meetings. Stronger-than-expected economic growth data in China this week heightened expectations that China will allow its currency to rise against the U.S. dollar, which would help address global imbalances. The yuan has been held roughly fixed against the dollar since July 2008. In other currencies, the U.K. pound continues to face downward pressure at a time of political uncertainties ahead of the country's general election next month. In Britain's first televised election debate on Thursday, Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg outshone his two front-running rivals, fomenting fears of a hung parliament, an unauspicious outcome from a currency market standpoint. In Canada, investors stand ready to parse a Bank of Canada policy statement, due out Tuesday, for hints of future rate hikes. The central bank has promised to maintain its current benchmark overnight lending rate of 0.25% until July. A stream of better-than-expected economic indicators in Canada has prompted widespread speculation about when the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates, and by how much.
2010/04/19 09:08DJ ECB's Noyer: Europe Is In Period Of Fragile Economic Growth
PARIS -A senior European monetary official reaffirmed Saturday that the European economic recovery remains fragile and 2010 will be a year of redressing post recessionary economic growth.European Central Bank governing board member Christian Noyer said nations must beef up the capacity of their economies to grow. The economies are still faced with uncertainties, he added.Noyer reiterated that the fiscal measures undertaken by Greece to bring its budget deficit and public debt into order have been rigorous and credible.But he cautioned that if governments continue spending at rates that exceed economic growth, public sector deficits and debt will become unmanageable.Noyer is also the head of the French central bank.The official also said he is hopeful employment will resume growing in France and elsewhere within a few months, as economies grow this year.
2010/04/19 07:38=DJ DATA SNAP: UK Rightmove Mar House Price Index +2.6%MM, +6.0%YY
LONDON -U.K. house prices rose sharply in early April from March boosted by activity among cash-rich buyers paying premium prices for homes in desirable areas, despite an increase in the number of properties available for sale, a survey by Rightmove showed Monday.According to Rightmove's latest index, house prices in mid-April rose 2.6% on the month and were 6.0% higher compared with a year earlier.That compares with a minimal 0.1% rise on the month and a 5.3% increase on the year in March.The increase in asking prices is being maintained by still high demand for more desirable--and typically more expensive--properties of which there are still fewer available for sale, the survey shows."Rarer property types in desirable locations are achieving record prices," said Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove. "There is increasing divergence between these different markets, with agents reporting some pockets where a couple of viewings find a cash-rich buyer, whereas a few miles down the road it's taking over 20 viewings to achieve a sale".Rightmove added that so far, pre-election jitters are not stopping sellers entering the housing market."The run up to the election appears to be having little effect on the housing market," Rightmove said. "However, some opinion polls suggest that a hung parliament is still a real possibility, and the uncertainty over who will form the next government may continue for much longer than usual."The ongoing pickup in house prices is in line with other indexes, with lenders Nationwide and Halifax both reporting significant monthly price gains in March.But, the price rises are not expected to continue in the second half of the year as looming tax increases and government spending cuts weigh on confidence and finances."This year more than ever the traditional spring seller window is a price sensitive one, if asking prices continue to rise, all but the most popular locations are building themselves up for some of the gains to be lost later in the year," Shipside said.The average amount of time a property is taking to sell rose to 70 days in early April from just 63 days a month earlier, Rightmove said. The data also show that the average number of properties for sale per estate agent rose for a second straight month to 68 in March from 65 in February. By region, prices rose from March in nine of the 10 regions. The largest gains were a 4.9% monthly price rise in East Anglia, a 4.5% increase in the West Midlands of England and a 3.7% pickup in South-East England in April from March.The only reported house price fall was a 0.7% monthly decline in North-West England, the survey shows.Rightmove measured 129,898 asking prices of properties put on sale by estate agents between Mar 7 and Apr 10.A separate survey also released Monday, suggests that while consumption is set to recover only slowly and cautiously from the deepest recession since World War II, a more upbeat export sector will probably be the engine behind continued economic expansion in 2011."There are good reasons to be optimistic about exports and overseas demand," said Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club. "The immediate prospects for the economy remain dismal and we still think that the U.K. will struggle to achieve 1% growth this year," Spencer said.Web site: www.rightmove.co.uk
BERLIN -The country's economics minister said he planned to meet Monday afternoon with leaders from domestic companies hit by air traffic disruptions caused by the volcanic eruption in Iceland. Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle said in a statement that continuing closure of airports and airspace in Germany has already interrupted the flow of customers and goods for many companies in sectors including tourism, logistics and postal services. The eruption that began Wednesday and has sent a massive cloud of volcanic ash billowing over much of Europe 'is impairing the economy's value-added chain to a formidable degree,' Bruederle said.
2010/04/19 18:03*DJ Germany's Bundesbank: GDP Probably Fell In 1Q 2010
2010/04/19 17:06=DJ Forex Focus: Euro/Dollar Fall Will Come--But Slowly
LONDON -Blowing the euro/dollar down and out of its recent narrow trading range could take some time. Last week's news that Greece is about to seek an actual bailout on its debt is hardly good news for the euro. However, disappointment that the Fed isn't closer to hiking interest rates in the U.S. isn't good news for the dollar either. As a result, the currency pair has once again shown little momentum in either direction and has slumped back into trading either side of $1.36. See the euro's recent moves against the dollar: http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3839 Nevertheless, a downside break in the euro still remains more likely as, with U.S. data still showing a strengthening economic recovery, it will only be a matter of time before dollar yields start to discount a rise in interest rates. The timing, of course, will probably depend very much on any increase in inflationary pressures as much as anything else. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen helped to drive this point home at the end of last week with her suggestion that current 'subdued' inflation levels aren't distorted too much by weak house prices. Her comments very much echoed the dovish stance taken by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier in the week when he repeated that interest rates will remain at their current low levels for an extended period. Many had hoped he was going to use his latest appearance in front of Congress to signal that tighter policy is on its way. So, anyone expecting yield differentials to move in favor of the U.S. currency were disappointed. The euro, though, was hardly able to capitalize on that as Greece edged ever closer to activating its debt rescue package. Until last week, the hope was that the package would reassure the investment community enough to allow Greece to continue funding its budget deficit by raising competitively-priced funds in the market. However, a small note auction last week proved that while investors may be prepared to continue lending to Greece they will only do so at a high price. By the end of the week, Athens was admitting that another bond auction due to be offered to U.S. investors was hardly likely to be successful and that it is now requesting formal negotiations with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. In essence, such a move suggests that all the negotiations aimed at ensuring that Greek could help itself have now failed. This not only means that the rather vague promise by the E.U. and the IMF to make EUR45 billion available to Greece will now have to be hammered out in more detail, but that Germany, the main provider of the funds, will now have to gain constitutional court permission to participate. Hans Redeker, head of global foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London, said it all: 'Greece activating the aid package is a sign of failure and will be watched by the German government with horror.' 'The Merkel administration has hoped that the pure existence of the aid package would prevent funds from the package being drawn, but now as the aid package is likely to be activated it will only take a number of days before the German constitutional court swings into action,' Redeker warned. If that happens, then it isn't just Germany's key participation in the package that will be put in doubt, but the whole future of its participation in the euro could be in question. Early Monday in Europe, the euro was coming under pressure, as were most other high-yielders, as investors once again headed for safe havens. Tumbling stocks, driven by the news that Goldman Sachs has been charged with fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission and fears that this will impact other U.S. banks, and a delay in an Athens meeting of E.U. and IMF officials because of European airport closures, are both driving sentiment lower. By 0645 GMT, the euro was down at $1.3439 from $1.3506 late Friday in New York, according to EBS. The single currency was also down at Y123.34 from Y124.47, while the dollar fell to Y91.79 from Y92.15. Bloomberg TNI FRX POV Reuters USD/DJ Thomson P/1066 or P/1074
2010/04/19 14:58DJ Forex Options: Dlr/Yen Options Up After Spot Hits 3-Week Low
TOKYO -Dollar/yen currency options rose Monday in Asia as the underlying exchange rate declined to a three-week low, causing players to buy both upside and downside protection. The greenback fell to Y91.83, its lowest since March 25, during the early Asian session due to an uncertain outlook on the U.S financial market following last week's news the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's is filing charges against Goldman Sachs on allegations it defrauded investors in mortgage securities markets. Benchmark one-month at-the-money dollar/yen implied volatilities gained to 10.20%/10.90%, compared with 9.75%/10.45% in New York Friday. As of 0300 GMT, the U.S. unit stood at Y92.08. On mounting views the spot market may extend its losses, some players bought at-the-money dollar/yen straddles, which benefit from greater volatility, expiring later in the day, an options trader said. The number of contracts was unknown. Meanwhile, one-month at-the-money euro/dollar currency options also gained to 10.10%/10.50% from 9.95%/10.35% in New York Friday after the euro marked a one-week low at $1.3446. A market participant sold one-week euro-call/dollar-put options with a $1.3500 strike price, the options trader said. Such protection makes money for holders when the euro rises above the strike price.
2010/04/19 10:05DJ UK's Brown Calls Emergency Meeting On Air-Travel Crisis
LONDON (AFP) --U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown called an emergency meeting of ministers Sunday to discuss how to respond to the volcano ash cloud that has grounded flights across Europe, his office said. Ministers including Transport Secretary Andrew Adonis gathered in Brown's Downing Street residence for the talks, which come ahead of a European Union ministerial video conference on the crisis Monday. The meeting was called to 'discuss the ongoing situation resulting from the presence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere, and look at what more the government can do to mitigate its effects,' said a Downing Street spokesman. The talks also covered issues including 'the assistance being provided to those Britons who have been unable to travel home, and the implications for industry.' 'They will also look at what more can be done on a European level,' the spokesman added, ahead of Monday's video conference of European Union transport ministers called by the 27-nation bloc's current Spanish presidency. The British meeting came shortly after London extended a ban on all flights in its airspace until 0600 GMT on Monday, and as British Airways flew a test flight to assess the impact of the volcanic ash. Brown is currently campaigning for May 6 elections in which his governing Labour Party is struggling to hang on to power after 13 years in office. Shortly after Brown succeeded Tony Blair in 2007, his handling of a series of crises, including foiled car bombings, floods and a major foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, was credited with a surge in his poll ratings, which then collapsed after he canceled widely anticipated snap elections.
2010/04/19 09:40=DJ FOREX VIEW: : Greece At Fore Of A Busy Week
NEW YORK -Major currencies are in for a volatile week as events surrounding debt-laden Greece will likely continue to dominate trade. Investors will also watch for any further fallout from the Securities and Exchange Commission's charges against Goldman Sachs (GS), which prompted a flight to the safety of the dollar and the yen Friday. With a host of major companies reporting first-quarter results next week, the stock market could also have a decisive role to play in the currency markets. Beyond these factors, the possibility of a yuan revaluation--widely expected sometime in the next three months--will also keep investors on their toes. Given all the uncertainty, analysts see the euro fluctuating next week between $1.30 and $1.35 and the dollar holding between Y90 and Y95. Late afternoon, the euro was changing hands at $1.3505 from $1.3577 late Thursday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y92.13 from Y93.04. 'Greece is definitely casting a shadow over trading right now,' said Brian Kim, currency strategist at UBS in Stamford, Conn. The market exited trade Friday in a distinctly risk-averse mood, with investors clearly favoring the dollar and the yen over growth-sensitive currencies. Investors increasingly expect Greece will be forced to tap emergency loans, but there's widespread uncertainty about whether the loans will be sufficient. Athens has yet to request support for its debt woes, despite a EUR30 billion aid package the European Union and International Monetary Fund crafted for it. 'There are no clear gauges on what's going to happen or what's going to be the spark to activate that package,' Kim said. Representatives from the European Union and the European Central Bank as well as International Monetary Fund officials are due to meet in Athens Monday to start formal discussions on an aid package for Greece. On Friday, Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the euro group of finance ministers and the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, said nothing 'noteworthy' will happen Monday regarding the Greek bailout package. The yen, the ultimate safe-haven currency, gained against its rivals Friday as investors fled risky assets after the SEC charged Goldman with fraud. Goldman shares plunged, and other bank shares suffered, too, pressuring the overall stock market. Jitters could persist after the SEC said it will look at other structured finance deals put together by Wall Street that are similar to the Goldman offering. Goldman is just one of several big banks due to report earnings in the week, as earnings season continues. Citigroup posts Monday before the opening bell in New York. Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon and U.S. Bancorp are up later in the week. The global economy will also be on investors' radar screen as global financial leaders gather end-week in Washington for the IMF and World Bank Spring meetings. Stronger-than-expected economic growth data in China this week heightened expectations that China will allow its currency to rise against the U.S. dollar, which would help address global imbalances. The yuan has been held roughly fixed against the dollar since July 2008. In other currencies, the U.K. pound continues to face downward pressure at a time of political uncertainties ahead of the country's general election next month. In Britain's first televised election debate on Thursday, Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg outshone his two front-running rivals, fomenting fears of a hung parliament, an unauspicious outcome from a currency market standpoint. In Canada, investors stand ready to parse a Bank of Canada policy statement, due out Tuesday, for hints of future rate hikes. The central bank has promised to maintain its current benchmark overnight lending rate of 0.25% until July. A stream of better-than-expected economic indicators in Canada has prompted widespread speculation about when the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates, and by how much.
2010/04/19 09:08DJ ECB's Noyer: Europe Is In Period Of Fragile Economic Growth
PARIS -A senior European monetary official reaffirmed Saturday that the European economic recovery remains fragile and 2010 will be a year of redressing post recessionary economic growth.European Central Bank governing board member Christian Noyer said nations must beef up the capacity of their economies to grow. The economies are still faced with uncertainties, he added.Noyer reiterated that the fiscal measures undertaken by Greece to bring its budget deficit and public debt into order have been rigorous and credible.But he cautioned that if governments continue spending at rates that exceed economic growth, public sector deficits and debt will become unmanageable.Noyer is also the head of the French central bank.The official also said he is hopeful employment will resume growing in France and elsewhere within a few months, as economies grow this year.
2010/04/19 07:38=DJ DATA SNAP: UK Rightmove Mar House Price Index +2.6%MM, +6.0%YY
LONDON -U.K. house prices rose sharply in early April from March boosted by activity among cash-rich buyers paying premium prices for homes in desirable areas, despite an increase in the number of properties available for sale, a survey by Rightmove showed Monday.According to Rightmove's latest index, house prices in mid-April rose 2.6% on the month and were 6.0% higher compared with a year earlier.That compares with a minimal 0.1% rise on the month and a 5.3% increase on the year in March.The increase in asking prices is being maintained by still high demand for more desirable--and typically more expensive--properties of which there are still fewer available for sale, the survey shows."Rarer property types in desirable locations are achieving record prices," said Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove. "There is increasing divergence between these different markets, with agents reporting some pockets where a couple of viewings find a cash-rich buyer, whereas a few miles down the road it's taking over 20 viewings to achieve a sale".Rightmove added that so far, pre-election jitters are not stopping sellers entering the housing market."The run up to the election appears to be having little effect on the housing market," Rightmove said. "However, some opinion polls suggest that a hung parliament is still a real possibility, and the uncertainty over who will form the next government may continue for much longer than usual."The ongoing pickup in house prices is in line with other indexes, with lenders Nationwide and Halifax both reporting significant monthly price gains in March.But, the price rises are not expected to continue in the second half of the year as looming tax increases and government spending cuts weigh on confidence and finances."This year more than ever the traditional spring seller window is a price sensitive one, if asking prices continue to rise, all but the most popular locations are building themselves up for some of the gains to be lost later in the year," Shipside said.The average amount of time a property is taking to sell rose to 70 days in early April from just 63 days a month earlier, Rightmove said. The data also show that the average number of properties for sale per estate agent rose for a second straight month to 68 in March from 65 in February. By region, prices rose from March in nine of the 10 regions. The largest gains were a 4.9% monthly price rise in East Anglia, a 4.5% increase in the West Midlands of England and a 3.7% pickup in South-East England in April from March.The only reported house price fall was a 0.7% monthly decline in North-West England, the survey shows.Rightmove measured 129,898 asking prices of properties put on sale by estate agents between Mar 7 and Apr 10.A separate survey also released Monday, suggests that while consumption is set to recover only slowly and cautiously from the deepest recession since World War II, a more upbeat export sector will probably be the engine behind continued economic expansion in 2011."There are good reasons to be optimistic about exports and overseas demand," said Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club. "The immediate prospects for the economy remain dismal and we still think that the U.K. will struggle to achieve 1% growth this year," Spencer said.Web site: www.rightmove.co.uk
Technical Play
BIG BUYs
GBPUSD - 1.5180s
GBPJPY - 139.80s
EURJPY - 123.40s
EURUSD - 1.3390s
BIG SELLs
GBPUSD - 1.5350s
GBPJPY - 141.30s
EURJPY - 124.50s
EURUSD - 1.3520s
GBPUSD - 1.5180s
GBPJPY - 139.80s
EURJPY - 123.40s
EURUSD - 1.3390s
BIG SELLs
GBPUSD - 1.5350s
GBPJPY - 141.30s
EURJPY - 124.50s
EURUSD - 1.3520s
Friday, 16 April 2010
My Forecasts
15:15GMT Waited for the drops to loose power..now I'm taking Longs below 141.70s for GBPJPY. Lookout 3 drive pattern in 60 mins USDJPY chart
03:10GMT GBPJPYs 142.80s & 125.30s are good point for small Longs..
00:00GMT Good Morning Friends, All our pairs are showing -ve/DOWN trend. Caution for JPY crosses as they are about to hit key end levels to complete pattern charts.EURs are risky with flurry of data at 8-9GMT. GBPUSD will try its best to do drop but to a medium level i.e 1.5367 for 76% from High.
03:10GMT GBPJPYs 142.80s & 125.30s are good point for small Longs..
00:00GMT Good Morning Friends, All our pairs are showing -ve/DOWN trend. Caution for JPY crosses as they are about to hit key end levels to complete pattern charts.EURs are risky with flurry of data at 8-9GMT. GBPUSD will try its best to do drop but to a medium level i.e 1.5367 for 76% from High.
Market Rumours
2010/04/16 19:30DJ ECOFIN: ECB Nowotny: Greek Aid Has to Be Updated As We Go
MADRID -It remains unclear for the time being whether the European Union has to make provisions for Greece beyond this year, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council told Dow Jones Newswires Friday. 'We will see. Look, such programs have to be updated continuously,' said Ewald Nowotny, who represents the Austrian Central Bank at the ECB. 'It can't be determined,' he said, when asked whether arrangements would be made to help Greece beyond this year. 'In Hungary, one put such a program in place. That had started in spring [and] the second half wasn't even needed,' Nowotny said. Nowotny was in Madrid for an informal meeting of European Union finance ministers and central bankers Friday and Saturday. Thursday, Greece took another step toward the first sovereign debt bailout in the history of the euro zone. In a letter to European and International Monetary Fund officials, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou asked for formal discussions on an aid package to begin.
2010/04/16 18:16DJ Japan Keeps April View Of Economy Unchanged, Raises Business Sentiment View
TOKYO -The Japanese government kept its view of the economy unchanged in April but sounded cautiously optimistic about the future as stimulus steps will likely lead to an improvement in business and consumer sentiment. 'The economy has been picking up,' though it 'remains in a difficult situation,' the Cabinet Office's monthly economic report released Friday said, using the same assessment wording as in the March report. Still, the government upgraded its view of business sentiment to 'improving' from 'picking up' a month ago after the latest Bank of Japan tankan survey released two weeks ago showed that sentiment at large companies recovered for the fourth straight quarter. Consumers' economic outlook is also likely to keep getting brighter ahead, a government official said. The cautiously optimistic tone of the report suggests the government will refrain from compiling a full-fledged fresh stimulus package for now but instead will use a reserve, totalling Y1 trillion, already set aside in the main budget to bolster the economy. 'At this point I'd like to make efforts to rejuvenate the economy using the reserve for projects such as making schools more earthquake resistant,' Kan said earlier this month, effectively turning down a call for a multi-trillion stimulus package by one of the parties in the ruling coalition. Keisuke Tsumura, Cabinet Office parliamentary secretary, also sounded a little more optimistic about the overall economic outlook, saying 'We've been getting many positive responses from households and firms' about the economic steps the government has taken so far. But the government remained cautious about price falls in April, saying that the country is in 'mild deflation' and it remains one of the 'downside risks' to the overall economy. 'We are not even half way through our fight against deflation. There is still a long way to go ahead,' Tsumua said during a briefing on the report. The core consumer price index declined 1.2% from a year ago in February, dropping for the 12th straight month. Tsumura's remarks suggested that the possibility still remains that the government in the near future may step up pressure on the BOJ to ease monetary policy further.
2010/04/16 18:14DJ German Fin Min: Greece Will Probably Not Need Euro-zone Aid - Radio
BERLIN -Greece will probably not have to tap the aid program promised by the euro-zone countries, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said German radio Suedwestrundfunk Friday. 'We still believe that the Greek are on the right track and that they might not have to assume the aid in the end,' Schaeuble was quoted as saying. He insisted that if Greece wanted to tap the up to EUR30 billion in loans promised from the other euro-zone countries, it 'must pay the market interest rate. We cannot give any interest subsidy, this would cease the validity of the European Stability Pact.' Schaeuble said the government would let state-owned KfW Banking Group provide any loan to Greece and the government would guarantee this loan, for which a legal empowerment is needed but no budget money will be used. Asked about the proposal by the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs to give the European Commission a say on finance ministers' national budgets before lawmakers look at it, Schaeuble said there is a need to talk about the details of the proposal. Radio Web site: www.swr.de/swr2/programm/sendungen/tagesgespraech/-/id=6095346/property=download/nid=660264/fwsp4e/swr2-tagesgespraech-20100416.pdf
2010/04/16 18:05=DJ Forex Focus: Risk Taking Is Not What It Used To Be
LONDON -Taking risks in currencies today is not the same as taking risks yesterday.Conditions for risk-taking now are the best they have been since the credit crunch escalated back in late 2008.As economic data from the U.S. and Asia have shown this week, the global economic recovery continues apace with global inflation pressures remaining subdued.Not only did China report that its inflation rate is lower than expected but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear that monetary tightening isn't on his agenda.In other words, there is little need for an early hike in interest rates and the global economy has hit the so-called "sweet spot" that is ideal for risk takers.This improvement in general investor confidence is evident in stocks with most equity markets headed higher, aided by a particularly strong start to the U.S. earnings season. The unexpectedly high profits from both Intel and JPMorgan Chase bode well as company reporting accelerates next week.As Gareth Berry, a Singapore-based currency strategist for UBS, put it: "The first quarter U.S. earnings season will become increasingly important in evaluating risk sentiment."However, investors are unlikely to make the blanket investment decisions they may have made of old--heading back into high-yielders at the cost of low-yielders in a general shift towards the carry trade.Sure, commodity currencies remain attractive and the highly resilient economies in Asia remain a target.But several more major currencies--the euro, the pound and even the Australian dollar --may well miss out.The euro is the most obvious loser, mired as it is by Greece's ongoing debt problems. Evidence this week that the country can only raise funds at a cost that will complicate its efforts to reduce its budget deficit suggests that the single currency will remain under selling pressure for some time to come.The risk of contagion not only to other euro-zone debtors but also to other emerging markets remains an issue that will continue to dog the single currency as well as riskier markets as a whole.In the case of the pound, any wholesale interest in the currency may be held in abeyance until the market has more convincing evidence that the May 6 general election doesn't end in a hung parliament.Until then, any gains in sterling will be limited, with investors assuming that any new government will have difficulty implementing the fiscal discipline needed to reduce the country's deficit.So, along with Asian currencies, where long positions aren't already too high, the Australian, the Canadian, the New Zealand dollars as well as Nordic currencies all stand to benefit.There are those, though, who caution against counting on an Australian dollar bounce given its close association with China.See the Australian dollar's recent rise against its U.S. counterpart:http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3831Although data Thursday may have showed strong growth and subdued inflation, Michael Hart, a currency strategist with Citigroup, warn of the risks that the policymakers may not engineer a soft landing."With valuation metrics stretched on all fronts, this indicates that significant downside risks are building for the Australian dollar," Hart said..Early Friday in Europe, there was some set back in sentiment as disappointing earnings from Google, speculation over a Chinese rate hike, worries about how Greece's debt bailout will work and more dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen all encouraged investors back into safe havens such as the dollar and the yen at the expense of the euro and high-yielders.At 0745 GMT, the euro was down at $1.3526 from $1.3577 late Thursday in New York, according to EBS. It was also down at Y125.21 from Y126.31, while the dollar fell to Y92.56 from Y93.04.Bloomberg TNI FRX POV Reuters USD/DJ Thomson P/1066 or P/1074
2010/04/16 17:23=DJ DATA SNAP: Euro-Zone Inflation Lower Than First Estimated
LONDON -Consumer prices in the 16 countries that use the euro rose at a slightly slower rate over the 12 months to March than first estimated, and the annual rate of inflation remained well below the European Central bank's target. The European Union statistics agency Eurostat Friday said consumer prices rose by 0.9% from February, and were up 1.4% from March 2009. The year-on-year increase was smaller than Eurostat's first estimate of 1.5% published at the end of March. Even at that lower level, the inflation rate in March picked up sharply from February, when it stood at 0.9%. However, that's unlikely to prompt a response from the European Central Bank. Its goal is to ensure prices stability, a state it defines as an inflation rate close to, but below 2% over the medium term. The inflation rate was pushed higher by clothing prices, which jumped by 7.6% from February, and energy prices, which rose by 2.6% on the month. Over the year, prices for alcohol and tobacco and energy have been significant sources of inflation. But there are few signs that inflationary pressures are building outside of those volatile items. The core rate of inflation--which excludes alcohol, tobacco, energy and food--rose to 1.0% from 0.9% in February, but was down from the 1.1% recorded at the end of 2009. With consumer spending is likely to remain weak as unemployment remains high and wage growth subdued, the ECB is unlikely to raise its key interest rate soon.
2010/04/16 15:03DJ Forex Options: Dollar/Yen Options Up As Downside Hedges In Demand
TOKYO -Dollar/yen currencies options rose slightly in Tokyo Friday as a fall in the underlying exchange rate due to lower U.S. Treasury yields bolstered demand for downside protection. The U.S. unit stood at Y92.72 as of 0400 GMT, down from its New York level of Y93.04 Thursday. Benchmark one-month at-the-money implied volatilities edged higher to 9.70%/10.40% from 9.65%/10.35%. On growing speculation that the dollar will be dragged lower by falling Treasury yields, as the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate in the near future, one player bought one-year at-the-money straddles at 12.65% with unknown face values, an options trader at a Tokyo bank said. Such contracts make money for the holder when exchange rates swing sharply. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 3.836% in New York late Thursday, down from its Wednesday close of 3.861%. Meanwhile, volatilities implied by one-month at-the-money euro/yen options rose to 9.50%/9.90% from 9.35%/9.75% in New York overnight as weak Tokyo shares and lingering Greek debt worries weighed on the spot market. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average was down 1.4% in Tokyo afternoon trading, while the euro was at Y125.54 as of 0400 GMT. But dealers said any sharp gains in options prices will likely be limited down the road. 'There's a feeling that market reaction to the euro's fall stemming from (Greek) debt worries is becoming less volatile as players have largely grown accustomed to' such problems, an options dealer at a major Tokyo bank said. The euro found some relief overnight on an announcement that Greece would meet with the International Monetary Fund on Monday to discuss its financing plan. But investors are still hungry for details of how the plan might work, and without those details, the euro will remain under pressure, dealers said.
2010/04/16 11:29DJ UK Extends Ash Flight Ban For Six More Hours - Air Authority
LONDON (AFP)--The U.K. extended a ban on most non-emergency flights in its airspace by six hours to 1800 GMT Friday due to ash from a volcanic eruption in Iceland, air traffic authorities said.The National Air Traffic Services, or NATS, which manages the U.K.'s airspace, said "restrictions will remain in place in U.K.-controlled airspace until 1900 (U.K. time) today, Friday 16 April, at the earliest."NATS grounded flights over Britain at 1100 GMT Thursday.Flights in Northern Ireland and the Western Isles of Scotland to and from western Scotland might be allowed up to 1200 GMT Friday, the air traffic control service said.-0
2010/04/16 10:27DJ Morgan Stanley Warns Of Euro-Zone 'Chain Of Events' -Report
Morgan Stanley (MS) has warned that the Greek debt crisis is setting off a chain of events that may prompt German withdrawal from the euro zone, with grim implications for investors caught off-guard, according The Daily Telegraph on Friday. 'The backstop package for Greece and the ECB's climb-down on its collateral rules set a bad precedent for other euro area states and make it more likely that the euro area degenerates into a zone of fiscal profligacy, currency weakness, and higher inflationary pressures over time,' said Joachim Fels, head of research, in a note to clients, according to The Telegraph. The U.S. bank said a bail-out for Greece may be necessary to avoid a crisis for Europe's financial system, but warned that it also 'sows the seeds for potentially even bigger problems further down the road,' according to The Telegraph. Newspaper Web site: http://telegraph.co.uk
2010/04/16 10:14*DJ Yellen: US Deficit-GDP Ratio Likely To Fall To 2%-3% From 10%
2010/04/16 10:13*DJ Yellen: Fed Would Allow Interest Rates To Rise To Manage Inflation
2010/04/16 09:59=DJ UPDATE:China Sells $11.5B Of U.S. Treasurys, Remains Top Holder
WASHINGTON -China continued selling U.S. Treasurys for the fourth straight month in February, though it remained the largest foreign holder, the Treasury Department said Thursday. Overall, foreigners were net buyers of long-term U.S. financial assets in February, according to the monthly Treasury International Capital report, known as TIC. China remained a net seller of Treasurys, with its holdings falling $11.5 billion to $877.5 billion, following net sales of $5.8 billion in January. Heavy Treasury sales by China at the end of last year initially set off fears that the largest creditor nation to the U.S. might be shifting out of U.S. assets. But major upward revisions to the data in late February showed that China hadn't ceded its position as top Treasury holder to Japan, as initially thought. China has sold a net $60.8 billion since October, including $34.2 billion in December. Some of the recent selling by China also reflects a rebalancing into longer-term Treasurys, while allowing some short-term bills to expire. China bought a net $4.4 billion in longer-term Treasurys in February. Analysts have stressed not to read too much into the volatile monthly flow data. 'We haven't seen anything that would indicate that there has been a sharp turn away from dollar assets per se, it may be an allocation away from Treasurys to other U.S. dollar-denominated assets,' said UBS currency strategist Brian Kim. Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., said data for March could show a pickup in Chinese purchases, given the rebuilding of the country's reserves that month. 'We remain unwilling to claim that big global reserve managers are dumping USD assets on a sustained basis,' he said in a note, with the overall report suggesting that 'foreigners continue to find U.S. assets attractive.' Among all foreign investors, net purchases of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds totaled $48.1 billion in February, compared with net buying of $61.4 billion in January. Japan, the second largest holder of Treasurys, was a net buyer, increasing its portfolio to $768.5 billion from $765.4 billion in January. More broadly, net purchases of long-term U.S. securities totaled $34.1 billion, following net sales of $3.1 billion the month before. Initially, $900 million in net purchases were reported for January. The monthly Treasury report highlights cross-border acquisitions of securities with maturities of more than one year including nonmarket transactions such as stock swaps and principal repayment on asset-backed securities. The closely watched figure excluding transactions that don't occur on an open market recorded net buying of $47.1 billion in long-term U.S. securities in February, after revised purchases of $15.0 billion the month before. The report's most comprehensive category, 'monthly net TIC flows,' includes nonmarket flows, short-term securities and changes in banks' dollar holdings. This measure of net foreign capital inflow was $9.0 billion, compared with an outflow of $10.2 billion in January. Financial market analysts consider the monthly data from the Treasury Department to be a significant but imprecise gauge of how easily the U.S. can finance its trade deficit. U.S. data released Tuesday showed the trade gap widened more than expected in February, to $39.7 billion from $37.0 billion the month before. Breaking down holdings of long-term Treasurys, private foreign investors bought a net $47.0 billion in notes and bonds, after buying $60.7 billion the previous month. Foreign official institutions such as central banks bought a net $1.1 billion of these Treasurys in February, compared with net purchases of $558 million the month before. Net foreign purchases of debt issued by U.S. government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac totaled $2.4 billion, compared with $5.0 billion in sales in January. For U.S. equities, net foreign purchases totaled $12.9 billion, compared with purchases of $4.5 billion the previous month. For corporate bonds, net foreign sales were $12.0 billion, versus sales of $24.6 billion the previous month. The TIC's data can be found on the Treasury's Web site at: http://www.treas.gov/tic. With each monthly release, Treasury revises the previous month's data as well.
2010/04/16 09:44=DJ BIG PICTURE: Manufacturing Is Still Recovery's Top Dog
NEW YORK -Manufacturing led the U.S. economy out of recession, and the sector is still setting the pace at the start of the second quarter. Even more heartening is that the increase in orders, especially from abroad, and the need to restock inventories mean factories have the momentum to keep growing for the rest of this year. According to the Federal Reserve, manufacturing output jumped 0.9% in March. (A drop in utility use held total industrial production to just a 0.1% increase). Reports from regional Federal Reserve banks show the expansion continued into April. The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index rose to 31.86, from 22.86 in March, and the Philadelphia Fed's business conditions index increased to 20.2 from 18.9. Both April readings were above expectations and were led by increases in orders. Production and payrolls are still well below their prerecession readings, but the factory sector has managed to boost output for three consecutive quarters. Payrolls began to rise in January. What's behind the pick-up? The return of U.S. consumers has helped. Retail sales grew strongly in the first quarter, and production of consumer goods grew at a 4.9% annual rate. Business spending and exports are lending bigger support, however, and should help future growth. That's because companies and developing nations emerged from the global recession with better finances than the U.S. consumer sector did. Makers of business equipment increased production at a 13.2% pace last quarter. Orders for capital goods have been rising, which means further production gains. U.S. businesses are also restocking their shelves and warehouses. Economists at Barclays Capital estimate that inventory rebuilding may have contributed almost two percentage points to first-quarter real gross domestic product growth. Certainly, imports are satisfying part of the restocking, but U.S manufacturers also are benefiting. Production of business materials and construction supplies rose strongly last quarter. Michael Trebing, the senior economist who oversees the Philly Fed survey, said some Philadelphia manufacturers commented that part of the increase in orders reflected their customers rebuilding inventories. As for manufacturers themselves, the inventory indexes compiled by both the New York and Philly Fed banks improved sharply in April, indicating that factories in the two regions are restocking. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are benefiting from the global rebound. The Fed's beige book, released Wednesday, reported that within the Chicago district, export activity 'remained strong with developing countries providing a boost to demand.' Also in the book, the Richmond Fed said port activity had picked up, with exports outperforming import gains. 'While the dollar was seen as a contributing factor, most contacts attributed gains in exports primarily to improvements in overseas markets,' the report said. Recovery isn't raising any inflationary red flags either. Manufacturers have little ability to raise prices, according to the New York and Philly Fed surveys. Meanwhile, excess slack in capacity--manufacturers used only 70.0% of their facilities in March--means the rebound in the factory sector shouldn't cause any worries at the Fed about production bottlenecks or shortages that could lead to price pressures. That will allow interest rates to stay low--another plus for capital spending. Then there is the upbeat global outlook. The International Monetary Fund projects emerging nations will grow by about 6% this year and next; emerging Asia alone is expected to expand by above 8%. Cheap financing at home and rising demand abroad will keep U.S. factories busy.
2010/04/16 08:24DJ UK Economy To Grow Faster On Global Demand, Weak Sterling-CEBR
LONDON -The U.K. economy should expand faster in 2011 and 2012 than was previously expected, thanks to stronger global output and greater support from the weak pound, a leading independent consultancy said Friday. U.K. gross domestic product will probably grow 1.3% in 2011, up from a previous estimate of 0.8%, and 1.4% in 2012, up from 1.1%, the Centre for Economics and Business Research said. It maintained its forecast for GDP to grow 1.2% this year. The 2010 forecast is broadly in line with the U.K. treasury's expectations of growth of between 1% and 1.5% in 2010, but the later estimates are significantly weaker than the treasury's, which project growth of 3% to 3.5% in 2011, and 3.25% to 3.75% in 2012. 'The upward revision to growth should not be taken to imply that the pressure is off as far as public finances are concerned,' said Charles Davis, senior economist at the CEBR. 'Whoever wins power will have to take tough decisions--in our view at least GBP35 billion more fiscal action than was assumed in the March Budget.' The CEBR said its forecasts assumed a victory for the opposition Conservative Party in the general election on May 6, based on opinion poll results, which give the party a narrow lead. It noted that although its estimates incorporate the key elements from party manifestos, they assume that pressure from investors to cut the budget deficit will force the next government to slash spending and raise taxes by a greater degree than is currently specified. The U.K. fiscal deficit is estimated to have peaked at 11.8% of gross domestic product in the financial year ending April 5. The Conservative Party has pledged to cut spending this year and to eliminate most of the structural deficit over the next parliament, which can stand until no later than 2015. The ruling Labour Party says it would wait until 2011 when the recovery is firmly established to begin cutting expenditure, and promises to reduce the deficit by two-thirds by 2015. But neither has detailed exactly how they will achieve these targets 'Whoever wins the election, we will be in for a tough couple of years of sluggish growth at best as the budget deficit issue is addressed,' said CEBR Chief Executive Douglas Williams.
2010/04/16 06:19*DJ US Senate Votes 59-38 To Approve Extension Of Jobless Benefits
2010/04/16 06:12=DJ Fed's Lacker: 'Comfortable With Where Interest Rates Are Now'
CHARLOTTE -Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey M. Lacker said Thursday he is comfortable with where interest rates are now, adding the timing of any increase will depend largely on the progression of U.S. economic growth through the year.Decelerating inflation by itself might argue for keeping rates low, Lacker said in response to reporters' questions during the Fed's Credit Markets Symposium in Charlotte. 'But we look at a wide range of things,' he said. 'We've had a couple of months of lower inflation than we had through most of last year, no doubt about that. But how much of a trend it is, it's not clear.''I'm comfortable with interest rates where they are now,' he said. 'The timing's going to depend, in my mind, a lot on how growth comes in over the course of this year.'Earlier this week, Lacker projected moderate economic growth throughout the remainder of the year. He said consumer spending will gradually pick up and businesses will continue to expand outlays on equipment and software, overcoming any drag from commercial real estate or state and local government spending.Growth is 'really helped by the improvement in consumers' confidence, in their job prospects,' Lacker said Thursday. 'That seems to have been improving, and that seems to be driving consumer spending increases.'Based on the most recent labor market reports, Lacker said, 'I fully expect that trend to continue.' News earlier in the day of a surprise jump in the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits 'is just a hiccup,' he noted.'It's too soon to say whether that's a trend or not,' he said.But he acknowledged a risk to the recovery would be if something undermined consumers' confidence in finding or keeping jobs.'On the other hand, it's often difficult to predict how rapidly that confidence improves, and it could improve more rapidly than we expect, so I think there's risks on both side of the outlook,' he said.Lacker said that while mortgage markets still have 'a huge problem to digest,' the dimensions of the foreclosure problem in housing are clear, and housing prices have stabilized.'We have a huge backlog of delinquent mortgage borrowers to deal with,' he said. 'It's going to take some time to work through those, but I think the housing market will muddle along fine.'Lacker isn't a voting member this year of the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, but he has influence on the board's decisions.Lacker has previously expressed his support for the FOMC's decision to keep interest rates near zero for an extended period of time as inflation is expected to stay low well into the future. However, he said earlier this week that recent data have led to him to potentially drop sooner rather than later the use of the low-rate language.Also earlier this week, Lacker said as the Fed works to tame inflation, it must be careful about how and when it withdraws the monetary policy stimulus in place.Lacker's comments came a day after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress he expects the economy to recover slowly, in testimony that appeared to suggest the Fed leader's appetite to raise interest rates hasn't grown. Most private forecasters reckon it won't be until late this year, if not next year, before the central bank begins to raise rates.
2010/04/16 05:55=DJ WORLD FOREX: Euro Falls Broadly As Greece Debt Looms Again
NEW YORK -The euro fell broadly Thursday as sovereign debt woes in fiscally strapped Greece again rattled investors.The common currency found some relief on an announcement that Greece would meet with the International Monetary Fund on Monday to discuss the financing plan the IMF has offered in conjunction with the European Union.The discussions represent a step toward the first sovereign bailout in the history of the euro zone, amid growing doubts that Greece can continue raising money on the financial markets.Investors are still hungry for details of how the plan might work, and without those details, the euro will remain under pressure, said Stuart Bennett, senior currency strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in London. The euro lost nearly 0.6% against the dollar by late trading.Late Thursday, the euro was at $1.3577 from $1.3657 late Wednesday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y93.04 from Y93.18, while the euro was at Y126.31 from Y127.28. The U.K. pound was at $1.5498 from $1.5469. The dollar was at CHF1.0563 from CHF1.0517.The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 80.475 from 80.186.'It's a drawn-out soap opera,' said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, N.J. 'It's not just Greece' but other euro-zone peripheral nations that struggle with issues of sovereign debt that are keeping investors worried, he said. Analysts have worried that Portugal, Spain and perhaps Italy could face similar problems as Greece.A euro-zone backstop package for Greek debt announced over the weekend had propped the common currency to a small degree, and the issuance earlier this week of short-term Greek debt, which had strong demand, lifted some pressure off the euro; but investors worry whether Greece can finance its long-term needs.Pressuring the euro overnight were comments by a Greek official, who said the government now expected to raise 'between $1 billion and $4 billion' from a dollar-denominated bond, compared with $5 billion to $10 billion previously announced.'Fact is, there is no strong interest in the U.S. for Greek debt,' a second official said, adding Athens could cancel the issuance if 'the minimum necessary amount can't be collected.'The Greek government denied anything had changed, saying it would continue with a plan to take the dollar bond on a U.S. road show.Greece may ask for financial assistance from the European Union and the IMF fund as early as this month, a government official told Dow Jones Newswires.'It's increasingly apparent that it's becoming difficult to borrow from the markets,' the official said on condition of anonymity. 'Greece may officially ask for financial help this month or in early May,' said the official, adding that no final decision has been made yet.Continued concerns over Greece should keep the euro under pressure, according to Brown Brothers Harriman analysts in New York. A drop below the psychologically key $1.35 level could see the common currency drop all the way to below $1.33, the analysts said.To see the euro's move against the dollar, please see:http://dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3830Meanwhile, U.S. data released Thursday painted a mixed picture of the economy, with weekly jobless claims and industrial production figures coming in worse than expected, while regional Fed surveys from Philadelphia and New York came in better than expected, lending some support to risk-taking and helping the euro slightly recoup some of its losses against the greenback, Dolan said.Separately, the Canadian dollar ended modestly lower Thursday, slipping below parity with its U.S. counterpart as investors' appetite for risk ebbed and commodities retreated.Late Thursday, the U.S. dollar was at C$1.0022 from C$0.9991 late Wednesday.With the ICE Dollar Index higher, Deutsche Bank's PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bearish exchange-traded fund was down 0.37% from late Wednesday, while its PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish was up 0.38%. The two exchange-traded funds are based on Deutsche Bank currency futures indexes, whose composition mirrors that of the ICE's Dollar Index.
2010/04/16 05:36DJ Treasury Prices Move Higher On Greece Woes, Fed Remarks
NEW YORK -Most Treasury prices rose Thursday as investors continued to monitor developments on helping debt-laden Greece and took to heart U.S. Federal Reserve reassurances that interest rates will remain low for a while. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks Wednesday that rates will stay low for an 'extended period' given the challenges the economy still faces encouraged investors to buy shorter-term Treasurys especially. They are the most sensitive to changes in monetary policy. Bernanke painted a hopeful picture of the economic recovery, but stressed that time is needed for the labor market to truly improve. He also noted that concerns still remain about weak residential and nonresidential construction and fiscally challenged state and local governments. Fed officials Thursday reinforced that stance, contributing to the government bond market's gains. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart said he will continue to support low interest rates to help the economy heal. In afternoon trade, the three- and five-year notes outperformed. The three-year note price was up by 4/32 to yield 1.621%, the five-year was up by 7/32 to yield 2.551%. The two-year was up 2/32 to yield 1.020%, the 10-year was up 5/32 to yield 3.836%, and the 30-year was up 5/32 to yield 4.714%. Meantime, concerns over Greece continued to push the market around as investors fret that a proposed aid package for the country won't be enough to solve its long-term fiscal problems and stave off problems in other nations. Greece worries should continue to affect trading until a clear resolution emerges. 'The uncertainty around Greece and the potential for contagion into other European peripherals is certainly putting a flight-to-quality bid in the Treasury market,' said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group. Moves in the Treasury market, however, were small as investors digested a mixed bag of data and waited for a catalyst to push them to trade with more conviction. 'The real story in the market is that it's been really stable and volatility continues to fall,' said Chris Ahrens, a rates strategist at UBS Securities. 'The data is better,' he said, 'but it's not improving at a rapid-enough rate to drive people to have a lot of conviction.' Data released Thursday showed that New York and Philadelphia-area manufacturers saw business conditions improve in April by more than expected. Weekly jobless claims, however, surged last week, and U.S. industrial production was held back by a sharp drop in utilities output in March. A report Thursday morning on overseas investors' interest in Treasurys confirmed that U.S. government debt remains popular as investors remain wary about the pace of the economic recovery. While there was a small moderation in Treasury buying, the overall level remains healthy, with China, the U.K. and Japan continuing to buy coupons versus bills. The monthly Treasury International Capital report showed China continued selling Treasurys in February, though it remained the largest foreign holder. China's Treasury holdings fell $11.5 billion to $877.5 billion, after net sales of $5.8 billion in January. Some of China's recent selling also reflects a rebalancing into longer-term Treasurys, while allowing some short-term bills to expire. Agency MBS Improve Agency mortgages improved Thursday afternoon after widening out quite a bit in the morning. Modest flows and good selling put pressure on the market. The expected boost from Asian buyers overnight never came, giving the market a weak start. Things deteriorated a bit after that, with risk premiums reaching 130 basis points again, only to retract a bit to 128 basis points over comparable Treasury yields.
2010/04/16 05:34DJ US Stocks Climb To Nearly 19-Month Highs, Led by Industrials-2-
NEW YORK -U.S. stocks climbed to nearly 19-month highs, led by industrial companies including Caterpillar and 3M following reports of improving manufacturing conditions in addition to strong earnings from United Parcel Service.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 21.46 points, or 0.19%, to 11144.57, its highest close since Sept. 19, 2008. Intel (Nasdaq) was the measure's best performer, up 70 cents, or 3%, to 24.22, extending the stock's gains after the chip giant posted strong first-quarter earnings Tuesday afternoon.Caterpillar was also particularly strong, up 94 cents, or 1.4%, to 68.22, while 3M climbed 61 cents, or 0.7%, to 85. The industrial giants were boosted by data that showed manufacturing in the New York and mid-Atlantic areas is improving.Hewlett-Packard was among the Dow's worst performers with a drop of 29 cents, or 0.5%, to 54.23. German and Russian authorities are investigating whether Hewlett-Packard executives paid millions of dollars in bribes to win a contract in Russia, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing people familiar with the matter.Wal-Mart also weighed with a drop of 51 cents, or 0.9%, to 54.13, after the chief executive of its U.K.-based supermarket chain, Asda, set out plans for a big expansion of its stores but said the company is cautious about the economic outlook.The Nasdaq Composite climbed 10.83, or 0.43%, to 2515.69, its highest close since June 5, 2008.The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 1.02, or 0.08%, to 1211.67, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008. The industrial sector led the S&P 500's gains, boosted by UPS. The package-delivery company's first-quarter adjusted earnings rose 37% on improved operating margins across all its segments. The company also boosted its earnings guidance for the full year. UPS jumped 3.44, or 5.3%, to 68.89, and competitor FedEx advanced 1.61, or 1.7%, to 95.62.Thursday marked the sixth straight day of gains across the broad market measures."The slow and steady run continues," said Andrew Fitzpatrick, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. "In general the positive sentiment continues and people are slowly starting to move back into stocks and are less fearful as they see more signs of the recovery and a rising stock market."
2010/04/16 05:24DJ Fed's Lockhart:Won't Seek 'Substantial Changes' To FOMC Language
PENSACOLA, FLA. -Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart said he won't be pushing for 'substantial changes' to the language in the Fed's policy statement at this month's meeting.Lockhart, who is currently a non-voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, affirmed his support to the Fed's commitment to keep interest rates near 0% for an 'extended period,' although he also said that the language will have to be tweaked 'at some point in the future.'Market participants have been closely monitoring statements by Fed officials for any signs as to when the central bank's highly accommodative monetary policy stance may be reversed. As it stands now, rates are likely to remain unchanged at least for another several months.What mix of mechanisms the Fed will use to adjust monetary policy is still up for debate, Lockhart said, but he added that 'asset sales would lag' other tools.In a wide-ranging discussion with members of the Pensacola West Suburban Rotary Club, Lockhart also addressed concerns of small-business owners who continue to worry about their sources of revenue as well as long-term credit.He said that their troubles are also the result of a slowly recovering U.S. consumer and can't be attributed solely to banks' reluctance to lend as freely as they did before the crisis.Damping the economic outlook Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said weekly initial jobless claims rose 24,000 to 484,000 in the week ended April 10, marking the second-straight week of increases in initial claims, when economists had been expecting a decline.But while the labor market continues to look bleak, there has been a recent pick up in retail sales. Lockhart said he wasn't concerned that the data are showing over-consumption.'Over the longer term we need a rebalancing of savings and investment in the country....that transition may be ahead of us,' he said.
2010/04/16 04:48DJ US M1 Fell $12.9B In April 5 Week; M2 Rose $12B
NEW YORK -The Federal Reserve's latest weekly money supply report Thursday shows seasonally adjusted M1 fell by $12.9 billion to $1.707 trillion, while M2 rose $12 billion to $8.503 trillion.The figures are preliminary estimates for the week extending through April 5 and are subject to revisions.More details on the report, along with weekly information on the Fed's custody holdings, repurchase agreements, Treasury portfolio and free reserves, can be found on the Internet at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/.
2010/04/16 01:33*DJ Fed's Lockhart: Recovery Requires Continued Loose Monetary Policy
2010/04/16 01:32*DJ Lockhart: 'Strong Medicine' Of 'Low Rates' Should Remain
2010/04/16 01:31*DJ Lockhart: Economy 'Well Into Recovery'
MADRID -It remains unclear for the time being whether the European Union has to make provisions for Greece beyond this year, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council told Dow Jones Newswires Friday. 'We will see. Look, such programs have to be updated continuously,' said Ewald Nowotny, who represents the Austrian Central Bank at the ECB. 'It can't be determined,' he said, when asked whether arrangements would be made to help Greece beyond this year. 'In Hungary, one put such a program in place. That had started in spring [and] the second half wasn't even needed,' Nowotny said. Nowotny was in Madrid for an informal meeting of European Union finance ministers and central bankers Friday and Saturday. Thursday, Greece took another step toward the first sovereign debt bailout in the history of the euro zone. In a letter to European and International Monetary Fund officials, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou asked for formal discussions on an aid package to begin.
2010/04/16 18:16DJ Japan Keeps April View Of Economy Unchanged, Raises Business Sentiment View
TOKYO -The Japanese government kept its view of the economy unchanged in April but sounded cautiously optimistic about the future as stimulus steps will likely lead to an improvement in business and consumer sentiment. 'The economy has been picking up,' though it 'remains in a difficult situation,' the Cabinet Office's monthly economic report released Friday said, using the same assessment wording as in the March report. Still, the government upgraded its view of business sentiment to 'improving' from 'picking up' a month ago after the latest Bank of Japan tankan survey released two weeks ago showed that sentiment at large companies recovered for the fourth straight quarter. Consumers' economic outlook is also likely to keep getting brighter ahead, a government official said. The cautiously optimistic tone of the report suggests the government will refrain from compiling a full-fledged fresh stimulus package for now but instead will use a reserve, totalling Y1 trillion, already set aside in the main budget to bolster the economy. 'At this point I'd like to make efforts to rejuvenate the economy using the reserve for projects such as making schools more earthquake resistant,' Kan said earlier this month, effectively turning down a call for a multi-trillion stimulus package by one of the parties in the ruling coalition. Keisuke Tsumura, Cabinet Office parliamentary secretary, also sounded a little more optimistic about the overall economic outlook, saying 'We've been getting many positive responses from households and firms' about the economic steps the government has taken so far. But the government remained cautious about price falls in April, saying that the country is in 'mild deflation' and it remains one of the 'downside risks' to the overall economy. 'We are not even half way through our fight against deflation. There is still a long way to go ahead,' Tsumua said during a briefing on the report. The core consumer price index declined 1.2% from a year ago in February, dropping for the 12th straight month. Tsumura's remarks suggested that the possibility still remains that the government in the near future may step up pressure on the BOJ to ease monetary policy further.
2010/04/16 18:14DJ German Fin Min: Greece Will Probably Not Need Euro-zone Aid - Radio
BERLIN -Greece will probably not have to tap the aid program promised by the euro-zone countries, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said German radio Suedwestrundfunk Friday. 'We still believe that the Greek are on the right track and that they might not have to assume the aid in the end,' Schaeuble was quoted as saying. He insisted that if Greece wanted to tap the up to EUR30 billion in loans promised from the other euro-zone countries, it 'must pay the market interest rate. We cannot give any interest subsidy, this would cease the validity of the European Stability Pact.' Schaeuble said the government would let state-owned KfW Banking Group provide any loan to Greece and the government would guarantee this loan, for which a legal empowerment is needed but no budget money will be used. Asked about the proposal by the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs to give the European Commission a say on finance ministers' national budgets before lawmakers look at it, Schaeuble said there is a need to talk about the details of the proposal. Radio Web site: www.swr.de/swr2/programm/sendungen/tagesgespraech/-/id=6095346/property=download/nid=660264/fwsp4e/swr2-tagesgespraech-20100416.pdf
2010/04/16 18:05=DJ Forex Focus: Risk Taking Is Not What It Used To Be
LONDON -Taking risks in currencies today is not the same as taking risks yesterday.Conditions for risk-taking now are the best they have been since the credit crunch escalated back in late 2008.As economic data from the U.S. and Asia have shown this week, the global economic recovery continues apace with global inflation pressures remaining subdued.Not only did China report that its inflation rate is lower than expected but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear that monetary tightening isn't on his agenda.In other words, there is little need for an early hike in interest rates and the global economy has hit the so-called "sweet spot" that is ideal for risk takers.This improvement in general investor confidence is evident in stocks with most equity markets headed higher, aided by a particularly strong start to the U.S. earnings season. The unexpectedly high profits from both Intel and JPMorgan Chase bode well as company reporting accelerates next week.As Gareth Berry, a Singapore-based currency strategist for UBS, put it: "The first quarter U.S. earnings season will become increasingly important in evaluating risk sentiment."However, investors are unlikely to make the blanket investment decisions they may have made of old--heading back into high-yielders at the cost of low-yielders in a general shift towards the carry trade.Sure, commodity currencies remain attractive and the highly resilient economies in Asia remain a target.But several more major currencies--the euro, the pound and even the Australian dollar --may well miss out.The euro is the most obvious loser, mired as it is by Greece's ongoing debt problems. Evidence this week that the country can only raise funds at a cost that will complicate its efforts to reduce its budget deficit suggests that the single currency will remain under selling pressure for some time to come.The risk of contagion not only to other euro-zone debtors but also to other emerging markets remains an issue that will continue to dog the single currency as well as riskier markets as a whole.In the case of the pound, any wholesale interest in the currency may be held in abeyance until the market has more convincing evidence that the May 6 general election doesn't end in a hung parliament.Until then, any gains in sterling will be limited, with investors assuming that any new government will have difficulty implementing the fiscal discipline needed to reduce the country's deficit.So, along with Asian currencies, where long positions aren't already too high, the Australian, the Canadian, the New Zealand dollars as well as Nordic currencies all stand to benefit.There are those, though, who caution against counting on an Australian dollar bounce given its close association with China.See the Australian dollar's recent rise against its U.S. counterpart:http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3831Although data Thursday may have showed strong growth and subdued inflation, Michael Hart, a currency strategist with Citigroup, warn of the risks that the policymakers may not engineer a soft landing."With valuation metrics stretched on all fronts, this indicates that significant downside risks are building for the Australian dollar," Hart said..Early Friday in Europe, there was some set back in sentiment as disappointing earnings from Google, speculation over a Chinese rate hike, worries about how Greece's debt bailout will work and more dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen all encouraged investors back into safe havens such as the dollar and the yen at the expense of the euro and high-yielders.At 0745 GMT, the euro was down at $1.3526 from $1.3577 late Thursday in New York, according to EBS. It was also down at Y125.21 from Y126.31, while the dollar fell to Y92.56 from Y93.04.Bloomberg TNI FRX POV Reuters USD/DJ Thomson P/1066 or P/1074
2010/04/16 17:23=DJ DATA SNAP: Euro-Zone Inflation Lower Than First Estimated
LONDON -Consumer prices in the 16 countries that use the euro rose at a slightly slower rate over the 12 months to March than first estimated, and the annual rate of inflation remained well below the European Central bank's target. The European Union statistics agency Eurostat Friday said consumer prices rose by 0.9% from February, and were up 1.4% from March 2009. The year-on-year increase was smaller than Eurostat's first estimate of 1.5% published at the end of March. Even at that lower level, the inflation rate in March picked up sharply from February, when it stood at 0.9%. However, that's unlikely to prompt a response from the European Central Bank. Its goal is to ensure prices stability, a state it defines as an inflation rate close to, but below 2% over the medium term. The inflation rate was pushed higher by clothing prices, which jumped by 7.6% from February, and energy prices, which rose by 2.6% on the month. Over the year, prices for alcohol and tobacco and energy have been significant sources of inflation. But there are few signs that inflationary pressures are building outside of those volatile items. The core rate of inflation--which excludes alcohol, tobacco, energy and food--rose to 1.0% from 0.9% in February, but was down from the 1.1% recorded at the end of 2009. With consumer spending is likely to remain weak as unemployment remains high and wage growth subdued, the ECB is unlikely to raise its key interest rate soon.
2010/04/16 15:03DJ Forex Options: Dollar/Yen Options Up As Downside Hedges In Demand
TOKYO -Dollar/yen currencies options rose slightly in Tokyo Friday as a fall in the underlying exchange rate due to lower U.S. Treasury yields bolstered demand for downside protection. The U.S. unit stood at Y92.72 as of 0400 GMT, down from its New York level of Y93.04 Thursday. Benchmark one-month at-the-money implied volatilities edged higher to 9.70%/10.40% from 9.65%/10.35%. On growing speculation that the dollar will be dragged lower by falling Treasury yields, as the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate in the near future, one player bought one-year at-the-money straddles at 12.65% with unknown face values, an options trader at a Tokyo bank said. Such contracts make money for the holder when exchange rates swing sharply. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 3.836% in New York late Thursday, down from its Wednesday close of 3.861%. Meanwhile, volatilities implied by one-month at-the-money euro/yen options rose to 9.50%/9.90% from 9.35%/9.75% in New York overnight as weak Tokyo shares and lingering Greek debt worries weighed on the spot market. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average was down 1.4% in Tokyo afternoon trading, while the euro was at Y125.54 as of 0400 GMT. But dealers said any sharp gains in options prices will likely be limited down the road. 'There's a feeling that market reaction to the euro's fall stemming from (Greek) debt worries is becoming less volatile as players have largely grown accustomed to' such problems, an options dealer at a major Tokyo bank said. The euro found some relief overnight on an announcement that Greece would meet with the International Monetary Fund on Monday to discuss its financing plan. But investors are still hungry for details of how the plan might work, and without those details, the euro will remain under pressure, dealers said.
2010/04/16 11:29DJ UK Extends Ash Flight Ban For Six More Hours - Air Authority
LONDON (AFP)--The U.K. extended a ban on most non-emergency flights in its airspace by six hours to 1800 GMT Friday due to ash from a volcanic eruption in Iceland, air traffic authorities said.The National Air Traffic Services, or NATS, which manages the U.K.'s airspace, said "restrictions will remain in place in U.K.-controlled airspace until 1900 (U.K. time) today, Friday 16 April, at the earliest."NATS grounded flights over Britain at 1100 GMT Thursday.Flights in Northern Ireland and the Western Isles of Scotland to and from western Scotland might be allowed up to 1200 GMT Friday, the air traffic control service said.-0
2010/04/16 10:27DJ Morgan Stanley Warns Of Euro-Zone 'Chain Of Events' -Report
Morgan Stanley (MS) has warned that the Greek debt crisis is setting off a chain of events that may prompt German withdrawal from the euro zone, with grim implications for investors caught off-guard, according The Daily Telegraph on Friday. 'The backstop package for Greece and the ECB's climb-down on its collateral rules set a bad precedent for other euro area states and make it more likely that the euro area degenerates into a zone of fiscal profligacy, currency weakness, and higher inflationary pressures over time,' said Joachim Fels, head of research, in a note to clients, according to The Telegraph. The U.S. bank said a bail-out for Greece may be necessary to avoid a crisis for Europe's financial system, but warned that it also 'sows the seeds for potentially even bigger problems further down the road,' according to The Telegraph. Newspaper Web site: http://telegraph.co.uk
2010/04/16 10:14*DJ Yellen: US Deficit-GDP Ratio Likely To Fall To 2%-3% From 10%
2010/04/16 10:13*DJ Yellen: Fed Would Allow Interest Rates To Rise To Manage Inflation
2010/04/16 09:59=DJ UPDATE:China Sells $11.5B Of U.S. Treasurys, Remains Top Holder
WASHINGTON -China continued selling U.S. Treasurys for the fourth straight month in February, though it remained the largest foreign holder, the Treasury Department said Thursday. Overall, foreigners were net buyers of long-term U.S. financial assets in February, according to the monthly Treasury International Capital report, known as TIC. China remained a net seller of Treasurys, with its holdings falling $11.5 billion to $877.5 billion, following net sales of $5.8 billion in January. Heavy Treasury sales by China at the end of last year initially set off fears that the largest creditor nation to the U.S. might be shifting out of U.S. assets. But major upward revisions to the data in late February showed that China hadn't ceded its position as top Treasury holder to Japan, as initially thought. China has sold a net $60.8 billion since October, including $34.2 billion in December. Some of the recent selling by China also reflects a rebalancing into longer-term Treasurys, while allowing some short-term bills to expire. China bought a net $4.4 billion in longer-term Treasurys in February. Analysts have stressed not to read too much into the volatile monthly flow data. 'We haven't seen anything that would indicate that there has been a sharp turn away from dollar assets per se, it may be an allocation away from Treasurys to other U.S. dollar-denominated assets,' said UBS currency strategist Brian Kim. Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., said data for March could show a pickup in Chinese purchases, given the rebuilding of the country's reserves that month. 'We remain unwilling to claim that big global reserve managers are dumping USD assets on a sustained basis,' he said in a note, with the overall report suggesting that 'foreigners continue to find U.S. assets attractive.' Among all foreign investors, net purchases of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds totaled $48.1 billion in February, compared with net buying of $61.4 billion in January. Japan, the second largest holder of Treasurys, was a net buyer, increasing its portfolio to $768.5 billion from $765.4 billion in January. More broadly, net purchases of long-term U.S. securities totaled $34.1 billion, following net sales of $3.1 billion the month before. Initially, $900 million in net purchases were reported for January. The monthly Treasury report highlights cross-border acquisitions of securities with maturities of more than one year including nonmarket transactions such as stock swaps and principal repayment on asset-backed securities. The closely watched figure excluding transactions that don't occur on an open market recorded net buying of $47.1 billion in long-term U.S. securities in February, after revised purchases of $15.0 billion the month before. The report's most comprehensive category, 'monthly net TIC flows,' includes nonmarket flows, short-term securities and changes in banks' dollar holdings. This measure of net foreign capital inflow was $9.0 billion, compared with an outflow of $10.2 billion in January. Financial market analysts consider the monthly data from the Treasury Department to be a significant but imprecise gauge of how easily the U.S. can finance its trade deficit. U.S. data released Tuesday showed the trade gap widened more than expected in February, to $39.7 billion from $37.0 billion the month before. Breaking down holdings of long-term Treasurys, private foreign investors bought a net $47.0 billion in notes and bonds, after buying $60.7 billion the previous month. Foreign official institutions such as central banks bought a net $1.1 billion of these Treasurys in February, compared with net purchases of $558 million the month before. Net foreign purchases of debt issued by U.S. government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac totaled $2.4 billion, compared with $5.0 billion in sales in January. For U.S. equities, net foreign purchases totaled $12.9 billion, compared with purchases of $4.5 billion the previous month. For corporate bonds, net foreign sales were $12.0 billion, versus sales of $24.6 billion the previous month. The TIC's data can be found on the Treasury's Web site at: http://www.treas.gov/tic. With each monthly release, Treasury revises the previous month's data as well.
2010/04/16 09:44=DJ BIG PICTURE: Manufacturing Is Still Recovery's Top Dog
NEW YORK -Manufacturing led the U.S. economy out of recession, and the sector is still setting the pace at the start of the second quarter. Even more heartening is that the increase in orders, especially from abroad, and the need to restock inventories mean factories have the momentum to keep growing for the rest of this year. According to the Federal Reserve, manufacturing output jumped 0.9% in March. (A drop in utility use held total industrial production to just a 0.1% increase). Reports from regional Federal Reserve banks show the expansion continued into April. The New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing index rose to 31.86, from 22.86 in March, and the Philadelphia Fed's business conditions index increased to 20.2 from 18.9. Both April readings were above expectations and were led by increases in orders. Production and payrolls are still well below their prerecession readings, but the factory sector has managed to boost output for three consecutive quarters. Payrolls began to rise in January. What's behind the pick-up? The return of U.S. consumers has helped. Retail sales grew strongly in the first quarter, and production of consumer goods grew at a 4.9% annual rate. Business spending and exports are lending bigger support, however, and should help future growth. That's because companies and developing nations emerged from the global recession with better finances than the U.S. consumer sector did. Makers of business equipment increased production at a 13.2% pace last quarter. Orders for capital goods have been rising, which means further production gains. U.S. businesses are also restocking their shelves and warehouses. Economists at Barclays Capital estimate that inventory rebuilding may have contributed almost two percentage points to first-quarter real gross domestic product growth. Certainly, imports are satisfying part of the restocking, but U.S manufacturers also are benefiting. Production of business materials and construction supplies rose strongly last quarter. Michael Trebing, the senior economist who oversees the Philly Fed survey, said some Philadelphia manufacturers commented that part of the increase in orders reflected their customers rebuilding inventories. As for manufacturers themselves, the inventory indexes compiled by both the New York and Philly Fed banks improved sharply in April, indicating that factories in the two regions are restocking. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are benefiting from the global rebound. The Fed's beige book, released Wednesday, reported that within the Chicago district, export activity 'remained strong with developing countries providing a boost to demand.' Also in the book, the Richmond Fed said port activity had picked up, with exports outperforming import gains. 'While the dollar was seen as a contributing factor, most contacts attributed gains in exports primarily to improvements in overseas markets,' the report said. Recovery isn't raising any inflationary red flags either. Manufacturers have little ability to raise prices, according to the New York and Philly Fed surveys. Meanwhile, excess slack in capacity--manufacturers used only 70.0% of their facilities in March--means the rebound in the factory sector shouldn't cause any worries at the Fed about production bottlenecks or shortages that could lead to price pressures. That will allow interest rates to stay low--another plus for capital spending. Then there is the upbeat global outlook. The International Monetary Fund projects emerging nations will grow by about 6% this year and next; emerging Asia alone is expected to expand by above 8%. Cheap financing at home and rising demand abroad will keep U.S. factories busy.
2010/04/16 08:24DJ UK Economy To Grow Faster On Global Demand, Weak Sterling-CEBR
LONDON -The U.K. economy should expand faster in 2011 and 2012 than was previously expected, thanks to stronger global output and greater support from the weak pound, a leading independent consultancy said Friday. U.K. gross domestic product will probably grow 1.3% in 2011, up from a previous estimate of 0.8%, and 1.4% in 2012, up from 1.1%, the Centre for Economics and Business Research said. It maintained its forecast for GDP to grow 1.2% this year. The 2010 forecast is broadly in line with the U.K. treasury's expectations of growth of between 1% and 1.5% in 2010, but the later estimates are significantly weaker than the treasury's, which project growth of 3% to 3.5% in 2011, and 3.25% to 3.75% in 2012. 'The upward revision to growth should not be taken to imply that the pressure is off as far as public finances are concerned,' said Charles Davis, senior economist at the CEBR. 'Whoever wins power will have to take tough decisions--in our view at least GBP35 billion more fiscal action than was assumed in the March Budget.' The CEBR said its forecasts assumed a victory for the opposition Conservative Party in the general election on May 6, based on opinion poll results, which give the party a narrow lead. It noted that although its estimates incorporate the key elements from party manifestos, they assume that pressure from investors to cut the budget deficit will force the next government to slash spending and raise taxes by a greater degree than is currently specified. The U.K. fiscal deficit is estimated to have peaked at 11.8% of gross domestic product in the financial year ending April 5. The Conservative Party has pledged to cut spending this year and to eliminate most of the structural deficit over the next parliament, which can stand until no later than 2015. The ruling Labour Party says it would wait until 2011 when the recovery is firmly established to begin cutting expenditure, and promises to reduce the deficit by two-thirds by 2015. But neither has detailed exactly how they will achieve these targets 'Whoever wins the election, we will be in for a tough couple of years of sluggish growth at best as the budget deficit issue is addressed,' said CEBR Chief Executive Douglas Williams.
2010/04/16 06:19*DJ US Senate Votes 59-38 To Approve Extension Of Jobless Benefits
2010/04/16 06:12=DJ Fed's Lacker: 'Comfortable With Where Interest Rates Are Now'
CHARLOTTE -Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey M. Lacker said Thursday he is comfortable with where interest rates are now, adding the timing of any increase will depend largely on the progression of U.S. economic growth through the year.Decelerating inflation by itself might argue for keeping rates low, Lacker said in response to reporters' questions during the Fed's Credit Markets Symposium in Charlotte. 'But we look at a wide range of things,' he said. 'We've had a couple of months of lower inflation than we had through most of last year, no doubt about that. But how much of a trend it is, it's not clear.''I'm comfortable with interest rates where they are now,' he said. 'The timing's going to depend, in my mind, a lot on how growth comes in over the course of this year.'Earlier this week, Lacker projected moderate economic growth throughout the remainder of the year. He said consumer spending will gradually pick up and businesses will continue to expand outlays on equipment and software, overcoming any drag from commercial real estate or state and local government spending.Growth is 'really helped by the improvement in consumers' confidence, in their job prospects,' Lacker said Thursday. 'That seems to have been improving, and that seems to be driving consumer spending increases.'Based on the most recent labor market reports, Lacker said, 'I fully expect that trend to continue.' News earlier in the day of a surprise jump in the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits 'is just a hiccup,' he noted.'It's too soon to say whether that's a trend or not,' he said.But he acknowledged a risk to the recovery would be if something undermined consumers' confidence in finding or keeping jobs.'On the other hand, it's often difficult to predict how rapidly that confidence improves, and it could improve more rapidly than we expect, so I think there's risks on both side of the outlook,' he said.Lacker said that while mortgage markets still have 'a huge problem to digest,' the dimensions of the foreclosure problem in housing are clear, and housing prices have stabilized.'We have a huge backlog of delinquent mortgage borrowers to deal with,' he said. 'It's going to take some time to work through those, but I think the housing market will muddle along fine.'Lacker isn't a voting member this year of the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, but he has influence on the board's decisions.Lacker has previously expressed his support for the FOMC's decision to keep interest rates near zero for an extended period of time as inflation is expected to stay low well into the future. However, he said earlier this week that recent data have led to him to potentially drop sooner rather than later the use of the low-rate language.Also earlier this week, Lacker said as the Fed works to tame inflation, it must be careful about how and when it withdraws the monetary policy stimulus in place.Lacker's comments came a day after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress he expects the economy to recover slowly, in testimony that appeared to suggest the Fed leader's appetite to raise interest rates hasn't grown. Most private forecasters reckon it won't be until late this year, if not next year, before the central bank begins to raise rates.
2010/04/16 05:55=DJ WORLD FOREX: Euro Falls Broadly As Greece Debt Looms Again
NEW YORK -The euro fell broadly Thursday as sovereign debt woes in fiscally strapped Greece again rattled investors.The common currency found some relief on an announcement that Greece would meet with the International Monetary Fund on Monday to discuss the financing plan the IMF has offered in conjunction with the European Union.The discussions represent a step toward the first sovereign bailout in the history of the euro zone, amid growing doubts that Greece can continue raising money on the financial markets.Investors are still hungry for details of how the plan might work, and without those details, the euro will remain under pressure, said Stuart Bennett, senior currency strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in London. The euro lost nearly 0.6% against the dollar by late trading.Late Thursday, the euro was at $1.3577 from $1.3657 late Wednesday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y93.04 from Y93.18, while the euro was at Y126.31 from Y127.28. The U.K. pound was at $1.5498 from $1.5469. The dollar was at CHF1.0563 from CHF1.0517.The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 80.475 from 80.186.'It's a drawn-out soap opera,' said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, N.J. 'It's not just Greece' but other euro-zone peripheral nations that struggle with issues of sovereign debt that are keeping investors worried, he said. Analysts have worried that Portugal, Spain and perhaps Italy could face similar problems as Greece.A euro-zone backstop package for Greek debt announced over the weekend had propped the common currency to a small degree, and the issuance earlier this week of short-term Greek debt, which had strong demand, lifted some pressure off the euro; but investors worry whether Greece can finance its long-term needs.Pressuring the euro overnight were comments by a Greek official, who said the government now expected to raise 'between $1 billion and $4 billion' from a dollar-denominated bond, compared with $5 billion to $10 billion previously announced.'Fact is, there is no strong interest in the U.S. for Greek debt,' a second official said, adding Athens could cancel the issuance if 'the minimum necessary amount can't be collected.'The Greek government denied anything had changed, saying it would continue with a plan to take the dollar bond on a U.S. road show.Greece may ask for financial assistance from the European Union and the IMF fund as early as this month, a government official told Dow Jones Newswires.'It's increasingly apparent that it's becoming difficult to borrow from the markets,' the official said on condition of anonymity. 'Greece may officially ask for financial help this month or in early May,' said the official, adding that no final decision has been made yet.Continued concerns over Greece should keep the euro under pressure, according to Brown Brothers Harriman analysts in New York. A drop below the psychologically key $1.35 level could see the common currency drop all the way to below $1.33, the analysts said.To see the euro's move against the dollar, please see:http://dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3830Meanwhile, U.S. data released Thursday painted a mixed picture of the economy, with weekly jobless claims and industrial production figures coming in worse than expected, while regional Fed surveys from Philadelphia and New York came in better than expected, lending some support to risk-taking and helping the euro slightly recoup some of its losses against the greenback, Dolan said.Separately, the Canadian dollar ended modestly lower Thursday, slipping below parity with its U.S. counterpart as investors' appetite for risk ebbed and commodities retreated.Late Thursday, the U.S. dollar was at C$1.0022 from C$0.9991 late Wednesday.With the ICE Dollar Index higher, Deutsche Bank's PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bearish exchange-traded fund was down 0.37% from late Wednesday, while its PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish was up 0.38%. The two exchange-traded funds are based on Deutsche Bank currency futures indexes, whose composition mirrors that of the ICE's Dollar Index.
2010/04/16 05:36DJ Treasury Prices Move Higher On Greece Woes, Fed Remarks
NEW YORK -Most Treasury prices rose Thursday as investors continued to monitor developments on helping debt-laden Greece and took to heart U.S. Federal Reserve reassurances that interest rates will remain low for a while. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks Wednesday that rates will stay low for an 'extended period' given the challenges the economy still faces encouraged investors to buy shorter-term Treasurys especially. They are the most sensitive to changes in monetary policy. Bernanke painted a hopeful picture of the economic recovery, but stressed that time is needed for the labor market to truly improve. He also noted that concerns still remain about weak residential and nonresidential construction and fiscally challenged state and local governments. Fed officials Thursday reinforced that stance, contributing to the government bond market's gains. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart said he will continue to support low interest rates to help the economy heal. In afternoon trade, the three- and five-year notes outperformed. The three-year note price was up by 4/32 to yield 1.621%, the five-year was up by 7/32 to yield 2.551%. The two-year was up 2/32 to yield 1.020%, the 10-year was up 5/32 to yield 3.836%, and the 30-year was up 5/32 to yield 4.714%. Meantime, concerns over Greece continued to push the market around as investors fret that a proposed aid package for the country won't be enough to solve its long-term fiscal problems and stave off problems in other nations. Greece worries should continue to affect trading until a clear resolution emerges. 'The uncertainty around Greece and the potential for contagion into other European peripherals is certainly putting a flight-to-quality bid in the Treasury market,' said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group. Moves in the Treasury market, however, were small as investors digested a mixed bag of data and waited for a catalyst to push them to trade with more conviction. 'The real story in the market is that it's been really stable and volatility continues to fall,' said Chris Ahrens, a rates strategist at UBS Securities. 'The data is better,' he said, 'but it's not improving at a rapid-enough rate to drive people to have a lot of conviction.' Data released Thursday showed that New York and Philadelphia-area manufacturers saw business conditions improve in April by more than expected. Weekly jobless claims, however, surged last week, and U.S. industrial production was held back by a sharp drop in utilities output in March. A report Thursday morning on overseas investors' interest in Treasurys confirmed that U.S. government debt remains popular as investors remain wary about the pace of the economic recovery. While there was a small moderation in Treasury buying, the overall level remains healthy, with China, the U.K. and Japan continuing to buy coupons versus bills. The monthly Treasury International Capital report showed China continued selling Treasurys in February, though it remained the largest foreign holder. China's Treasury holdings fell $11.5 billion to $877.5 billion, after net sales of $5.8 billion in January. Some of China's recent selling also reflects a rebalancing into longer-term Treasurys, while allowing some short-term bills to expire. Agency MBS Improve Agency mortgages improved Thursday afternoon after widening out quite a bit in the morning. Modest flows and good selling put pressure on the market. The expected boost from Asian buyers overnight never came, giving the market a weak start. Things deteriorated a bit after that, with risk premiums reaching 130 basis points again, only to retract a bit to 128 basis points over comparable Treasury yields.
2010/04/16 05:34DJ US Stocks Climb To Nearly 19-Month Highs, Led by Industrials-2-
NEW YORK -U.S. stocks climbed to nearly 19-month highs, led by industrial companies including Caterpillar and 3M following reports of improving manufacturing conditions in addition to strong earnings from United Parcel Service.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 21.46 points, or 0.19%, to 11144.57, its highest close since Sept. 19, 2008. Intel (Nasdaq) was the measure's best performer, up 70 cents, or 3%, to 24.22, extending the stock's gains after the chip giant posted strong first-quarter earnings Tuesday afternoon.Caterpillar was also particularly strong, up 94 cents, or 1.4%, to 68.22, while 3M climbed 61 cents, or 0.7%, to 85. The industrial giants were boosted by data that showed manufacturing in the New York and mid-Atlantic areas is improving.Hewlett-Packard was among the Dow's worst performers with a drop of 29 cents, or 0.5%, to 54.23. German and Russian authorities are investigating whether Hewlett-Packard executives paid millions of dollars in bribes to win a contract in Russia, according to a Wall Street Journal report citing people familiar with the matter.Wal-Mart also weighed with a drop of 51 cents, or 0.9%, to 54.13, after the chief executive of its U.K.-based supermarket chain, Asda, set out plans for a big expansion of its stores but said the company is cautious about the economic outlook.The Nasdaq Composite climbed 10.83, or 0.43%, to 2515.69, its highest close since June 5, 2008.The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 1.02, or 0.08%, to 1211.67, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008. The industrial sector led the S&P 500's gains, boosted by UPS. The package-delivery company's first-quarter adjusted earnings rose 37% on improved operating margins across all its segments. The company also boosted its earnings guidance for the full year. UPS jumped 3.44, or 5.3%, to 68.89, and competitor FedEx advanced 1.61, or 1.7%, to 95.62.Thursday marked the sixth straight day of gains across the broad market measures."The slow and steady run continues," said Andrew Fitzpatrick, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. "In general the positive sentiment continues and people are slowly starting to move back into stocks and are less fearful as they see more signs of the recovery and a rising stock market."
2010/04/16 05:24DJ Fed's Lockhart:Won't Seek 'Substantial Changes' To FOMC Language
PENSACOLA, FLA. -Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart said he won't be pushing for 'substantial changes' to the language in the Fed's policy statement at this month's meeting.Lockhart, who is currently a non-voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, affirmed his support to the Fed's commitment to keep interest rates near 0% for an 'extended period,' although he also said that the language will have to be tweaked 'at some point in the future.'Market participants have been closely monitoring statements by Fed officials for any signs as to when the central bank's highly accommodative monetary policy stance may be reversed. As it stands now, rates are likely to remain unchanged at least for another several months.What mix of mechanisms the Fed will use to adjust monetary policy is still up for debate, Lockhart said, but he added that 'asset sales would lag' other tools.In a wide-ranging discussion with members of the Pensacola West Suburban Rotary Club, Lockhart also addressed concerns of small-business owners who continue to worry about their sources of revenue as well as long-term credit.He said that their troubles are also the result of a slowly recovering U.S. consumer and can't be attributed solely to banks' reluctance to lend as freely as they did before the crisis.Damping the economic outlook Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said weekly initial jobless claims rose 24,000 to 484,000 in the week ended April 10, marking the second-straight week of increases in initial claims, when economists had been expecting a decline.But while the labor market continues to look bleak, there has been a recent pick up in retail sales. Lockhart said he wasn't concerned that the data are showing over-consumption.'Over the longer term we need a rebalancing of savings and investment in the country....that transition may be ahead of us,' he said.
2010/04/16 04:48DJ US M1 Fell $12.9B In April 5 Week; M2 Rose $12B
NEW YORK -The Federal Reserve's latest weekly money supply report Thursday shows seasonally adjusted M1 fell by $12.9 billion to $1.707 trillion, while M2 rose $12 billion to $8.503 trillion.The figures are preliminary estimates for the week extending through April 5 and are subject to revisions.More details on the report, along with weekly information on the Fed's custody holdings, repurchase agreements, Treasury portfolio and free reserves, can be found on the Internet at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/.
2010/04/16 01:33*DJ Fed's Lockhart: Recovery Requires Continued Loose Monetary Policy
2010/04/16 01:32*DJ Lockhart: 'Strong Medicine' Of 'Low Rates' Should Remain
2010/04/16 01:31*DJ Lockhart: Economy 'Well Into Recovery'
Thursday, 15 April 2010
My Forecasts
10:05GMT EURUSD hit target 1- I guess somebody was waiting for me to give target levels :D... I guess small LONGs are good at this level as Greece s likely to say they are recovering..
07:05GMT EURJPY turned -VE DOWN trend now, very sure GBPJPY will try same after some delay.
06:25GMT Current trend ceilings with GBPUSD target 1.5574, GBPJPY target 145.44, EURJPY target 128.44 where as EURUSD pattern target one - 1.3536 & 1.3372.
00:00GMT Good Morning Friends, Was bit late today, sorry. Current status in our pairs shows - GBPs UP, EURJPY UP & EURUSD DOWN. I believe UP ones will find ceiling not very far and then a drop (chances are at 12:30-13:00 hrs) as USD data release is on. I strongly recommend drop for EURUSD since early this week. But with little movement; I think there will be slow drop (slide) and then recover. EU & UK session open momentum will define the day's trend.
07:05GMT EURJPY turned -VE DOWN trend now, very sure GBPJPY will try same after some delay.
06:25GMT Current trend ceilings with GBPUSD target 1.5574, GBPJPY target 145.44, EURJPY target 128.44 where as EURUSD pattern target one - 1.3536 & 1.3372.
00:00GMT Good Morning Friends, Was bit late today, sorry. Current status in our pairs shows - GBPs UP, EURJPY UP & EURUSD DOWN. I believe UP ones will find ceiling not very far and then a drop (chances are at 12:30-13:00 hrs) as USD data release is on. I strongly recommend drop for EURUSD since early this week. But with little movement; I think there will be slow drop (slide) and then recover. EU & UK session open momentum will define the day's trend.
Market Rumours
2010/04/15 19:50DJ Obama: US In Strong Position With Strong Growth Rates
SYDNEY -President Barack Obama said that the U.S. economy has rebounded more strongly than anyone expected and is in a strong position. 'Given the history of financial crises we have actually managed this and rebounded much more quickly than anybody anticipated,' he said in an interview broadcast Thursday on Australian Broadcasting Corp. television. 'We're in a strong position with strong growth rates to move in a positive direction,' Obama said. But he also said that the U.S. still had long-term problems that needed to be dealt with.
2010/04/15 17:12*DJ China Sets 50% Minimum Downpayment For 2nd-Home Purchases - Xinhua; China Regulator Warns About Risks At Some Foreign Banks In China
BEIJING -China's banking regulator on Thursday warned about risks at some foreign banks operating in China, urging them to improve corporate governance.Some foreign banks are facing liquidity, credit and operational risks, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in a statement, citing its chairman, Liu Mingkang. It didn't name any of the banks.Liu also warned about the 'serious' challenges posed by risks spreading across borders, while the foundation of the world's economic recovery isn't yet firm enough.
2010/04/15 17:05=DJ Forex Focus: Election Polls Leaving Sterling Vulnerable
LONDON -Sterling is still waiting for reassurance that the Conservatives are going to win the May 6 election in the U.K.If this doesn't come soon, a combination of widening yield differentials and increased investor concern about sovereign debt will make the currency even more vulnerable to a nasty fall against the dollar.Since the general election was called just over a week ago, the pound has essentially levitated, with investors showing support on the assumption that the Conservatives will pull ahead in the polls and dispel any fears of a hung parliament.See the pound's performance against the dollar:http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3827However, there has been little sign of this happening just yet. Opinion polls continue to bounce around, giving Conservative leader David Cameron and his band of hopeful cohorts a lead of between six and eight points--enough to establish a majority in the House of Commons but not necessarily enough to ensure a strong enough administration to push through what could prove unpopular measures to reduce the country's budget deficit.In the meantime, the whole issue of national deficits is hardly going away.Hopes that last weekend's Greek bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would relax investor fears and reduce the cost of short-term Greek funding have proved to be illusory.On the contrary, chances remain high that Greece could still default on its debt payments, especially if the cost of longer-term funding remains too high for the country to start reducing its deficit significantly.Thus, sovereign debt is likely to remain right at the top of financial markets' concerns, putting the U.K. debt reduction plans, or lack of them, under even greater scrutiny than before.For the pound, there has been some good news. This week brought news of a sharp decline in the country's trade gap.But, this was driven largely by the recent weakness in the pound making U.K. goods more competitive abroad and the domestic economy remains weak.In fact, other figures, such as the latest housing price figures, show that the property market is cooling off again. Also, consumer confidence appears to have dived because of uncertainty over the election.This suggestion that the U.K. recovery is proving even weaker than anticipated contrasts with data from the U.S. in recent weeks, which are showing more signs of improvement.The U.S. Federal Reserve is also seen edging closer towards some form of policy tightening--a move that will only increase the yield differential between the U.S. and the U.K. and make the pound appear even less attractive to investors in the future.So unless polls start showing that the Conservatives are convincing the electorate that they have what it takes to lead the country, sterling could find itself on an even more slippery slope than it might have been before.Early Thursday, the pound showed its sensitivity to the latest opinion polls by posting gains after a new poll showed that the Conservatives were leading Labour by 12 points in crucial marginal constituencies.This comes ahead of a televised debate between the leaders of all three parties tonight. This is the first time such a debate has been held in the U.K.'s political history and could prove decisive in the election.The pound has risen to $1.5520 from $1.5469 late Wednesday in New York, according to EBS.Elsewhere, general market sentiment was lifted by a combination of strong retail sales in the U.S., strong first-quarter growth in China and continued dovish comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggesting that the Fed isn't about to strat tightening policy yet.The dollar is up at Y93.28 from Y93.18, while the euro has slipped to $1.3647 from $1.3657 but risen to Y127.34 from Y127.28.Bloomberg TNI FRX POV Reuters USD/DJ Thomson P/1066 or P/1074
2010/04/15 16:55DJ Volcanic Ash Halts All Heathrow Flights From 1100 GMT-Operator
LONDON (AFP)--All flights in and out of London's Heathrow Airport and the other airports in the capital will be suspended from 1100 GMT Thursday due to volcanic ash from Iceland, officials said.
2010/04/15 16:44DJ China Yuan Flat But Dollar-Yuan Forwards Drop After Strong Data
SHANGHAI -China's yuan was flat against the U.S. dollar Thursday, after the central bank barely changed the central parity rate, but stronger-than-expected economic growth data heightened appreciation expectations for the Chinese currency and prompted dollar-yuan non-deliverable forwards to drop offshore.Analysts said, however, Beijing may not make a significant change to the yuan in the short term due to government caution over the outlook for exports.On the over-the-counter market, the dollar was at CNY6.8258 at 0730 GMT, almost unchanged from CNY6.8257 late Wednesday. It traded between CNY6.8254 and CNY6.8259.Offshore, dollar-yuan nondeliverable forwards were at 6.6130/6.6230, down from 6.6208/6.6238 late Wednesday.The People's Bank of China set the dollar-yuan central parity rate at 6.8260, compared with 6.8261 in the previous session.China's economy grew 11.9% in the first quarter, the government said Thursday, indicating a continued strong recovery and prompting economists to urge further tightening measures."Of course yuan appreciation pressure rises with stronger economic data, but that's partly offset by a trend that China has been increasing imports and making its economy more balanced," said a Shanghai-based trader at a European bank.China ran a trade deficit of $7.24 billion last month, its first monthly trade deficit in six years. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Yao Jian said Thursday the country's trade surplus will likely shrink by another $100 billion this year, with monthly trade deficits likely for the rest of the first half of 2010.In 2009, China's trade surplus narrowed by nearly $100 billion as its once-robust exports suffered a major slowdown amid the global recession.However, dealers outside of mainland China said political pressures and the possibility of price bubbles forming in property and other assets may prompt China to allow the yuan to rise against the dollar. The currency has been held roughly fixed against the dollar since July 2008."Regarding the currency policy, we believe that the delay of the U.S. Treasury FX report had removed one key political risk and has opened a short window for a move in the yuan...before political pressures heat up again ahead of the U.S. mid-term elections," JPMorgan said in a research note. U.S. mid-term elections will be held in November."We continue to expect the dollar/yuan to resume gradual appreciation in April or in May," said the investment bank, adding the pair will likely reach 6.5 by the end of 2010.Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury decided to delay a semi-annual report to Congress on the currency policies of major trading partners. There was speculation the report would brand China a currency manipulator.-
2010/04/15 16:06DJ ECB's Smaghi: Vague Statements On Greece Not Sufficient
DJ ECB's Smaghi: Vague Statements On Greece Not SufficientBERLIN -European officials underestimated the need for concrete action to help Greece, and their "vague statements" that the country would solve its own problems weren't helpful, European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said Thursday."Vague statements that some event, such as a default, will not occur, are not sufficient to calm the markets," Bini Smaghi said in Kyoto, Japan, according to a prepared speech posted to the ECB's Web site. "Concrete actions are needed. This was not fully understood over the last few months."
2010/04/15 15:27DJ Australian Dollar Up Late, Boosted By China Economic Data
SYDNEY -The Australian dollar traded higher in Asia trade Thursday as robust economic data from China lifted sentiment about Asia once again.Australian bonds pushed lower on both ends of the curve, with the short-end particularly damped by a survey showing growing inflation concerns in the region.A day after a glowing economic report on Singapore fueled gains for several Asian currencies, China fueled a similar move on Thursday. In a wave of mid-day data, Australia's largest trading partner posted an 11.9% increase in its economy for the first quarter, as well as robust data on home prices and industrial production.For the last two sessions, the strong economic reports in the region have been particularly bullish for traders of the Australian dollar, which after drifting around US$0.9000 for much of March, has recently pushed back near its highs from November around US$0.9406.Given the slate of data, Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac, said the Australian dollar probably should be even closer to those November highs. But a quick reversal earlier in the week, when the Australian dollar surged higher over the weekend and on Monday only to pare those gains on Tuesday, has traders a little gun-shy.'Asia doesn't want to be caught long and wrong again,' said Rennie. 'This felt like a day we should have been higher but the buyers never showed up. After trying on Monday and getting it wrong, people didn't want to make the same mistake on a Thursday. Maybe Europe comes in and takes us through.'At 0630 GMT, the Australian dollar was quoted at US$0.9343, up from US$0.9314 late Wednesday. Against the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar was at Y87.155, up from Y87.025.Also at play in the markets, reports from the Melbourne Institute and Westpac Banking Corp. showed Australian consumer inflationary expectations rose in April, while unemployment expectations declined.For April, consumer inflationary expectations rose to 4.1% from 3.2% in March. In addition, the proportion of consumers that expect inflation to be within the Reserve Bank of Australia's band of 2% to 3% declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 15.9% in April from 18.6% in March.These growing inflation worries in Australia have shifted focus to local consumer price inflation data due at end of month, with the trade being to short Australian bonds into the data, said Tony Morriss, senior interest rate strategist with ANZ.After already raising rates at five of its last six meetings, traders are particularly selling short-dated bonds on a belief that with rising inflation, the RBA may need to be even more aggressive.'Households are seeing rising home prices and rising stock prices and their net wealth increasing. It's natural to think that,' added Morris.The June three-year spot contract traded down five ticks at 94.55. The 10-year traded 3.5 ticks lower at 94.12. Still, Morriss said support for the three-year looms at 94.50.-
2010/04/15 15:18DJ EU's Rehn: Greece Won't Default On Debts
BRUSSELS -Greece won't default on its debts, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said Thursday."Default is not an issue. There will be no default," Rehn said during a breakfast discussion in Brussels.Euro-zone finance ministers on Sunday agreed to loan Greece up to EUR30 billion in the first year of any aid program. So far, Greece hasn't asked for financial help.
2010/04/15 15:16DJ Tokyo Shares Rise; Shippers, Steel Shrs Up On China Econ Data -2-
TOKYO -Tokyo stocks rose Thursday as upbeat Chinese economic data helped lift steel, shipping and construction equipment companies, while financials rallied after JPMorgan Chase's robust overnight earnings announcement. 'With worries over the technically overbought nature of the market, external catalysts (such as foreign earnings and economic data) are boosting investor appetite,' said Daiwa Securities market analyst Shinichiro Matsushita. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 68.89 points, or 0.6%, to 11,273.79. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues also rose 7.80 points, or 0.8%, to 998.90. On the Osaka Securities Exchange, June Nikkei 225 futures ended up 60 points, or 0.5%, at 11,270. China's gross domestic product rose 11.9% for the three months ended March, lifting hopes for export demand. Shippers were among today's biggest gainers, with Mitsui O.S.K. jumping 5.1% to Y699 and Kawasaki Kisen adding 4.1% to Y384. The Topix marine transport subindex easily led the board, surging 4.1%. Steelmaker shares also benefited from the Chinese data, rising 1.7% as a group. Bellwether Nippon Steel added 1.4% to Y359, while Kobe Steel rose 6.7%. The latter's announcement of its five-to-ten year mid-term business 'vision' was also received bullishly. Nomura Securities analyst Yuji Matsumoto noted that the plan, which includes entry into China's aluminium forging business, could mean strong mid-term growth prospects. Construction equipment maker Komatsu, another firm with heavy exposure to Chinese markets, rose 1.7% to Y1,943. Financials were also strong, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group gaining 1.6% to Y517 and T&D Holdings up 1.8% to Y2,472 on positive general sentiment after JPMorgan's first-quarter net profit rose 55%. On the other hand, Toyota Motor lost 0.8% to Y3,710 after it said it started conducting safety tests on all of its sport-utility vehicles sold worldwide, following the sales suspension of its Lexus GX 460 model amid concerns that the vehicle could roll over at high speeds. 'Investors have almost priced in Toyota's recall problems, but this news hurts their appetite for Toyota shares,' said a Japanese brokerage manager.
2010/04/15 14:28=DJ WORLD FOREX: Dollar, Euro Tick Up Vs Yen On Higher Asia Stocks -3-
TOKYO -The dollar and euro ticked up against the yen in Asia Thursday as higher regional stocks encouraged non-Japanese hedge funds to buy the two currencies against the safe-haven yen, while Japanese importers also picked up the dollar and euro on a regular settlement day.The dollar's near-term direction depends on whether forthcoming U.S. data and speeches from Federal Reserve Bank members may signal that the U.S. economy remains on a recovery path, which could add to expectations for an earlier-than-expected rate hike, dealers said.During Asian trading Thursday, buying by non-Japanese hedge funds and Japanese importers pushed the dollar to a high of Y93.53, compared with Y93.18 overnight in New York. The euro, meanwhile, rose to a high of Y127.66 from Y127.28.Firm Asian share markets boosted demand for those currencies versus the safe-haven yen. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average index was up 0.5%, while share markets in Australia, Hong Kong and Taiwan were also up.Still, additional gains in the two currencies were limited due to Japanese exporters' substantial sell-orders, said Minoru Shioiri, chief manager of foreign exchange trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. They placed dollar-selling orders around Y93.70, while their euro-selling orders were placed at around Y127.70, he added. As of 0450 GMT, the dollar stood at Y93.36 and the euro at Y127.30.Elsewhere, the release of Chinese data had a negligible impact on the currency markets. The country's gross domestic product grew 11.9% in the first quarter from the same period last year, compared with the median 11.5% forecast of 13 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. The country's consumer price index rose 2.4% on-year in March, compared with the median forecast for a 2.6% increase.'The results were in line with general expectations and the CPI wasn't strong enough to add to speculation that this may persuade China to let the yuan appreciate,' said Yuzo Sakai, a manager at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow.Investors are now focused on U.S. industrial output and weekly jobless claims, both due later in the day, to gauge the development of the world's biggest economy. Better-than-expected numbers may lift the dollar to Y93.80, dealers said.March U.S. industrial production may gain 0.8%, after a 0.1% rise in February, according to economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. Jobless claims are likely to have increased by 445,000, after a 460,000 rise the week before.Other key events include speeches by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart in Pensacola, Florida on the economic outlook. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Lacker will speak in Charlotte, North Carolina and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak in New York.As of 0450 GMT, the euro stood at $1.3636, compared with $1.3657 in New York.
2010/04/15 12:01=DJ MONEY TALKS:Bond Buyers Beware:US Not Isolated From Foreign Boom
NEW YORK -Since last March, stock market investors have been locked in a high-stakes economic debate with their counterparts in the Treasury markets. The latest signals from outside the U.S. suggest that equities investors' glass-half-full view will prevail. When it does, we could see the focus quickly shift to Federal Reserve rate hikes, which means sharply higher Treasury yields and significant pain for bond investors. The debate pits the recovery narrative--highlighted by the Dow Jones Industrial Average piercing 11000 this week--against the 'low for long' story--a slow recovery, with rates remaining low for a long time. 'We have a dumbbell effect,' says Max Wolff, a consultant and economics lecturer at the New School in New York. At one end, Wolff says, are conservative investors such as pension funds and households, who have been blindsided by a brutal recession. Encouraged by the Fed's repeated statements about keeping rates near zero for 'an extended period'--an outlook confirmed by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's cautious comments on the economy Wednesday--they keep their savings in conservative bond funds that plough them into Treasurys. At the other end are hedge funds and other trend-setting risk-takers who have been piling into stocks. They see earnings reports such as the latest from Intel Corp. (INTC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) reflecting a robust recovery for corporate America. What the bears fail to see is that the recovery, and the rate hikes it portends, is being cooked overseas. Just look at the past 24 hours' news flow: --Singapore reported a startling 32.1% annualized increase in first-quarter gross domestic product, prompting its monetary authority to put the Singapore dollar--its main policy lever--on a 'gradual appreciation' path. --Brazil's February retail sales surged 12.3% on the year, fueling speculation that the central bank will hike rates by 0.75 percentage point at its end of April meeting. --South Korea's February unemployment plummeted to 3.8% from 4.4% in January, and Moody's Investors Service upgraded the country's debt rating to A1. The won rallied sharply against the dollar. --China, the common denominator for many of these growth stories, this week will announce an 11.9% on-year expansion in first-quarter GDP, Reuters reported. These trends matter more than ever to U.S. stocks. Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity strategist David Bianco calculates that the proportion of S&P 500 companies' profits derived from overseas operations has gone from 20% in the 1990s to 40% now. Yet official breakdowns show that the broader American economy is still greatly driven by domestic demand. That's what matters to the small investor who's wary of buying stocks and the small-business owner who's reluctant to hire. (The National Federation of Independent Businesses, a key small-business lobby group, said this week its optimism index remains close to levels seen at the height of the recession). The gulf between these two scenarios must eventually narrow. When it does, it's likely to come from positive fallout from the rest of the world in the U.S. rather than from American gloom infecting everyone else. Large U.S. companies that have benefited from overseas sales and a generous corporate bond market are now sufficiently cashed up to boost domestic investment and hiring. Meanwhile, with mortgages holding steady despite the Fed's end of March departure from that market, banks will feel more confident about turning their large cash reserves into credit. This could quite rapidly close the 'slack' in the economy, putting hitherto nonexistent inflation risks onto people's radar screens. The Fed will want to preempt that, which could mean that rate hikes, when they come, will be more aggressive than many expect. Treasurys investors should tread carefully: The dumbbell-shaped investor spread could quickly evolve into something closer to a sledgehammer.
2010/04/15 08:36DJ ECB Wellink: History Shows Greek Bailout Likely To Be Repaid-Report
FRANKFURT -Funds pledged in a possible bailout of fiscally struggling Greece will be repaid as the International Monetary Fund's track record shows, European Central Bank Governing Council member Nout Wellink told German business daily Boersen Zeitung for its Thursday edition.Wellink, who represents the Dutch Central Bank at the ECB, aimed to address public concerns that the Mediterranean country could get transfers from other euro-zone member states.'First of all, it's hard for people at home to imagine paying for a country where people go home at 4 pm and retire at 63,' Wellink is quoted as saying. 'We are trying to convey that there won't be any transfers, rather the money will be repaid.'He pointed to the IMF's successful record and its standards, which the European Union/IMF plan uses as a blueprint for possible aid to Greece. Web site: www.boersen-zeitung.de
2010/04/15 08:31DJ Swiss Government Wants CHF40 Mln Costs From UBS In US Tax Case
ZURICH (AFP)--The Swiss government said Wednesday it planned to ask Swiss banking giant UBS AG (UBS) to pay for some 40 million francs in costs incurred by the state over a tax evasion case with the U.S. The government said in a document published online that it 'decided on April 14 2010, to submit to parliament a federal draft bill that ascribes the fees incurred on the accord of August 19 2009 to UBS.' In a state-brokered settlement last August, UBS warded off a bruising U.S. government lawsuit by agreeing to hand over secret details on about 4,450 clients who are U.S. taxpayers. The Swiss government's assistance in processing these details as well as the legal fees incurred are estimated to reach some CHF40 million. In February, the government had said it would bill UBS for only CHF1 million in costs, as it wasn't possible to pass on the remainder of the costs to the bank under current rules. Even a voluntary payment from UBS may not be accepted, it had said. 'The reason for this is that it must be avoided under all circumstances to give the impression that the decisions of the state administrative assistance authority responsible weren't made entirely independently,' the government had said then.
2010/04/15 08:30*DJ BOJ Shirakawa: Global Econ Has Been Recovering Moderately
2010/04/15 08:15DJ EU Statistician: Goldman Likely Wasn't Only Bank Helping EU Govts
BRUSSELS -Goldman Sachs (GS) probably wasn't the only bank using complex currency transactions to help European Union governments mask their debt levels, the EU's chief statistician said Wednesday. Greece in 2001 conducted a series of currency transactions with Goldman Sachs to hide its debt levels. These transactions came to light as the country plunged into a debt crisis at the beginning of this year. 'It is likely that Goldman Sachs wasn't the only institution,' Eurostat Director General Walter Radermacher told a committee at the European Parliament in Brussels. Other countries, including Germany, Italy, Poland and Belgium, used similar transactions when EU rules still allowed them, Radermacher said. Unlike Greece, these countries have revised past budget data to account for these transactions, he added. 'Greece is the only country that hasn't corrected debt and deficit figures accordingly,' Radermacher said. The chairman of Goldman Sachs Bank USA, E. Gerald Corrigan, is due to speak to the European Parliament's committee later Wednesday.
2010/04/15 07:39DJ UK Consumer Confidence Weakened In March On Econ, Jobs Outlook
LONDON -U.K. consumer confidence weakened significantly in March as people became less optimistic about the outlook for the economy over the next six months, and more pessimistic about the outlook for the jobs market. The headline measure of confidence in a monthly survey released by the Nationwide Building Society Thursday fell sharply, to 72 in March from 81 in February. That will come as a blow to Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is attempting to win the May 6 general election by convincing voters that his Labour government is best placed to nurture the economic recovery. Most recent data and other surveys have suggested that the economic recovery is picking up. The decline in the headline index wiped out all the gains made in the first two months of the year, and brought the measure back to its level in December 2009. The survey was conducted before the March 24 budget. The decline in the headline index was driven by the sudden reversal of what had been a rising feeling of optimism about the outlook for the economy for the rest of this year. The proportion of those surveyed who said the economy will be in better shape in six months' time fell to 33% from 39% in February, while the proportion of those saying it will be in the same condition as now rose to 48% from 44%. There was also a surge in pessimism about the outlook for the jobs market, with 48% of respondents saying there will be fewer jobs available in six months' time, compared to 43% in February. That's despite official figures that show the unemployment rate has started to fall. If sustained, the decline in confidence could threaten the recovery. But it may simply reflect a pickup in uncertainty ahead of the election, which is expected to be the tightest since 1992. Nationwide said a similar increase in concerns about the economic outlook and the jobs market occurred ahead of the last election in 2005. 'With an election looming, more people will be unsure as to whether they will be better or worse off in the coming months,' said Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's chief economist. The central issue of the election campaign is which party is best placed to tackle the huge budget deficit, while inflicting the least damage on the U.K.'s growth prospects. The U.K. only emerged from an 18-month recession in the final quarter of last year, three to six months after most of the rest of the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations. Figures on gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year will be released April 23, and may affect how voters think about the economic outlook, either to the benefit or detriment of the government.
2010/04/15 06:50DJ Fed's Bullard: US Recovery Looks 'Pretty Strong' -Fox Business
DOW JONES NEWSWIRESThe head of the Federal Reserve's St. Louis bank, James Bullard, said Wednesday that he's "encouraged" by signs of recovery in the U.S. economy. "I would say that the recovery is pretty strong right now," he told Fox Business Network, citing positive sales and labor data. Bullard said he expects better GDP growth in the second quarter than in the first.As for a possible increase in interest rates, Bullard said the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee should consider the consequences of keeping rates low for too long. "If you keep rates really low for a long time, it does seem like you're fueling speculative excess," he said, "and that's really what's on people's minds in monetary-policy circles, including the FOMC."Bullard said, however, that the Fed wants to foster the economic recovery through its current policy for the time being. He cautioned that the recovery must look sustainable over a longer period, particularly in terms of employment and the financial services sector, before such a decision could be made."If you start to see healthier jobs growth, then you are on safer ground," he said. The U.S. has a labor market that's more "flexible" than those elsewhere, he said, which means "we might be able to get back to normal faster than some of these other countries."The St. Louis Fed president also said there remain "nagging doubts about the financial sector. "There's been a lot of bank failures this year," he said.Bullard expects more small banks to fail this year, as the so-called watch list has grown, but that rate should begin to taper off in 2011, he said, especially as the economy continues to rebound. He said he doesn't expect to see a large bank fail at this point, given the measures adopted by the federal government during the financial crisis.Regarding the U.S. housing market, Bullard said he doesn't expect it to return to bubble-era levels, but he thinks it will stabilize at a low level before resuming slow growth.Web site: www.foxbusiness.com
2010/04/15 05:59DJ Bernanke: Risk Of Double Dip Back Into Recession Less Than A Few Months Ago
WASHINGTON -The risk of the U.S. economy double-dipping back into recession has receded, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers Wednesday.He said it appeared the U.S. economy is moderately improving and would continue to do so, reducing the risk of the economy falling back into recession.'It looks like we're on a path to moderate recovery,' Bernanke said.The deepest recession the U.S. has endured in more than 70 years ended last year.Bernanke said there are still risks that exist such as fall-out from the economic crisis in Greece or a sudden spike in oil prices.
2010/04/15 03:35*DJ Bullard: US Could See Quicker Job Mkt Rebound Than Other Countries-Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:33*DJ Bullard: Fed Wants To Keep Fostering Recovery -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:32*DJ Bullard: Keeping Rates Low For Too Long Can Help Fuel Speculation -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:28*DJ Bullard: Bank Failures Should Taper Off Next Yr -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:26*DJ Bullard: Recovery Needs To Look Sustainable For Rates To Rise -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:25*DJ Bullard: 'Encouraged' By Signs Of Recovery -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:12*DJ World Bank Head: Greek Rescue Plan Doesn't Fix Underlying Issues
2010/04/15 00:38DJ Fed's Dudley: US Recovery Likely To Be `Muted'
NEW YORK -Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley reiterated Wednesday that the U.S. economic recovery will likely be tepid.In opening comments at a briefing on regional economic activity at the central bank, Dudley said that while there has been some encouraging economic news--such Wednesday's 1.6% increase in March retail sales--'it still seems likely the economic recovery will be more muted.'Dudley didn't comment specifically on the Fed's monetary policy strategy. He noted that the Fed's actions in the last couple of 'truly extraordinary' years appear to have worked to help the weak economy.Dudley said that with households and small and medium-sized banks still under stress, 'the recovery is not likely to be as strong as we would like.'While 'employment has begun to expand' and the unemployment rate appears to have stabilized, it still remains at 9.7%, which Dudley said 'is very unacceptable' to Fed policy makers.At the briefing, New York Fed regional research economists discussed measures of regional economic activity in the Fed district, which ranges from upstate New York to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
2010/04/15 00:03DJ Fed's Bullard: Fed Emergency Programs Worked Pretty Well
NEW YORK -Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Wednesday the central bank's emergency lending efforts during the financial crisis were effective.Bullard, who was speaking from the audience of an event held by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, said the stable of facilities created by the Fed to help bring financial markets back to life fared "pretty well."Bullard made no comments on monetary policy or the economy in his brief comment. Most of the Fed's facilities have wound down as financial market health has improved.
SYDNEY -President Barack Obama said that the U.S. economy has rebounded more strongly than anyone expected and is in a strong position. 'Given the history of financial crises we have actually managed this and rebounded much more quickly than anybody anticipated,' he said in an interview broadcast Thursday on Australian Broadcasting Corp. television. 'We're in a strong position with strong growth rates to move in a positive direction,' Obama said. But he also said that the U.S. still had long-term problems that needed to be dealt with.
2010/04/15 17:12*DJ China Sets 50% Minimum Downpayment For 2nd-Home Purchases - Xinhua; China Regulator Warns About Risks At Some Foreign Banks In China
BEIJING -China's banking regulator on Thursday warned about risks at some foreign banks operating in China, urging them to improve corporate governance.Some foreign banks are facing liquidity, credit and operational risks, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in a statement, citing its chairman, Liu Mingkang. It didn't name any of the banks.Liu also warned about the 'serious' challenges posed by risks spreading across borders, while the foundation of the world's economic recovery isn't yet firm enough.
2010/04/15 17:05=DJ Forex Focus: Election Polls Leaving Sterling Vulnerable
LONDON -Sterling is still waiting for reassurance that the Conservatives are going to win the May 6 election in the U.K.If this doesn't come soon, a combination of widening yield differentials and increased investor concern about sovereign debt will make the currency even more vulnerable to a nasty fall against the dollar.Since the general election was called just over a week ago, the pound has essentially levitated, with investors showing support on the assumption that the Conservatives will pull ahead in the polls and dispel any fears of a hung parliament.See the pound's performance against the dollar:http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3827However, there has been little sign of this happening just yet. Opinion polls continue to bounce around, giving Conservative leader David Cameron and his band of hopeful cohorts a lead of between six and eight points--enough to establish a majority in the House of Commons but not necessarily enough to ensure a strong enough administration to push through what could prove unpopular measures to reduce the country's budget deficit.In the meantime, the whole issue of national deficits is hardly going away.Hopes that last weekend's Greek bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would relax investor fears and reduce the cost of short-term Greek funding have proved to be illusory.On the contrary, chances remain high that Greece could still default on its debt payments, especially if the cost of longer-term funding remains too high for the country to start reducing its deficit significantly.Thus, sovereign debt is likely to remain right at the top of financial markets' concerns, putting the U.K. debt reduction plans, or lack of them, under even greater scrutiny than before.For the pound, there has been some good news. This week brought news of a sharp decline in the country's trade gap.But, this was driven largely by the recent weakness in the pound making U.K. goods more competitive abroad and the domestic economy remains weak.In fact, other figures, such as the latest housing price figures, show that the property market is cooling off again. Also, consumer confidence appears to have dived because of uncertainty over the election.This suggestion that the U.K. recovery is proving even weaker than anticipated contrasts with data from the U.S. in recent weeks, which are showing more signs of improvement.The U.S. Federal Reserve is also seen edging closer towards some form of policy tightening--a move that will only increase the yield differential between the U.S. and the U.K. and make the pound appear even less attractive to investors in the future.So unless polls start showing that the Conservatives are convincing the electorate that they have what it takes to lead the country, sterling could find itself on an even more slippery slope than it might have been before.Early Thursday, the pound showed its sensitivity to the latest opinion polls by posting gains after a new poll showed that the Conservatives were leading Labour by 12 points in crucial marginal constituencies.This comes ahead of a televised debate between the leaders of all three parties tonight. This is the first time such a debate has been held in the U.K.'s political history and could prove decisive in the election.The pound has risen to $1.5520 from $1.5469 late Wednesday in New York, according to EBS.Elsewhere, general market sentiment was lifted by a combination of strong retail sales in the U.S., strong first-quarter growth in China and continued dovish comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggesting that the Fed isn't about to strat tightening policy yet.The dollar is up at Y93.28 from Y93.18, while the euro has slipped to $1.3647 from $1.3657 but risen to Y127.34 from Y127.28.Bloomberg TNI FRX POV Reuters USD/DJ Thomson P/1066 or P/1074
2010/04/15 16:55DJ Volcanic Ash Halts All Heathrow Flights From 1100 GMT-Operator
LONDON (AFP)--All flights in and out of London's Heathrow Airport and the other airports in the capital will be suspended from 1100 GMT Thursday due to volcanic ash from Iceland, officials said.
2010/04/15 16:44DJ China Yuan Flat But Dollar-Yuan Forwards Drop After Strong Data
SHANGHAI -China's yuan was flat against the U.S. dollar Thursday, after the central bank barely changed the central parity rate, but stronger-than-expected economic growth data heightened appreciation expectations for the Chinese currency and prompted dollar-yuan non-deliverable forwards to drop offshore.Analysts said, however, Beijing may not make a significant change to the yuan in the short term due to government caution over the outlook for exports.On the over-the-counter market, the dollar was at CNY6.8258 at 0730 GMT, almost unchanged from CNY6.8257 late Wednesday. It traded between CNY6.8254 and CNY6.8259.Offshore, dollar-yuan nondeliverable forwards were at 6.6130/6.6230, down from 6.6208/6.6238 late Wednesday.The People's Bank of China set the dollar-yuan central parity rate at 6.8260, compared with 6.8261 in the previous session.China's economy grew 11.9% in the first quarter, the government said Thursday, indicating a continued strong recovery and prompting economists to urge further tightening measures."Of course yuan appreciation pressure rises with stronger economic data, but that's partly offset by a trend that China has been increasing imports and making its economy more balanced," said a Shanghai-based trader at a European bank.China ran a trade deficit of $7.24 billion last month, its first monthly trade deficit in six years. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Yao Jian said Thursday the country's trade surplus will likely shrink by another $100 billion this year, with monthly trade deficits likely for the rest of the first half of 2010.In 2009, China's trade surplus narrowed by nearly $100 billion as its once-robust exports suffered a major slowdown amid the global recession.However, dealers outside of mainland China said political pressures and the possibility of price bubbles forming in property and other assets may prompt China to allow the yuan to rise against the dollar. The currency has been held roughly fixed against the dollar since July 2008."Regarding the currency policy, we believe that the delay of the U.S. Treasury FX report had removed one key political risk and has opened a short window for a move in the yuan...before political pressures heat up again ahead of the U.S. mid-term elections," JPMorgan said in a research note. U.S. mid-term elections will be held in November."We continue to expect the dollar/yuan to resume gradual appreciation in April or in May," said the investment bank, adding the pair will likely reach 6.5 by the end of 2010.Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury decided to delay a semi-annual report to Congress on the currency policies of major trading partners. There was speculation the report would brand China a currency manipulator.-
2010/04/15 16:06DJ ECB's Smaghi: Vague Statements On Greece Not Sufficient
DJ ECB's Smaghi: Vague Statements On Greece Not SufficientBERLIN -European officials underestimated the need for concrete action to help Greece, and their "vague statements" that the country would solve its own problems weren't helpful, European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said Thursday."Vague statements that some event, such as a default, will not occur, are not sufficient to calm the markets," Bini Smaghi said in Kyoto, Japan, according to a prepared speech posted to the ECB's Web site. "Concrete actions are needed. This was not fully understood over the last few months."
2010/04/15 15:27DJ Australian Dollar Up Late, Boosted By China Economic Data
SYDNEY -The Australian dollar traded higher in Asia trade Thursday as robust economic data from China lifted sentiment about Asia once again.Australian bonds pushed lower on both ends of the curve, with the short-end particularly damped by a survey showing growing inflation concerns in the region.A day after a glowing economic report on Singapore fueled gains for several Asian currencies, China fueled a similar move on Thursday. In a wave of mid-day data, Australia's largest trading partner posted an 11.9% increase in its economy for the first quarter, as well as robust data on home prices and industrial production.For the last two sessions, the strong economic reports in the region have been particularly bullish for traders of the Australian dollar, which after drifting around US$0.9000 for much of March, has recently pushed back near its highs from November around US$0.9406.Given the slate of data, Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac, said the Australian dollar probably should be even closer to those November highs. But a quick reversal earlier in the week, when the Australian dollar surged higher over the weekend and on Monday only to pare those gains on Tuesday, has traders a little gun-shy.'Asia doesn't want to be caught long and wrong again,' said Rennie. 'This felt like a day we should have been higher but the buyers never showed up. After trying on Monday and getting it wrong, people didn't want to make the same mistake on a Thursday. Maybe Europe comes in and takes us through.'At 0630 GMT, the Australian dollar was quoted at US$0.9343, up from US$0.9314 late Wednesday. Against the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar was at Y87.155, up from Y87.025.Also at play in the markets, reports from the Melbourne Institute and Westpac Banking Corp. showed Australian consumer inflationary expectations rose in April, while unemployment expectations declined.For April, consumer inflationary expectations rose to 4.1% from 3.2% in March. In addition, the proportion of consumers that expect inflation to be within the Reserve Bank of Australia's band of 2% to 3% declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 15.9% in April from 18.6% in March.These growing inflation worries in Australia have shifted focus to local consumer price inflation data due at end of month, with the trade being to short Australian bonds into the data, said Tony Morriss, senior interest rate strategist with ANZ.After already raising rates at five of its last six meetings, traders are particularly selling short-dated bonds on a belief that with rising inflation, the RBA may need to be even more aggressive.'Households are seeing rising home prices and rising stock prices and their net wealth increasing. It's natural to think that,' added Morris.The June three-year spot contract traded down five ticks at 94.55. The 10-year traded 3.5 ticks lower at 94.12. Still, Morriss said support for the three-year looms at 94.50.-
2010/04/15 15:18DJ EU's Rehn: Greece Won't Default On Debts
BRUSSELS -Greece won't default on its debts, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said Thursday."Default is not an issue. There will be no default," Rehn said during a breakfast discussion in Brussels.Euro-zone finance ministers on Sunday agreed to loan Greece up to EUR30 billion in the first year of any aid program. So far, Greece hasn't asked for financial help.
2010/04/15 15:16DJ Tokyo Shares Rise; Shippers, Steel Shrs Up On China Econ Data -2-
TOKYO -Tokyo stocks rose Thursday as upbeat Chinese economic data helped lift steel, shipping and construction equipment companies, while financials rallied after JPMorgan Chase's robust overnight earnings announcement. 'With worries over the technically overbought nature of the market, external catalysts (such as foreign earnings and economic data) are boosting investor appetite,' said Daiwa Securities market analyst Shinichiro Matsushita. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 68.89 points, or 0.6%, to 11,273.79. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues also rose 7.80 points, or 0.8%, to 998.90. On the Osaka Securities Exchange, June Nikkei 225 futures ended up 60 points, or 0.5%, at 11,270. China's gross domestic product rose 11.9% for the three months ended March, lifting hopes for export demand. Shippers were among today's biggest gainers, with Mitsui O.S.K. jumping 5.1% to Y699 and Kawasaki Kisen adding 4.1% to Y384. The Topix marine transport subindex easily led the board, surging 4.1%. Steelmaker shares also benefited from the Chinese data, rising 1.7% as a group. Bellwether Nippon Steel added 1.4% to Y359, while Kobe Steel rose 6.7%. The latter's announcement of its five-to-ten year mid-term business 'vision' was also received bullishly. Nomura Securities analyst Yuji Matsumoto noted that the plan, which includes entry into China's aluminium forging business, could mean strong mid-term growth prospects. Construction equipment maker Komatsu, another firm with heavy exposure to Chinese markets, rose 1.7% to Y1,943. Financials were also strong, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group gaining 1.6% to Y517 and T&D Holdings up 1.8% to Y2,472 on positive general sentiment after JPMorgan's first-quarter net profit rose 55%. On the other hand, Toyota Motor lost 0.8% to Y3,710 after it said it started conducting safety tests on all of its sport-utility vehicles sold worldwide, following the sales suspension of its Lexus GX 460 model amid concerns that the vehicle could roll over at high speeds. 'Investors have almost priced in Toyota's recall problems, but this news hurts their appetite for Toyota shares,' said a Japanese brokerage manager.
2010/04/15 14:28=DJ WORLD FOREX: Dollar, Euro Tick Up Vs Yen On Higher Asia Stocks -3-
TOKYO -The dollar and euro ticked up against the yen in Asia Thursday as higher regional stocks encouraged non-Japanese hedge funds to buy the two currencies against the safe-haven yen, while Japanese importers also picked up the dollar and euro on a regular settlement day.The dollar's near-term direction depends on whether forthcoming U.S. data and speeches from Federal Reserve Bank members may signal that the U.S. economy remains on a recovery path, which could add to expectations for an earlier-than-expected rate hike, dealers said.During Asian trading Thursday, buying by non-Japanese hedge funds and Japanese importers pushed the dollar to a high of Y93.53, compared with Y93.18 overnight in New York. The euro, meanwhile, rose to a high of Y127.66 from Y127.28.Firm Asian share markets boosted demand for those currencies versus the safe-haven yen. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average index was up 0.5%, while share markets in Australia, Hong Kong and Taiwan were also up.Still, additional gains in the two currencies were limited due to Japanese exporters' substantial sell-orders, said Minoru Shioiri, chief manager of foreign exchange trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. They placed dollar-selling orders around Y93.70, while their euro-selling orders were placed at around Y127.70, he added. As of 0450 GMT, the dollar stood at Y93.36 and the euro at Y127.30.Elsewhere, the release of Chinese data had a negligible impact on the currency markets. The country's gross domestic product grew 11.9% in the first quarter from the same period last year, compared with the median 11.5% forecast of 13 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. The country's consumer price index rose 2.4% on-year in March, compared with the median forecast for a 2.6% increase.'The results were in line with general expectations and the CPI wasn't strong enough to add to speculation that this may persuade China to let the yuan appreciate,' said Yuzo Sakai, a manager at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow.Investors are now focused on U.S. industrial output and weekly jobless claims, both due later in the day, to gauge the development of the world's biggest economy. Better-than-expected numbers may lift the dollar to Y93.80, dealers said.March U.S. industrial production may gain 0.8%, after a 0.1% rise in February, according to economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. Jobless claims are likely to have increased by 445,000, after a 460,000 rise the week before.Other key events include speeches by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart in Pensacola, Florida on the economic outlook. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Lacker will speak in Charlotte, North Carolina and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak in New York.As of 0450 GMT, the euro stood at $1.3636, compared with $1.3657 in New York.
2010/04/15 12:01=DJ MONEY TALKS:Bond Buyers Beware:US Not Isolated From Foreign Boom
NEW YORK -Since last March, stock market investors have been locked in a high-stakes economic debate with their counterparts in the Treasury markets. The latest signals from outside the U.S. suggest that equities investors' glass-half-full view will prevail. When it does, we could see the focus quickly shift to Federal Reserve rate hikes, which means sharply higher Treasury yields and significant pain for bond investors. The debate pits the recovery narrative--highlighted by the Dow Jones Industrial Average piercing 11000 this week--against the 'low for long' story--a slow recovery, with rates remaining low for a long time. 'We have a dumbbell effect,' says Max Wolff, a consultant and economics lecturer at the New School in New York. At one end, Wolff says, are conservative investors such as pension funds and households, who have been blindsided by a brutal recession. Encouraged by the Fed's repeated statements about keeping rates near zero for 'an extended period'--an outlook confirmed by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's cautious comments on the economy Wednesday--they keep their savings in conservative bond funds that plough them into Treasurys. At the other end are hedge funds and other trend-setting risk-takers who have been piling into stocks. They see earnings reports such as the latest from Intel Corp. (INTC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) reflecting a robust recovery for corporate America. What the bears fail to see is that the recovery, and the rate hikes it portends, is being cooked overseas. Just look at the past 24 hours' news flow: --Singapore reported a startling 32.1% annualized increase in first-quarter gross domestic product, prompting its monetary authority to put the Singapore dollar--its main policy lever--on a 'gradual appreciation' path. --Brazil's February retail sales surged 12.3% on the year, fueling speculation that the central bank will hike rates by 0.75 percentage point at its end of April meeting. --South Korea's February unemployment plummeted to 3.8% from 4.4% in January, and Moody's Investors Service upgraded the country's debt rating to A1. The won rallied sharply against the dollar. --China, the common denominator for many of these growth stories, this week will announce an 11.9% on-year expansion in first-quarter GDP, Reuters reported. These trends matter more than ever to U.S. stocks. Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity strategist David Bianco calculates that the proportion of S&P 500 companies' profits derived from overseas operations has gone from 20% in the 1990s to 40% now. Yet official breakdowns show that the broader American economy is still greatly driven by domestic demand. That's what matters to the small investor who's wary of buying stocks and the small-business owner who's reluctant to hire. (The National Federation of Independent Businesses, a key small-business lobby group, said this week its optimism index remains close to levels seen at the height of the recession). The gulf between these two scenarios must eventually narrow. When it does, it's likely to come from positive fallout from the rest of the world in the U.S. rather than from American gloom infecting everyone else. Large U.S. companies that have benefited from overseas sales and a generous corporate bond market are now sufficiently cashed up to boost domestic investment and hiring. Meanwhile, with mortgages holding steady despite the Fed's end of March departure from that market, banks will feel more confident about turning their large cash reserves into credit. This could quite rapidly close the 'slack' in the economy, putting hitherto nonexistent inflation risks onto people's radar screens. The Fed will want to preempt that, which could mean that rate hikes, when they come, will be more aggressive than many expect. Treasurys investors should tread carefully: The dumbbell-shaped investor spread could quickly evolve into something closer to a sledgehammer.
2010/04/15 08:36DJ ECB Wellink: History Shows Greek Bailout Likely To Be Repaid-Report
FRANKFURT -Funds pledged in a possible bailout of fiscally struggling Greece will be repaid as the International Monetary Fund's track record shows, European Central Bank Governing Council member Nout Wellink told German business daily Boersen Zeitung for its Thursday edition.Wellink, who represents the Dutch Central Bank at the ECB, aimed to address public concerns that the Mediterranean country could get transfers from other euro-zone member states.'First of all, it's hard for people at home to imagine paying for a country where people go home at 4 pm and retire at 63,' Wellink is quoted as saying. 'We are trying to convey that there won't be any transfers, rather the money will be repaid.'He pointed to the IMF's successful record and its standards, which the European Union/IMF plan uses as a blueprint for possible aid to Greece. Web site: www.boersen-zeitung.de
2010/04/15 08:31DJ Swiss Government Wants CHF40 Mln Costs From UBS In US Tax Case
ZURICH (AFP)--The Swiss government said Wednesday it planned to ask Swiss banking giant UBS AG (UBS) to pay for some 40 million francs in costs incurred by the state over a tax evasion case with the U.S. The government said in a document published online that it 'decided on April 14 2010, to submit to parliament a federal draft bill that ascribes the fees incurred on the accord of August 19 2009 to UBS.' In a state-brokered settlement last August, UBS warded off a bruising U.S. government lawsuit by agreeing to hand over secret details on about 4,450 clients who are U.S. taxpayers. The Swiss government's assistance in processing these details as well as the legal fees incurred are estimated to reach some CHF40 million. In February, the government had said it would bill UBS for only CHF1 million in costs, as it wasn't possible to pass on the remainder of the costs to the bank under current rules. Even a voluntary payment from UBS may not be accepted, it had said. 'The reason for this is that it must be avoided under all circumstances to give the impression that the decisions of the state administrative assistance authority responsible weren't made entirely independently,' the government had said then.
2010/04/15 08:30*DJ BOJ Shirakawa: Global Econ Has Been Recovering Moderately
2010/04/15 08:15DJ EU Statistician: Goldman Likely Wasn't Only Bank Helping EU Govts
BRUSSELS -Goldman Sachs (GS) probably wasn't the only bank using complex currency transactions to help European Union governments mask their debt levels, the EU's chief statistician said Wednesday. Greece in 2001 conducted a series of currency transactions with Goldman Sachs to hide its debt levels. These transactions came to light as the country plunged into a debt crisis at the beginning of this year. 'It is likely that Goldman Sachs wasn't the only institution,' Eurostat Director General Walter Radermacher told a committee at the European Parliament in Brussels. Other countries, including Germany, Italy, Poland and Belgium, used similar transactions when EU rules still allowed them, Radermacher said. Unlike Greece, these countries have revised past budget data to account for these transactions, he added. 'Greece is the only country that hasn't corrected debt and deficit figures accordingly,' Radermacher said. The chairman of Goldman Sachs Bank USA, E. Gerald Corrigan, is due to speak to the European Parliament's committee later Wednesday.
2010/04/15 07:39DJ UK Consumer Confidence Weakened In March On Econ, Jobs Outlook
LONDON -U.K. consumer confidence weakened significantly in March as people became less optimistic about the outlook for the economy over the next six months, and more pessimistic about the outlook for the jobs market. The headline measure of confidence in a monthly survey released by the Nationwide Building Society Thursday fell sharply, to 72 in March from 81 in February. That will come as a blow to Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is attempting to win the May 6 general election by convincing voters that his Labour government is best placed to nurture the economic recovery. Most recent data and other surveys have suggested that the economic recovery is picking up. The decline in the headline index wiped out all the gains made in the first two months of the year, and brought the measure back to its level in December 2009. The survey was conducted before the March 24 budget. The decline in the headline index was driven by the sudden reversal of what had been a rising feeling of optimism about the outlook for the economy for the rest of this year. The proportion of those surveyed who said the economy will be in better shape in six months' time fell to 33% from 39% in February, while the proportion of those saying it will be in the same condition as now rose to 48% from 44%. There was also a surge in pessimism about the outlook for the jobs market, with 48% of respondents saying there will be fewer jobs available in six months' time, compared to 43% in February. That's despite official figures that show the unemployment rate has started to fall. If sustained, the decline in confidence could threaten the recovery. But it may simply reflect a pickup in uncertainty ahead of the election, which is expected to be the tightest since 1992. Nationwide said a similar increase in concerns about the economic outlook and the jobs market occurred ahead of the last election in 2005. 'With an election looming, more people will be unsure as to whether they will be better or worse off in the coming months,' said Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's chief economist. The central issue of the election campaign is which party is best placed to tackle the huge budget deficit, while inflicting the least damage on the U.K.'s growth prospects. The U.K. only emerged from an 18-month recession in the final quarter of last year, three to six months after most of the rest of the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations. Figures on gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year will be released April 23, and may affect how voters think about the economic outlook, either to the benefit or detriment of the government.
2010/04/15 06:50DJ Fed's Bullard: US Recovery Looks 'Pretty Strong' -Fox Business
DOW JONES NEWSWIRESThe head of the Federal Reserve's St. Louis bank, James Bullard, said Wednesday that he's "encouraged" by signs of recovery in the U.S. economy. "I would say that the recovery is pretty strong right now," he told Fox Business Network, citing positive sales and labor data. Bullard said he expects better GDP growth in the second quarter than in the first.As for a possible increase in interest rates, Bullard said the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee should consider the consequences of keeping rates low for too long. "If you keep rates really low for a long time, it does seem like you're fueling speculative excess," he said, "and that's really what's on people's minds in monetary-policy circles, including the FOMC."Bullard said, however, that the Fed wants to foster the economic recovery through its current policy for the time being. He cautioned that the recovery must look sustainable over a longer period, particularly in terms of employment and the financial services sector, before such a decision could be made."If you start to see healthier jobs growth, then you are on safer ground," he said. The U.S. has a labor market that's more "flexible" than those elsewhere, he said, which means "we might be able to get back to normal faster than some of these other countries."The St. Louis Fed president also said there remain "nagging doubts about the financial sector. "There's been a lot of bank failures this year," he said.Bullard expects more small banks to fail this year, as the so-called watch list has grown, but that rate should begin to taper off in 2011, he said, especially as the economy continues to rebound. He said he doesn't expect to see a large bank fail at this point, given the measures adopted by the federal government during the financial crisis.Regarding the U.S. housing market, Bullard said he doesn't expect it to return to bubble-era levels, but he thinks it will stabilize at a low level before resuming slow growth.Web site: www.foxbusiness.com
2010/04/15 05:59DJ Bernanke: Risk Of Double Dip Back Into Recession Less Than A Few Months Ago
WASHINGTON -The risk of the U.S. economy double-dipping back into recession has receded, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers Wednesday.He said it appeared the U.S. economy is moderately improving and would continue to do so, reducing the risk of the economy falling back into recession.'It looks like we're on a path to moderate recovery,' Bernanke said.The deepest recession the U.S. has endured in more than 70 years ended last year.Bernanke said there are still risks that exist such as fall-out from the economic crisis in Greece or a sudden spike in oil prices.
2010/04/15 03:35*DJ Bullard: US Could See Quicker Job Mkt Rebound Than Other Countries-Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:33*DJ Bullard: Fed Wants To Keep Fostering Recovery -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:32*DJ Bullard: Keeping Rates Low For Too Long Can Help Fuel Speculation -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:28*DJ Bullard: Bank Failures Should Taper Off Next Yr -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:26*DJ Bullard: Recovery Needs To Look Sustainable For Rates To Rise -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:25*DJ Bullard: 'Encouraged' By Signs Of Recovery -Fox Business
2010/04/15 03:12*DJ World Bank Head: Greek Rescue Plan Doesn't Fix Underlying Issues
2010/04/15 00:38DJ Fed's Dudley: US Recovery Likely To Be `Muted'
NEW YORK -Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley reiterated Wednesday that the U.S. economic recovery will likely be tepid.In opening comments at a briefing on regional economic activity at the central bank, Dudley said that while there has been some encouraging economic news--such Wednesday's 1.6% increase in March retail sales--'it still seems likely the economic recovery will be more muted.'Dudley didn't comment specifically on the Fed's monetary policy strategy. He noted that the Fed's actions in the last couple of 'truly extraordinary' years appear to have worked to help the weak economy.Dudley said that with households and small and medium-sized banks still under stress, 'the recovery is not likely to be as strong as we would like.'While 'employment has begun to expand' and the unemployment rate appears to have stabilized, it still remains at 9.7%, which Dudley said 'is very unacceptable' to Fed policy makers.At the briefing, New York Fed regional research economists discussed measures of regional economic activity in the Fed district, which ranges from upstate New York to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
2010/04/15 00:03DJ Fed's Bullard: Fed Emergency Programs Worked Pretty Well
NEW YORK -Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Wednesday the central bank's emergency lending efforts during the financial crisis were effective.Bullard, who was speaking from the audience of an event held by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, said the stable of facilities created by the Fed to help bring financial markets back to life fared "pretty well."Bullard made no comments on monetary policy or the economy in his brief comment. Most of the Fed's facilities have wound down as financial market health has improved.
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